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Saturday, November 30, 2013

A warming world will further intensify extreme precipitation events

April 4, 2013

Heavy precipitation.

Heavy precipitation.

According to a newly-published NOAA-led study in Geophysical Research Letters, as the globe warms from rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, more moisture in a warmer atmosphere will make the most extreme precipitation events more intense.

The study, conducted by a team of researchers from the North Carolina State University’s Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC), NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the Desert Research Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and ERT, Inc., reports that the extra moisture due to a warmer atmosphere dominates all other factors and leads to notable increases in the most intense precipitation rates.

Percent maximum daily preciptation difference (2071-2100) - (1971-2000).

Percent maximum daily preciptation difference (2071-2100) - (1971-2000).

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

The study also shows a 20-30 percent expected increase in the maximum precipitation possible over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at a high emissions rate.

“We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events,” said Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D., senior research professor at CICS-NC and lead author of the paper.

The paper looked at three factors that go into the maximum precipitation value possible in any given location: moisture in the atmosphere, upward motion of air in the atmosphere, and horizontal winds. The team examined climate model data to understand how a continued course of high greenhouse gas emissions would influence the potential maximum precipitation. While greenhouse gas increases did not substantially change the maximum upward motion of the atmosphere or horizontal winds, the models did show a 20-30 percent increase in maximum moisture in the atmosphere, which led to a corresponding increase in the maximum precipitation value.

Rainy day.

Rainy day.

The findings of this report could inform “design values,” or precipitation amounts, used by water resource managers, insurance and building sectors in modeling the risk due to catastrophic precipitation amounts. Engineers use design values to determine the design of water impoundments and runoff control structures, such as dams, culverts, and detention ponds.

“Our next challenge is to translate this research into local and regional new design values that can be used for identifying risks and mitigating potential disasters. Findings of this study, and others like it, could lead to new information for engineers and developers that will save lives and major infrastructure investments,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., director of NOAA’s NCDC in Asheville, N.C., and co-author on the paper.

The study, Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Climate Change, can be viewed online.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Friday, November 29, 2013

Report finds increases in coastal population growth by 2020 likely, putting more people at risk of extreme weather

March 25, 2013

National Coastal Population Report cover.

National Coastal Population Report cover.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

If current population trends continue, the already crowded U.S. coast will see population grow from 123 million people to nearly 134 million people by 2020, putting more of the population at increased risk from extreme coastal storms like Sandy and Isaac, which severely damaged infrastructure and property last year.

The projection comes from a new report released today from NOAA with input from the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the report, which analyzed data from the 2010 census, 39 percent of the U.S. population is concentrated in counties directly on the shoreline -- less than 10 percent of the total U.S. land area excluding Alaska, and that 52 percent of the total population lives in counties that drain to coastal watersheds, less than 20 percent of U.S. land area, excluding Alaska. A coastal watershed is an area in which water, sediments, and dissolved material drain to a common coastal outlet, like a bay or the ocean.

The National Coastal Population Report: Populations Trends from 1970 to 2020, issued in partnership with the U.S. Census Bureau, updates and expands a 2004 report that detailed and projected coastal population trends from 1980 to 2008.

“People who live near the shore, and managers of these coastal communities, should be aware of how this population growth may affect their coastal areas over time,” said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for the National Ocean Service. “As more people move to the coast, county managers will see a dual challenge -- protecting a growing population from coastal hazards, as well as protecting coastal ecosystems from a growing population.”

Population density is growing at the coast..

Population density is growing at the coast.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

This report offers coastal managers and other users, for the first time, two perspectives on population growth along the U.S. coast -- the traditional perspective that looks at status and trends throughout counties that drain to coastal watersheds, called Coastal Watershed Counties, and a newer focus that focuses only on those counties that directly border the coast, including the Great Lakes.

“Understanding the demographic context of coastal areas is vital for our nation and helps us to meet the challenges of tomorrow. To help inform policymakers and the public through this report, the Census Bureau developed a new measure of coastal populations,” said James Fitzsimmons, assistant chief of the Census Bureau's population division.

Coastal population statistics in the overall total of 769 Coastal Watershed Counties provide context for coastal water quality and coastal ecosystem health related issues, and data from the 452 of those counties that lie directly on the shoreline, called Coastal Shoreline Counties, can be used to talk about coastal resilience, coastal hazards, and other ocean-resource dependent issues.

The coastal shoreline county data was developed with input from both the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“Whether you’re talking about watershed counties or shoreline counties, the coast is substantially more crowded than the U.S. as a whole,” said report editor Kristen Crossett of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “Population density in shoreline counties is more than six times greater than the corresponding inland counties. And the projected growth in coastal areas will increase population density at a faster rate than the country as a whole.”

The report also found that from 1970 to 2010, Coastal Shoreline Counties population increased by 39 percent, and Coastal Watershed Counties population increased by 45 percent.

The report is available on NOAA’s State of the Coast website, which provides quick facts and more detailed statistics through interactive maps, case studies, and management success stories that highlight what is known about coastal communities, coastal ecosystems, and the coastal economy and about how climate change might impact the coast.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Thursday, November 28, 2013

New study suggests coral reefs may be able to adapt to moderate climate change

October 29, 2013

coral bleaching.

A new modeling study shows that widespread bleaching events like this one in Thailand in 2010 will become more common in the future. However, the study also found signs corals may be adapting to warming -- the question is if it can be fast enough to keep up with the rate humans are burning fossil fuels.

High resolution (Credit:C. Mark Eakin/NOAA )

Coral reefs may be able to adapt to moderate climate warming, improving their chance of surviving through the end of this century, if there are large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, according to a study funded by NOAA and conducted by the agency’s scientists and its academic partners. Results further suggest corals have already adapted to part of the warming that has occurred.

“Earlier modeling work suggested that coral reefs would be gone by the middle of this century. Our study shows that if corals can adapt to warming that has occurred over the past 40 to 60 years, some coral reefs may persist through the end of this century,” said study lead author Cheryl Logan, Ph.D., an assistant professor in California State University Monterey Bay’s Division of Science and Environmental Policy. The scientists from the university, and from the University of British Columbia, were NOAA’s partners in the study.

Warm water can contribute to a potentially fatal process known as coral “bleaching,” in which reef-building corals eject algae living inside their tissues. Corals bleach when oceans warm only 1-2°C (2-4°F) above normal summertime temperatures. Because those algae supply the coral with most of its food, prolonged bleaching and associated disease often kills corals.

The study, published online in the journal Global Change Biology, explores a range of possible coral adaptive responses to thermal stress previously identified by the scientific community. It suggests that coral reefs may be more resilient than previously thought due to past studies that did not consider effects of possible adaptation.

The study projected that, through genetic adaptation, the reefs could reduce the currently projected rate of temperature-induced bleaching by 20 to 80 percent of levels expected by the year 2100, if there are large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

“The hope this work brings is only achieved if there is significant reduction of human-related  emissions of heat-trapping gases,” said Mark Eakin, Ph.D., who serves as director of the NOAA Coral Reef Watch monitoring program, which tracks bleaching events worldwide. “Adaptation provides no significant slowing in the loss of coral reefs if we continue to increase our rate of fossil fuel use.”

“Not all species will be able to adapt fast enough or to the same extent, so coral communities will look and function differently than they do today,” CalState’s Logan said.

While this paper focuses on ocean warming, many other general threats to coral species have been documented to exist that affect their long-term survival, such as coral disease, acidification, and sedimentation. Other threats to corals are sea-level rise, pollution, storm damage, destructive fishing practices, and direct harvest for ornamental trade.

According to the Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000 report, coral reefs have been lost around the world in recent decades with almost 20 percent of reefs lost globally to high temperatures during the 1998-1999 El Niño and La Niña and an 80 percent percent loss of coral cover in the Caribbean was documented in a 2003 Science paper. Both rates of decline have subsequently been documented in numerous other studies as an on-going trend.

Tropical coral reef ecosystems are among the most diverse ecosystems in the world, and provide economic and social stability to many nations in the form of food security, where reef fish provide both food and fishing jobs, and economic revenue from tourism. Mass coral bleaching and reef death has increased around the world over the past three decades, raising questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems.

In the study, researchers used global sea surface temperature output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model-2 for the pre-industrial period though 2100 to project rates of coral bleaching.

Because initial results showed that past temperature increases should have bleached reefs more often than has actually occurred, researchers looked into ways that corals may be able to adapt to warming and delay the bleaching process.

The article calls for further research to test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if, and how much, corals can actually respond to increasing thermal stress.

In addition to Logan, the other authors of the paper were John Dunne, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Eakin, NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch; and Simon Donner, Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia. NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program funded the study.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Deep sea ecosystem may take decades to recover from Deepwater Horizon spill

Media ContactNOAA
Ben Sherman
202-253-5256
Keeley Belva
301-713-3066 Texas A&M University Corpus Christi
Cindy McCarrier, 3618252336/
3168710837,

Gloria Gallardo, 361.825.2427 or 361.331.5093 (cell);

Cassandra Hinojosa, 361.825.2337 or 361.658.5829 (cell)

University of Nevada, Reno,
Mike Wolterbee
7757844547
September 24, 2013

Retrieving Sample Cylinders into Gulf - Multicorer sampling operation aboard the RV Gyre.

Retrieving Sample Cylinders into Gulf - Multicorer sampling operation aboard the RV Gyre.

(Credit - with permission from: Texas A&M-University Corpus Christi, Sandra Arismendez.)

The deep­sea soft-sediment ecosystem in the immediate area of the 2010’s Deepwater Horizon well head blowout and subsequent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will likely take decades to recover from the spill’s impacts, according to a scientific paper reported in the online
scientific journal PLoS One.

The paper is the first to give comprehensive results of the spill’s effect on deep­water
communities at the base of the Gulf’s food chain, in its soft­bottom muddy habitats, specifically
looking at biological composition and chemicals at the same time at the same location.

“This is not yet a complete picture,” said Cynthia Cooksey, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal
Ocean Science lead scientist for the spring 2011 cruise to collect additional data from the sites
sampled in fall 2010. “We are now in the process of analyzing data collected from a subsequent
cruise in the spring of 2011. Those data will not be available for another year, but will also
inform how we look at conditions over time.”

“As the principal investigators, we were tasked with determining what impacts might have occurred to the sea floor from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill,” said Paul Montagna, Ph.D., Endowed Chair for Ecosystems and Modeling at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University­Corpus Christi. “We developed an innovative approach to combine tried and true classical statistical techniques with state of the art mapping technologies to create a map of the footprint of the oil spill.”

Sample Cylinders into Gulf - Multicorer sampling operation in Gulf of Mexico on the RV Gyre.

Sample Cylinders into Gulf - Multicorer sampling operation in Gulf of Mexico on the RV Gyre.

(Credit - with permission from: Texas A&M-University Corpus Christi, Sandra Arismendez.)

“Normally, when we investigate offshore drilling sites, we find pollution within 300 to 600 yards
from the site,” said Montagna. “This time it was nearly two miles from the wellhead, with identifiable impacts more than ten miles away. The effect on bottom of the vast underwater plume is something, which until now, no one was able to map. This study shows the devastating effect the spill had on the sea floor itself, and demonstrates the damage to important natural resources.”

“The tremendous biodiversity of meiofauna in the deep­sea area of the Gulf of Mexico we studied has been reduced dramatically,” said Jeff Baguley, Ph.D., University of Nevada, Reno expert on meiofauna, small invertebrates that range in size from 0.042 to 0.300 millimeters in size that live in both marine and fresh water. “Nematode worms have become the dominant group at sites we sampled that were impacted by the oil. So though the overall number of meiofauna may not have changed much, it’s that we’ve lost the incredible biodiversity.”

The oil spill and plume covered almost 360 square miles with the most severe reduction of
biological abundance and biodiversity impacting an area about 9 square miles around the wellhead, and moderate effects seen 57 square miles around the wellhead.

The research team, which included members from University of Nevada,Reno, Texas A&M University­Corpus Christi, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and representatives from BP, is conducting the research for the Technical Working Group of the NOAA­directed Natural Resource Damage Assessment.

Processing Core Sample Cylinder from Gulf - Rick Kalke Harte Research Institute processing multicorer sediment sample aboard the RV Gyre.

Processing Core Sample Cylinder from Gulf - Rick Kalke Harte Research Institute processing multicorer sediment sample aboard the RV Gyre.

(Credit - with permission from: Texas A&M-University Corpus Christi, Sandra Arismendez.)

Others working on the study with Montagna, Baguley, and Cooksey were NOAA scientists, Ian
Hartwell and Jeffrey Hyland.

The PLoS One paper can be found online.

# # #

About HRI: The Harte Research Institute (HRI), an endowed research component of Texas A&M
University­Corpus Christi, is dedicated to advancing the long­term sustainable use and conservation
of the Gulf of Mexico. Expertise at the HRI includes the integration of social and natural
sciences, including policy, economics, ecosystems, fisheries, biodiversity and conservation, and
geospatial science. The HRI is made possible by an endowment from the Ed Harte family. For more
information, go to harteresearchinstitute.org and hrif.org.

About UNR: Founded in 1874 as Nevada’s land­grant university, the University of Nevada, Reno ranks
in the top tier of best national universities. With more than 18,000 students, the University
is driven to contribute a culture of student success, world­improving research and outreach that
enhances communities and business. Part of the Nevada System of Higher Education, the University
has the system’s largest research program and is home to the state’s medical school. With outreach
and education programs in all Nevada counties and home to one of the largest study­abroad
consortiums, the University extends across the state and around the world.

About NOAA’s NCCOS: NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science is the coastal science
office for NOAA’s National Ocean Service. Visit the NCCOS website or follow our blog to
learn more about our research.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Thin, low Arctic clouds played an important role in the massive 2012 Greenland ice melt

April 3, 2013

The ICECAPS Mobile Science Facility at Summit Station against a backdrop of Arctic clouds.

The ICECAPS Mobile Science Facility at Summit Station against a backdrop of Arctic clouds. ICECAPS is short for Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state and Precipitation.

Download here (Credit: CIRES/University of Colorado )

Clouds over the central Greenland Ice Sheet last July were “just right” for driving surface temperatures there above the melting point, according to a new study by scientists at NOAA and the Universities of Wisconsin, Idaho and Colorado. The study, published today in Nature, found that thin, low-lying clouds allowed the sun’s energy to pass through and warm the surface of the ice, while at the same time trapping heat near the surface of the ice cap. This combination played a significant role in last summer's record-breaking melt.

“Thicker cloud conditions would not have led to the same amount of surface warming,” said Matthew Shupe, research meteorologist with NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. “To understand the region’s future, you’ll need to understand its clouds. Our finding has implications for the fate of ice throughout the Arctic.”

Scientists around the world are trying to understand how quickly Greenland is warming because ice melt there contributes to sea level rise globally. The Greenland Ice Sheet is second only to Antarctica in ice volume. In July, more than 97 percent of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface experienced some degree of melting, including at the National Science Foundation’s Summit Station, high atop the ice sheet. According to ice core records, the last time the surface at Summit experienced any degree of melting was in 1889, but it is not known whether this extended across the entire ice sheet.

To investigate whether clouds contributed to, or counteracted, the surface warming that melted the ice, the authors modeled the near-surface conditions. The model was based on observations from a suite of sophisticated atmospheric sensors operated as part of a study called the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric State and Precipitation at Summit.

“The July 2012 ice melt was triggered by an influx of unusually warm air sweeping in from North America, but that was only one factor,” said David Turner, research meteorologist with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory and one of the lead investigators. “In our paper, we show that low-lying clouds containing a low amount of condensed water were instrumental in pushing surface air temperatures up above freezing and causing the surface ice to melt.”

Clouds can cool the surface by reflecting solar energy back into space, and can warm it by radiating heat energy back down to the surface. The balance of those two processes depends on many factors, including wind speed, turbulence, humidity and cloud “thickness,” or liquid water content.

In certain conditions, these clouds can be thin enough to allow some solar radiation to pass through, while still “trapping” infrared radiation at ground level. That is exactly what happened last July: the clouds were just right for maximum surface warming. Thicker clouds would have reflected away more solar radiation; thinner ones couldn’t have trapped as much heat, and in either of those cases, there would have been less surface warming.

The researchers also found these thin, low-lying liquid clouds occur 30 to 50 percent of the time in summer, both over Greenland and across the Arctic. Current climate models tend to underestimate their occurrence in the Arctic, which limits those models’ ability to predict how clouds and their warming or cooling effects may respond to climate change.

“The cloud properties and atmospheric processes observed with the Summit Station instrument array provide a unique dataset to answer the large range of scientific questions we want to address,” said Turner. “Clouds play a big role in the surface mass and energy budgets over the Greenland Ice Sheet. Melting of the world’s major ice sheets can significantly impact human and environmental conditions via its contribution to sea-level rise.”

Better understanding of clouds also improves climate models.

“Our results may help to explain some of the difficulties that current global climate models have in simulating the Arctic surface energy budget, including the contributions of clouds,” said Ralf Bennartz, lead author for the study and professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Above all, this study highlights the importance of continuous and detailed ground-based observations over the Greenland Ice Sheet and elsewhere. Only such detailed observations will lead to a better understanding of the processes that drive Arctic climate.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Monday, November 25, 2013

Free nautical 'BookletCharts' available for boaters

January 28, 2013

One of NOAA's handiest navigation products, especially for recreational boaters, has been Coast Survey's experimental BookletCharts™ -- nautical charts that are easy to download and print from home computers. Coast Survey has now moved the BookletCharts from experimental stage into official production. Nearly a thousand newly updated BookletCharts are available free on the Web.

NOAA's new official BookletCharts cover the 95,000 miles of U.S. coastline and the Great Lakes. The BookletCharts contain most of the information found on NOAA's full-scale nautical charts, but it is presented as reduced-scale.

"It is especially appropriate that we unveil these easy-to-use nautical charts as recreational boaters begin to think about their boating adventures for 2013," said Capt. Jon Swallow, chief of NOAA Coast Survey's Navigation Services Branch. "NOAA's nautical charts help to protect lives and property, and boaters should take advantage of these free nautical products."

"Many boaters don't use nautical charts, trusting local knowledge or their memories. But that can be dangerous, as seafloors constantly shift, shorelines erode, and dangers to navigation are discovered," Swallow said. "BookletCharts will tell a boater about these developments, and will help ensure a safe voyage, whether it is around the bay or down the coast."

Since the Booklet Charts are easy to access from the Web, easy to print, and easy to carry in a pocket, NOAA officials hope that tens of millions of recreational boaters who may not normally use charts will use these.

Several years ago, the Office of Coast Survey introduced experimental BookletCharts as PDFs in an 8½-by-11 inch format, to test public demand and use. The product has been tremendously successfully, receiving kudos by recreational boaters and boating organizations. Coast Survey has subsequently upgraded the chart displays and navigational information for the official product.

While BookletCharts are great for recreational use, they do not fulfill chart carriage requirements for regulated commercial vessels under Titles 33 and 46 of the Code of Federal Regulations.

NOAA's Office of Coast Survey, originally formed by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807, updates the nation's nautical charts, surveys the coastal seafloor, responds to maritime emergencies and searches for underwater obstructions and wreckage that pose a danger to navigation. Follow Coast Survey on Twitter @nauticalcharts, and check out the NOAA Coast Survey blog at http://noaacoastsurvey.wordpress.com for more in-depth coverage of surveying and charting.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Bamford named new assistant administrator for NOAA's National Ocean Service

February 4, 2013

Dr. Holly A. Bamford.

Holly A. Bamford, Ph.D., is the assistant administrator for NOAA's National Ocean Service.

Download here (Credit:NOAA)

Holly A. Bamford, Ph.D., has been named the new assistant NOAA administrator for the agency’s National Ocean Service, succeeding David M. Kennedy who was named the new NOAA deputy under secretary for operations. Prior to her appointment, Bamford served as deputy assistant administrator for NOS.

“Holly not only brings strong scientific credentials to this position, but she also has significant leadership and management expertise. She is particularly well qualified for this position and I'm confident in her ability to lead NOS as it works to support healthy communities and economies,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

“It’s an honor to have been selected for this position,” said Bamford. “The National Ocean Service boasts a diverse portfolio of highly dedicated and extremely knowledge professionals who run excellent programs that serve Americans every day. NOS translates science into action, delivering the information, tools, and technical services needed to support our nation in a multitude of ways.”

As assistant administrator, Bamford oversees NOS, which serves as the lead federal agency providing science-based solutions to address economic, environmental, and social pressures on our oceans and coasts. NOS observes, measures, assesses, and manages the nation’s coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes areas;  provides critical navigation products and services which contribute $729 billion annually to the Gross Domestic Product; and conducts response and restoration activities to protect vital coastal resources.

As deputy assistant administrator, beginning in 2011, she managed the financial and business operations while improving the agency’s performance to meet its ocean science and service missions. During that tenure, she also led a comprehensive review of headquarters functions that identified efficiencies and oversaw implementation of the recommended changes that resulted in enhanced operations and program coordination. 

As the first director of NOAA’s Marine Debris Program in the Office of Response and Restoration, she brought national recognition to the program and the issues related to marine debris, accomplishments that were recognized with a NOAA Administrator’s Award in 2008. Through her work as marine debris director and division chief, Bamford has served on a number of scientific and advisory committees and presented at a number of national and international meetings, academic institutions, as well as addressed the public through national media outlets including CNN, ABC, PBS NewsHour, Good Morning America, Rolling Stone, People, and the Wall Street Journal. 

Her work in establishing the coordinated federal interagency marine debris effort and in addressing the issues behind the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch” earned her finalist status in 2010 for the prestigious Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medal and was highlighted by the Washington Post in its December 21, 2009 Federal Player Profile column.

Bamford has also served on a number of science and advisory committees, including chairperson of the Federal Interagency Marine Debris Coordinating Committee, the U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee, the Potomac Advisory Council, a member of the U.S. delegation at the sixth session of the Law of the Sea, and at the 2007 Ocean Policy Forum in South Korea. 

Throughout her academic and federal service, Bamford has received a number of prestigious awards for the demonstration of exceptional management, leadership, and partnership skills, including a NOAA Bronze Medal, two NOAA Administrator’s Awards, two Coastal America Presidential Partnership Awards, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Gulf Guardian Award.

After graduating from Franklin and Marshall College in 1993 with an undergraduate degree in business administration, Bamford earned both her master’s degree and doctorate in environmental chemistry from the University of Maryland, quantifying the physical and chemical processes that control the transport and fate of organic contaminants. She also spent time as a guest researcher at the National Institute of Standards and Technology developing analytical methods to detect trace organic contaminants in water and air particles.  

Bamford has a number of peer-reviewed publications that have been widely referenced in the field of environmental chemistry and water quality, including papers in Environmental Science & Technology, Atmospheric Environment, and Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry. In her first position at NOAA, Bamford served as a senior member of the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research executive scientific support team.   

Bamford and her family live in Silver Spring, Md.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


View the original article here

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Coastal communities should become TsunamiReady® during Tsunami Preparedness Week, March 24-30

March 25, 2013

NOAA and state and federal agencies that participate in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program are partnering again this year for National Tsunami Preparedness Week, March 24 - 30.  During the week, NOAA urges coastal residents and visitors to be prepared for a tsunami and encourages communities to become TsunamiReady.

 “Improvements in the accuracy and timeliness of tsunami warnings and the way we communicate the threat will help the public stay safe,” said Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. “But this information can save lives and property only if individuals and communities know when and how to take proper action. Collective and individual preparedness is key to building a Weather-Ready Nation.”

NOAA, the lead agency for tsunami detection and warnings in the United States, manages an expanded network of tide gauges and tsunami buoys and monitors seismic stations throughout the world’s oceans to detect tsunamis. If a tsunami threat is detected, NOAA tsunami warning centers broadcast alerts over an advanced telecommunications infrastructure.

A tsunami wave inundating Pago Pago, American Samoa on Sept. 29, 2009.

A tsunami wave inundating Pago Pago, American Samoa on Sept. 29, 2009.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

Communication and education are important parts of the tsunami warning system. Through NOAA’s TsunamiReady program, the National Weather Service works with communities to complete a set of rigorous guidelines necessary to become better prepared for a tsunami. Actions include developing a tsunami safety plan and communications infrastructure, installing tsunami hazard zones and evacuation signs, as well as actively promoting tsunami safety through public awareness activities and training.  Becoming TsunamiReady can help minimize loss to a community.

Everyone can prepare for tsunamis by following these guidelines:

A strong earthquakeA sudden rise or fall of the ocean tideA loud, roaring sound (like an airplane or a train) coming from the oceanStay informed by having multiple sources for weather/tsunami alerts such as a NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards and Weather.gov.  And, sign up for localized alerts from emergency management officials and news outlets. Move inland to higher ground, or into a tall building immediately and stay thereStay away from the beach until officials advise it is safe to return.Once you have taken action tell family, friends, and co-workers to do the same through your social media network. Technology today makes it easier than ever to be a good example and share the vision of a Weather-Ready Nation.

"We don’t know when the next tsunami will occur, but when it does, our resiliency and ability to respond depends on being prepared before it happens,” said Uccellini.   


View the original article here

Friday, November 22, 2013

$3.5 million awarded to help two states address effects of climate change

January 16, 2013

Arizona and New Mexico will receive $3.5 million in grants from NOAA over five years to help them prepare for and adapt to climate variability and change. Seven smaller grants for one- and two-year projects were also awarded this week.

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) funds will go toward projects such as helping New Mexico departments of health and environment to research whether dust levels in a changing climate will affect valley fever, a regional infectious pulmonary disease. The grants will also help drought agencies in both states incorporate climate information into their planning and implementation.

“The southwest United States has the fastest growing population in the nation, yet cities and tribal lands in Arizona and New Mexico are severely affected by drought. These projects will help people understand and make decisions to minimize the risks associated with changing water resources and other challenges posed by a changing climate,” said Richard D. Rosen, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Program Office. “NOAA's smaller awards focused on partnerships between RISA teams and other research and decision making institutions are a valuable mechanism for regional coordination." 

RISA, a program of the Climate Program Office within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, enables local-level interdisciplinary research needed to tackle big challenges such as impacts to water, food, infrastructure, and ecosystems. The program strengthens NOAA’s climate efforts by bringing academic and federal science and service communities together.

The RISA award in the southwest goes to the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), a research consortium at the universities of Arizona and New Mexico. CLIMAS plans to advance long-standing collaborations with water utilities, state and local governments, land and wildlife managers, extension services, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. Its work addresses regional water sustainability, the intersection of climate and human health, economic tradeoffs and opportunities related to water, and socially vulnerable populations.

"The approach we've developed over our 14-year partnership with NOAA has been to work closely with the people of the southwest to identify and address research questions that are important to the region," said Daniel Ferguson, CLIMAS program director. "This approach ensures our work is timely and relevant for public and private sector stakeholders throughout the region so they have the best information available to make vital resource allocation and planning decisions."

NOAA also announced seven multi-year awards totalling $600,000 to existing RISA research teams to encourage collaboration with federal and non-federal partners on climate adaptation. Award funds for years two and beyond are subject to the availability of annual appropriations.

Mark Shafer, University of Oklahoma, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program,  water reservoir data visualization tools: $44,000 Denise Lach, Oregon State University, Climate Impacts Research Consortium, building organizational capacity to adapt to climate change on public lands in the Pacific Northwest: $118,943 Victoria Keener, East West Center - Pacific RISA, mapping the flow of climate and water information in the Pacific Islands: $87,395 Wendy Graham, University of Florida, Southeast Climate Consortium, use of seasonal climate forecasts to minimize short-term operational risks for water supply and ecosystem restoration: $73,737 Michael Crimmins, University of Arizona, CLIMAS, climate and weather services for disaster management: $82,630 Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts at Amherst,  Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northwest, water management knowledge network for the northeastern U.S.: $99,582 William Travis, University of Colorado, Western Water Assessment, building climate science into land and water conservation planning/decision making in the southwest: $99,543RISA teams are part of NOAA’s regional climate services partnerships, which include state climate offices and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Regional Climate Service Directors, and Regional Climate Centers.  The seven new awards to RISA teams will help federal and non-federal partners better use climate information within their own structure.
These awards were coordinated with the interagency United States Global Change Research Program, which leads the US National Climate Assessment. For example, the Pacific Islands RISA will work with the Pacific Islands Department of the Interior Climate Science Center to map the flow of climate and water information throughout stakeholder networks in that region.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at www.noaa.gov and join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Thursday, November 21, 2013

Prepare for severe weather - Be a Force of Nature: know your risk, take action, be an example

March 4, 2013

National Severe Weather Preparedness Week.
NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have partnered again this year for National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, March 3 to 9. During the week, NOAA and FEMA are calling on people across the country to Be a Force of Nature in their communities by preparing for severe weather and encouraging others to do so as well. 

Severe weather is far more common than most realize. The five most dangerous severe weather hazards -- tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning, floods and winter storms, can be powerful and damaging. While spring is considered the height of season, severe weather occurs in every month of the year and in all 50 states. In 2012, there were more than 450 weather related fatalities and more than 2,600 injuries.

“Improvements in the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings, and the way we communicate weather threats are helping the public stay safe,” said Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. “But this information can save lives and property only if individuals and communities know when and how to take proper action. Preparing for severe weather is a component of building a Weather-Ready Nation and is a national priority.” 

“Severe weather can happen anytime, anywhere,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “We urge everyone to take steps in advance and to pledge to prepare, take action and share what you have done with others. You can find information on how to prepare for severe weather at Ready.gov.”

Be a Force of Nature - Every one of us can help our communities prepare for extreme weather by following these guidelines:

Know Your Risk:  The first step to becoming weather-ready is to understand the type of hazardous weather that can affect where you live and work, and how the weather could impact you and your family. Every state in the United States has experienced tornadoes and severe weather, so everyone is exposed to some degree of risk. Check the weather forecast regularly and visit Ready.gov/severeweather to learn more about how to be better prepared and how you can protect your family when severe weather strikes. Take Action, Pledge to Prepare: Be a Force of Nature by making sure that you and your family are prepared for severe weather. Pledge to prepare at Ready.gov. Fill out your family communications plan that you can email to yourself, put together an emergency kit, and keep important papers and valuables in a safe place.
Stay informed by having multiple sources for weather alerts such as a NOAA Weather Radio, Weather.gov, and Wireless Emergency Alerts. And, sign up for localized alerts from emergency management officials.

Be an example: Once you have taken action Be a Force of Nature by telling family, friends, and co-workers to do the same. Share the resources and alert systems you discovered through your social media network. Create a preparedness video and post on a video sharing site; post your story through your social media network and comment on a blog. Technology today makes it easier than ever to be a good example and share the steps you took to help us achieve the vision of a Weather-Ready Nation.
Join us today and pledge to prepare for the severe weather in our area.

In partnership, NOAA and FEMA have developed a tool kit that can be found online that includes key information related to severe weather.  Each day of severe weather week, NOAA and FEMA will share key information on preparedness such as how to develop an emergency plan, what to include in a plan, tips to better understand a forecast, and steps to recovery through our social channels. Follow us today.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Climate change impacts to U.S. coasts threaten public health, safety and economy

January 28, 2013

The report, Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The report, Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment, is available for download.

Download PDF.

According to a new technical report, the effects of climate change will continue to threaten the health and vitality of U.S. coastal communities’ social, economic and natural systems. The report, Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment, authored by leading scientists and experts, emphasizes the need for increased coordination and planning to ensure U.S. coastal communities are resilient against the effects of climate change.

The recently-released report examines and describes climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems and human economies and communities, as well as the kinds of scientific data, planning tools and resources that coastal communities and resource managers need to help them adapt to these changes.

“Sandy showed us that coastal states and communities need effective strategies, tools and resources to conserve, protect, and restore coastal habitats and economies at risk from current environmental stresses and a changing climate,” said Margaret A. Davidson of NOAA’s Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management and co-lead author of the report. “Easing the existing pressures on coastal environments to improve their resiliency is an essential method of coping with the adverse effects of climate change.”

A key finding in the report is that all U.S. coasts are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise, erosion, storms and flooding, especially in the more populated low-lying parts of the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico, Mid-Atlantic, northern Alaska, Hawaii, and island territories. Another finding indicated the financial risks associated with both private and public hazard insurance are expected to increase dramatically.

“An increase in the intensity of extreme weather events such as storms like Sandy and Katrina, coupled with sea-level rise and the effects of increased human development along the coasts, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources,” said Virginia Burkett of the U.S. Geological Survey and co-lead author of the report.

Natural "green barriers."

Natural "green barriers" help protect this Florida coastline and infrastructure from severe storms and floods.

Download Image. (Credit: NOAA)

The authors also emphasized that storm surge flooding and sea-level rise pose significant threats to public and private infrastructure that provides energy, sewage treatment, clean water and transportation of people and goods. These factors increase threats to public health, safety, and employment in the coastal zone.

The report’s authors noted that the population of the coastal watershed counties of the U.S. and territories, including the Great Lakes, makes up more than 50 percent of the nation’s population and contributed more than $8.3 trillion to the 2011 U.S. economy but depend on healthy coastal landforms, water resources, estuaries and other natural resources to sustain them. Climate changes, combined with human development activities, reduce the ability of coasts to provide numerous benefits, including food, clean water, jobs, recreation and protection of communities against storms.

Seventy-nine federal, academic and other scientists, including the lead authors from the NOAA and USGS, authored the report which is being used as a technical input to the third National Climate Assessment — an interagency report produced for Congress once every four years to summarize the science and impacts of climate change on the United States.

Vulnerable coastal properties.

Vulnerable coastal properties in New England battered by Sandy.
(Credit: RI CRMC )

Other key findings of the report include:

Expected public health impacts include a decline in seafood quality, shifts in disease patterns and increases in rates of heat-related morbidity.Changes in the location and the time of year when storms form can lead to large changes in where storms land and the impacts of storms. Any sea-level rise is virtually certain to exacerbate storm-surge and flooding related hazards.Because of changes in the hydrological cycle due to warming, precipitation events (rain, snow) will likely be heavier. Combined with sea-level rise and storm surge, this will increase flooding severity in some coastal areas, particularly in the Northeast.Temperature is primarily driving environmental change in the Alaskan coastal zone. Sea ice and permafrost make northern regions particularly susceptible to temperature change. For example, an increase of two degrees Celsius during the summer could basically transform much of Alaska from frozen to unfrozen, with extensive implications.As the physical environment changes, the range of a particular ecosystem will expand, contract or migrate in response. The combined influence of many stresses can cause unexpected ecological changes if species, populations or ecosystems are pushed beyond a tipping point.Although adaptation planning activities in the coastal zone are increasing, they generally occur in an ad-hoc manner and are slow to be implemented. Efficiency of adaptation can be improved through more accurate and timely scientific information, tools, and resources, and by integrating adaptation plans into overall land use planning as well as ocean and coastal management.An integrated scientific program will reduce uncertainty about the best ways coastal communities can to respond to sea-level rise and other kinds of coastal change. This, in turn, will allow communities to better assess their vulnerability and to identify and implement appropriate adaptation and preparedness options.

This report is available at: http://downloads.usgcrp.gov/NCA/technicalinputreports/Burkett_Davidson_Coasts_Final_.pdf.

USGS provides science for a changing world. Visit USGS.gov, and follow us on Twitter @USGS and our other social media channels.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Working with 10 nations to address illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and stem the bycatch of protected species

January 11, 2013

The crew of the Coast Guard Cutter Rush escorts the suspected high seas drift net fishing vessel Da Cheng in the North Pacific Ocean on August 14, 2012.

The crew of the Coast Guard Cutter Rush escorts the suspected high seas drift net fishing vessel Da Cheng in the North Pacific Ocean on August 14, 2012.

Download here. (Credit: U.S. Coast Guard)

As part of its overall efforts to ensure that the U.S. fishing industry isn’t undermined by unsustainable or illegal activities, NOAA today submitted a Congressionally mandated report identifying 10 nations whose fishing vessels engaged in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing in 2011 or 2012, or had ineffective measures to prevent the unintended catch of protected species in 2012.

IUU fishing undermines international efforts to sustainably manage and rebuild fisheries and creates unfair market competition for fishermen who adhere to strict conservation measures, like those in the United States. IUU fishing can devastate fish populations and their productive marine habitats, threatening food security and economic stability. Independent experts have estimated economic losses worldwide from IUU fishing to be between $10 billion and $23 billion annually.

“NOAA’s international fisheries work is critical to the economic viability of U.S. fishing communities and the protection of U.S. jobs,” said Russell Smith, NOAA deputy assistant secretary for international fisheries. “This is about leveling the playing field for fishermen around the world, and IUU fishing represents one of the biggest threats to the U.S. fishing industry. Seafood is a global business, and U.S. fishermen following the rules should not have to compete with those using illegal or unsustainable fishing practices.”

The IUU fishing vessel Taruman held 143 tons of illegally harvested Patagonian toothfish (Chilean sea bass).

The IUU fishing vessel Taruman held 143 tons of illegally harvested Patagonian toothfish (Chilean sea bass).

Download here. (Credit: Australian Customs Service)

The U.S. will soon start consultations with each of the 10 nations — Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Italy, Mexico, Panama, the Republic of Korea, Spain, Tanzania, and Venezuela — to encourage them to take action to address IUU fishing and bycatch by their fishermen.

All 10 nations identified in this year’s report had vessels that did not comply in 2011 and/or 2012 with conservation and management measures required under a regional fishery management organization to which the United States is a party. Mexico was also identified for ineffective management of the bycatch of North Pacific loggerhead sea turtles, which travel between Japan and Mexico through Hawaiian waters, and are endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

“As one of the largest importers of seafood in the world, the United States has a global responsibility and an economic duty to ensure the fish we import is caught sustainably and legally,” said Sam Rauch, deputy assistant administrator for NOAA’s Fisheries Service. “We look forward to working with these nations to encourage their compliance, and we will continue to work with our partners to detect and combat illegal practices.”

NOAA’s Office of Law Enforcement Special Agent James Cassin conducts a video inventory of the fishing vessel Antillas Reefer in Maputo, Mozambique in 2008. These video inventories are conducted post-seizure to eliminate liability claims and identify all potential evidence on a vessel.

NOAA’s Office of Law Enforcement Special Agent James Cassin conducts a video inventory of the fishing vessel Antillas Reefer in Maputo, Mozambique in 2008. These video inventories are conducted post-seizure to eliminate liability claims and identify all potential evidence on a vessel.

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

All six of the nations identified in the previous 2011 Biennial Report to Congress (Colombia, Ecuador, Italy, Panama, Portugal, and Venezuela) have addressed the instances by taking strong actions like sanctioning vessels, adopting or amending laws and regulations, or improving monitoring and enforcement. Each of these six nations now has a positive certification for their 2011 identified activities. However, a nation positively certified for action taken since the last report may be listed again as engaged in IUU fishing if new issues are identified, as is the case in this report.

If a nation fails to take appropriate action to address the instances of illegal fishing or bycatch activities described in the report, that nation’s fishing vessels may be denied entry into U.S. ports, and imports of certain fish or fish products from that nation into the United States may be prohibited. The United States is second only to China in the amount of seafood it imports. NOAA’s latest figures showed that 91 percent of the 4.7 billion pounds of seafood consumed in the United States in 2011 was imported.

Today’s report is a requirement of the High Seas Driftnet Fishing Moratorium Protection Act, as amended by the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act and the Shark Conservation Act. To read the report, go to http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/ia.

The report is prepared by NOAA Fisheries’ Office of International Affairs, which also works with the nations identified to resolve IUU issues. In addition, NOAA’s Office of Law Enforcement works with foreign law enforcement and fisheries officials to investigate illegal trafficking, illegal imports, and IUU fishing, and it routinely partners with U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the U.S. Coast Guard. NOAA Law Enforcement and the Coast Guard also work together to ensure that U.S.-flagged vessels are complying with the law.

The foreign fishing vessel Marshalls 201 runs from the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Walnut in September 2006 while still in U.S. waters. After the vessel was stopped and boarded, U.S. Coast Guard personnel determined the Marshalls 201 did not possess the proper permits to fish within U.S. waters and contained approximately 500 metric tons of tuna on board. The vessel and catch were seized and escorted to Guam for prosecution. The owner pled to one count and paid a penalty of $500,000.

The foreign fishing vessel Marshalls 201 runs from the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Walnut in September 2006 while still in U.S. waters. After the vessel was stopped and boarded, U.S. Coast Guard personnel determined the Marshalls 201 did not possess the proper permits to fish within U.S. waters and contained approximately 500 metric tons of tuna on board. The vessel and catch were seized and escorted to Guam for prosecution. The owner pled to one count and paid a penalty of $500,000.

Download here. (Credit: U.S. Coast Guard)

Today, NOAA also issued final regulations to implement the international provisions of the Shark Conservation Act. These regulations specify the procedures for identifying and certifying nations whose vessels catch sharks on the high seas. They also amend the definition of IUU fishing to help ensure a comprehensive approach to addressing unsustainable fisheries activities of greatest concern to the United States.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels at social media channels.


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Monday, November 18, 2013

2013 Space Achievement Award

April 9, 2013

NOAA received the prestigious 2013 Space Achievement Award today from the Space Foundation “for its use of space-based systems in making life-saving predictions and issuing early warnings of calamitous weather conditions.”

Sandy MacDonald, director of NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., accepted the award on behalf of NOAA at the Space Foundation’s 29th National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs.

“For all of the hard-working scientists, researchers and engineers at NOAA, receiving this award is a high honor coming from such a distinguished organization,” MacDonald said. “NOAA will continue to stay true to its mission of protecting lives and property, while helping to increase our understanding of the dynamic changes occurring within Earth's environment.”

Each year, the Space Foundation presents the Space Achievement Award to an individual or organization for significant contributions in advancing the exploration, development or use of space.

“While most people recognize the value of weather predictions, many don’t realize how NOAA uses space assets to determine the severity and risks of approaching weather events,” said Elliot Pulham, CEO of the Space Foundation in a press release to announce the award.

NOAA operates two types of spacecraft – the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) – that work in tandem to continuously monitor Earth’s air, land and water to track atmospheric conditions that trigger severe weather. NOAA is working with its partner NASA to build the next-generation of advanced geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, called GOES-R and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), respectively.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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Sunday, November 17, 2013

Effects of arctic oil and gas activities on marine mammals and Alaska native communities


NEWS RELEASE
March 21, 2013
Connie Barclay, 301-427-8003 w.

NOAA announced today that it is seeking comments on a supplemental draft environmental impact statement (EIS) for oil and gas activities in the Arctic Ocean. The draft, developed in collaboration with the Department of the Interior?s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), includes analysis on how a broader range of potential offshore oil and gas activities could affect the environment, with a specific focus on marine mammals and the Alaska Native communities that depend on the animals for food and cultural traditions.

The Obama Administration?s priority is ensuring that any development activities in the Arctic take place responsibly and will hold any future activities to the highest standards.

The environmental review addresses potential effects from both exploratory drilling and geological and geophysical (G&G) surveys, such as seismic surveys, in the Chuchki and Beaufort seas. After releasing the initial draft environmental impact statement for public comment in December 2011, NOAA and BOEM broadened the scope of analysis in light of comments from stakeholders. The initial EIS analyzed the effects of up to two exploratory drilling programs per year in both the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. The supplemental draft EIS analyzes the effects of up to four drilling programs per year in each area. The revised draft also expands discussion of mitigation measures designed to reduce the effects of offshore oil and gas activities on marine mammals and marine mammal subsistence users.

?We know how important marine mammals are to healthy Arctic ecosystems and the people who depend on them,? said Sam Rauch, deputy assistant NOAA administrator for NOAA?s Fisheries Service. ?NOAA scientists are working hard to learn as much as we can about how oil and gas activities impact marine mammals. We will continue to work with our partners to develop and put into place strong mitigation measures that will help lessen the impacts of these and other activities in our oceans.?

The supplemental draft EIS looks at measures NOAA could adopt when issuing incidental take authorizations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. The act provides for the incidental and unintentional take of small numbers of marine mammals by U.S. citizens, if these actions will have only a negligible effect on the species and will not reduce the availability of the marine mammals to the Alaska natives who rely on them. As part of its supplemental analysis, NOAA examined various measures to minimize potential harmful effects from sound, accidental discharge of pollutants including oil, and the presence of vessels that will be part of these oil and gas operations, such as closing areas to exploration during whale migration and feeding and during traditional whale and seal hunts.

The supplemental draft, which builds on the earlier draft EIS, is available for comment for 60 days, through Tuesday, May 28. NOAA will also host a series of public meetings during the week of April 8, 2013, to provide additional opportunities for comment. More information is available on the NOAA Fisheries website.

NOAA will incorporate public comments and any new information received during the public comment period, and expects to issue the final EIS in early 2014. NOAA will use the final EIS to help make decisions concerning incidental take authorizations that allow unintentional take of small numbers of marine mammals during oil and gas exploration activities in the U.S. Beaufort and Chukchi seas in 2014 and beyond. The EIS will also support BOEM, the agency with jurisdiction over offshore leasing and planning, in making its decisions, pursuant to the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act.

You may submit public comments via the Federal eRulemaking Portal starting Friday, March 29, or by visiting the project page on the Office of Protected Resources website. NOAA?s Fisheries Service will also accept written comments mailed to

Office of Protected Resources
NOAA Fisheries
1315 East West Highway, Rm. 13115
Silver Spring MD 20910

Comments can also be faxed to 301-713-0376, Attn: Candace Nachman.

NOAA Fisheries is the lead agency for the environmental impact statement. BOEM and the North Slope Borough are cooperating agencies. The Environmental Protection Agency is serving as a consulting agency, and NOAA Fisheries is coordinating with the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission as part of the co-management agreement under the Marine Mammal Protection Act.

NOAA's mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

To learn more about NOAA Fisheries in Alaska, visit alaskafisheries.noaa.gov or www.afsc.noaa.gov.


? News Releases | Fisheries Information Bulletins


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Saturday, November 16, 2013

Coast Survey plans for new Arctic nautical charts

February 26, 2013

NOAA's planned charts of the Arctic.

NOAA's planned charts of the Arctic.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey has issued an updated Arctic Nautical Charting Plan, as a major effort to improve inadequate chart coverage for Arctic areas experiencing increasing vessel traffic due to ice diminishment.

The update came after consultations with maritime interests and the public, as well as with other federal, state, and local agencies.

“As multi-year sea ice continues to disappear, vessel traffic in the Arctic is on the rise,” said Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, NOAA Coast Survey director. “This is leading to new maritime concerns about adequate charts, especially in areas increasingly transited by the offshore oil and gas industry and cruise liners.”

“Given the lack of emergency response infrastructure in remote Arctic waters, nautical charts are even more important to protect lives and fragile coastal areas,” Glang said.

Commercial vessels depend on NOAA to provide charts and publications with the latest depth information, aids to navigation, accurate shorelines, and other features required for safe navigation in U.S. waters. But many regions of Alaska’s coastal areas have never had full bottom bathymetric surveys, and some haven’t had more than superficial depth measurements since Captain Cook explored the northern regions in the late 1700s.

“Ships need updated charts with precise and accurate measurements,” said Capt. Doug Baird, chief of Coast Survey’s marine chart division. “We don’t have decades to get it done. Ice diminishment is here now.”

Two NOAA Corps Officers from NOAA Ship Fairweather in the Arctic in 2012.

Two NOAA Corps Officers from NOAA Ship Fairweather in the Arctic in 2012 .(Credit: NOAA)

NOAA plans to create 14 new charts to complement the existing chart coverage. For example, seven of the charts will complete chart coverage from the Alaska Peninsula to Cape Lisburne at the edge of the North Slope, and more charts support the future maritime transportation infrastructure in the coastal areas north of the Aleutian Islands. 

NOAA has been taking stakeholder feedback since the first Arctic Charting Plan was issued in 2011. One improvement called for additional detail to the Kotzebue Harbor and Approaches chart, which was published as the first plan-inspired new chart, in April 2012.

Mariners and the interested public can submit comments through the Coast Survey Inquiry and Discrepancy System online.

These latest efforts also support the objectives of the National Ocean Policy that foster understanding of changing conditions in the Arctic, and focus on ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes observations, mapping, and infrastructure by strengthening mapping capabilities into a national system and integrating that system into international observation efforts.

NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey is the nation’s nautical chartmaker. Originally formed by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807, Coast Survey updates charts, surveys the coastal seafloor, responds to maritime emergencies, and searches for underwater obstructions that pose a danger to navigation. Follow Coast Survey on Twitter @nauticalcharts, and check out the NOAA Coast Survey blog at http://noaacoastsurvey.wordpress.com for more in-depth coverage of surveying and charting.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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Friday, November 15, 2013

Louis W. Uccellini selected as next director of NOAA’s National Weather Service

February 7, 2013

Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., will become the next assistant NOAA administrator for weather services beginning February 10 and the 16th director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, which marks its 143rd anniversary this Saturday.

“Louis’ leadership within the National Weather Service and his relationship with the U.S. and international weather enterprise allow him to effectively steer the agency forward,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA Administrator.

“It’s an honor to lead such a prestigious agency with the unbeatable mission of protecting lives and livelihoods,” said Uccellini. “The past year had its success stories with superior outlooks, forecasts and warnings, including those for Sandy, but difficulties remain. Our eyes remain locked on the future to ensure a National Weather Service that is second to none and supports a weather-ready nation.

What makes the National Weather Service a prestigious agency with a bold future are the dedicated men and woman who work day in and day out to keep us all informed and safe. They do so in ways that are more public, such as issuing life-saving watches and warnings, and in ways that are less apparent but are vital to our society, such as supporting airline safety and marine transportation to protecting electrical infrastructure from solar storms.”

“I congratulate Dr. Uccellini and look forward to continuing to collaborate with him and the National Weather Service,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “FEMA and the NWS in partnership together prepare communities and local officials for the impacts of weather hazards to save lives and protect property.”

 “Working with a spectrum of partners, including emergency management, the commercial sector, broadcasters, academia and social scientists, we can and will meet the nation’s needs to overcome the very real threats from the increasing severity and frequency of weather and climate extremes,” added Uccellini.

Laura K. Furgione, who served as acting director of the National Weather Service since May 2012, will return as the agency’s deputy director. “Louis has always placed a priority on providing forecast tools to help field offices and national centers be successful. I’m proud to work by his side as we continue supporting our nation-wide team,” said Furgione.

Since 1999, Uccellini has led the NWS’ National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which in 2012 moved to a new state-of-the-art facility in College Park, Md. At NCEP, he was responsible for directing the planning, science and technology, and operational responsibilities related to NCEP’s Central Operations and Environmental Modeling, as well as seven national centers, including the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., and Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. Uccellini is also a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and just completed his term as the society’s president.

Uccellini, 63, began his weather career at the Goddard Space Flight Center's Laboratory for Atmospheres as the section head for the Mesoscale Analysis and Modeling Section in 1978. In 1989, he joined the NWS as chief of the Meteorological Operations Division and then became director of the Office of Meteorology in 1994.

Uccellini received his Bachelor of Science (1971), Master (1972), and Ph.D. (1977) degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He has published more than 60 journal articles and chapters in books, and is known for coauthoring the widely acclaimed two-volume book, Northeast Snowstorms.

A native of Bethpage, N.Y. on Long Island, Dr. Uccellini is a resident of Columbia, Md. He and his wife, Susan, have three children.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels at social media channels.



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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Ocean and coastal observing technology efforts awarded $27.2 million

September 30, 2013

IOOS is a federal, regional, and private-sector partnership working to enhance our ability to collect, deliver, and use ocean information.

IOOS is a federal, regional, and private-sector partnership working to enhance our ability to collect, deliver, and use ocean information.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA is awarding $27.2 million to sustain current critical ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes observing efforts and to support innovative marine sensor technologies, with a goal of helping us better understand our coastal and marine environment. The funding is provided through the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®), other federal agencies, and NOAA programs.

“IOOS brings federal and regional ocean observations together to give decision-makers the critical data they need to save lives and build their communities,” said Zdenka Willis, U.S. IOOS program director. “These awards will sustain those observations, and speed the transition of new promising technologies into the ocean, where they can serve our coastal communities day in and day out.”

Highlights of the awards

This year’s awards include $2.9 million for marine sensor innovation projects to enhance our understanding of the coastal and marine environment.  

$1 million to the Southeastern Universities Research Association to make operational the U.S. IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed, an infrastructure for the testing and improvement of non-federal and federal models and prediction tools;

$1 million to the Alliance for Coastal Technologies for technology transfer and accelerating development of promising new marine observing technologies;

$340,000 provided through the Northeast IOOS Regional Association in support of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and McLane Industries efforts to transition cutting-edge observing platforms monitoring the emergence of harmful algal blooms and improve harmful algal bloom forecasts in the Gulf of Maine;

$574,000 to fund projects in five IOOS Western regional associations. These projects will develop ocean acidification sensor technology to support West Coast and Alaska shellfish industry monitoring needs, improve measurements of the state of ocean acidification in the Pacific Islands, and develop workforce capacity to work with ocean acidification sensors.

In addition to the marine sensor innovation projects introduced this year, the U.S. IOOS awarded $24.3 million to sustain critical coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes efforts.  As part of this effort, the U.S. IOOS Program and NASA will continue to jointly fund, at $250,000 each per year, projects to improve satellite sea surface temperature data from existing and new sensors, produce a blended output of sea surface temperature data from U.S. and international datasets, and target these products for coastal applications and regional IOOS usage. The total breakdown of the $27.2 million is:

Alaska Ocean Observing System ($2.2 million)

Alliance for Coastal Technologies ($1 million)

Caribbean Regional Association ($1.6 million)

Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System ($2.3 million)

Gulf of Mexico Coastal Observing System ($1.5 million)

Great Lakes Observing System ($1.6 million)

Mid-Atlantic Regional Association for Coastal Ocean Observing Systems ($3 million)

Multi-sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature ($500,000)

Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems ($3.1 million)

Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems ($2.4 million)

Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System ($2.2 million)

Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System ($2.3 million)

Southeastern Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association ($2.5 million)

Southeastern Universities Research Association ($1 million)

Funding supports NOAA's efforts to develop a national IOOS for tracking, predicting, managing and adapting to changes in the marine environment. IOOS delivers data and information needed to increase understanding of the Nation’s waters to improve safety, enhance the economy, and protect our environment.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.

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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Proposes plan to address environmental injuries from 2005 Gulf oil spill

March 18, 2013

Disabled T/B DBL 152 vessel discharges oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Disabled T/B DBL 152 vessel discharges oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Download here (Credit: ENTRIX, Inc.)

NOAA today released a draft damage assessment and restoration plan addressing environmental injuries from the 2005 Tank Barge DBL 152 oil spill in federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

The draft plan describes the steps NOAA has taken to see if natural resources, such as marine habitats, were injured by the nearly two million gallon spill, as well as the extent of those injuries. The spill began on November 11, 2005 when the Tank Barge DBL 152 struck submerged remains of a pipeline service platform that collapsed during Hurricane Rita approximately 50 miles southeast of Sabine Pass, Texas.

“Sometimes effects of oil spills are immediate and clearly visible, but often the effects are less obvious and require expertise and time to properly evaluate,” said Troy Baker, NOAA’s Assessment and Restoration Division acting southeast branch chief who has been leading this project, “Developing this draft plan and the comment period for it is the next step in an ongoing process.”

The draft plan also describes environmental restoration proposed by NOAA to compensate the public for environmental injuries resulting from the oil spill. To help address this, NOAA has proposed estuarine shoreline protection and a salt marsh creation project at the Texas Chenier Plain National Wildlife Refuge Complex in Galveston Bay. Once the plan is finalized, NOAA would apply to the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund -- which is funded through costs and penalties recovered from polluters as well as taxes on the petroleum industry -- to fund the restoration.

Public comments on the draft plan may be submitted by mail or electronically through April 15. Written comments may be sent to: NOAA, Office of General Counsel, Natural Resources Section, Attn: Chris Plaisted, 501 W. Ocean Blvd., Suite 4470, Long Beach, CA 90802; or electronically at http://www.regulations.gov (Docket I.D.: NOAA-NMFS-2013-0034). The Restoration Plan is available at: http://www.darrp.noaa.gov/southeast/dbl152/admin.html

Following the public comment period, NOAA will consider any comments received and release a final restoration plan. This comment period is the last step before restoration projects are selected and funding is sought from the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund.

As a designated natural resource trustee agency under the Oil Pollution Act, NOAA is authorized to act on behalf of the public under federal law to assess natural resource damages and recover the costs for those damages. Costs recovered are then used to plan and implement actions to restore, replace or acquire the equivalent of the natural resources injured by the contamination.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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Tuesday, November 12, 2013

The end of traditional paper nautical charts

October 22, 2013

Most mariners now use Print-on-Demand nautical charts that are up-to-date to the moment of printing.

Most mariners now use Print-on-Demand nautical charts that are up-to-date to the moment of printing.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey, which creates and maintains the nation’s suite of over a thousand nautical charts of U.S. coastal waters, today announced major changes ahead for mariners and others who use nautical charts. Starting April 13, the federal government will no longer print traditional lithographic (paper) nautical charts, but will continue to provide other forms of nautical charts, including print on demand charts and versions for electronic charting systems.

“Like most other mariners, I grew up on NOAA lithographic charts and have used them for years,” said Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “We know that changing chart formats and availability will be a difficult change for some mariners who love their traditional paper charts, but we’re still going to provide other forms of our official charts.”

Since 1862, those lithographic nautical charts -- available in marine shops and other stores -- have been printed by the U.S. government and sold to the public by commercial vendors. The decision to stop production is based on several factors, including the declining demand for lithographic charts, the increasing use of digital and electronic charts, and federal budget realities.

“With the end of traditional paper charts, our primary concern continues to be making sure that boaters, fishing vessels, and commercial mariners have access to the most accurate, up-to-date nautical chart in a format that works well for them,” said Capt. Shep Smith, chief of Coast Survey’s Marine Chart Division. “Fortunately, advancements in computing and mobile technologies give us many more options than was possible years ago.”

NOAA will continue to create and maintain other forms of nautical charts, including the increasingly popular Print on Demand (POD) charts, updated paper charts available from NOAA-certified printers. NOAA electronic navigational charts (NOAA ENC®) and raster navigational charts (NOAA RNC®), used in a variety of electronic charting systems, are also updated weekly and are available for free download from the Coast Survey website. NOAA will also announce a new product full-scale PDF (Portable Digital Format) nautical charts, available for free download on a trial basis online.

Electronic charts, layered with multi-faceted information, are increasingly popular with commercial pilots around the world.

Electronic charts, layered with multi-faceted information, are increasingly popular with commercial pilots around the world.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The world of navigation is benefiting from advances in technology, Smith explained. He said that NOAA will consult with chart users and private businesses about the future of U.S. navigation, especially exploring the use of NOAA charts as the basis for new products.

“Customers frequently ask us for special printed features, such as waterproof charts, special papers, or chart books containing additional information,” he said. “We are investigating new opportunities for companies to fill these market niches, using the most up-to-date information directly from NOAA.”

NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey is the nation’s nautical chartmaker. Originally formed by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807, Coast Survey updates charts, surveys the coastal seafloor, responds to maritime emergencies, and searches for underwater obstructions that pose a danger to navigation. Follow Coast Survey on Twitter @nauticalcharts, and check out the NOAA Coast Survey blog at noaacoastsurvey.wordpress.com for more in depth coverage of surveying and charting.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.


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Monday, November 11, 2013

Report finds commercial and recreational saltwater fishing generated $199 billion in 2011

U.S. commercial and recreational saltwater fishing generated more than $199 billion in sales and supported 1.7 million jobs in the nation’s economy in 2011, according to a new economic report released by NOAA’s Fisheries Service.

The report, Fisheries Economics of the United States 2011, is published annually on a two-year lag to allow data collection, analysis, and peer review. It provides economic statistics on U.S. commercial and recreational fisheries and marine-related businesses for each coastal state and the nation. Key to the report are the economic effects--jobs, sales, income, and value added to Gross National Product--of the commercial and recreational fishing industries. “Economic impact” measures how sales in each sector ripple throughout the state and national economy as each dollar spent generates additional sales by other firms and consumers.

The seafood industry—harvesters, seafood processors and dealers, seafood wholesalers and retailers—generated $129 billion in sales impacts, $37 billion in income impacts and supported 1.2 million jobs in 2011, the most recent year included in the report. Recreational fishing generated $70 billion in sales impacts, $20 billion in income impacts, and supported 455,000 jobs in 2011. Compared to 2010, the numbers are up for all of these impacts except commercial seafood sales.

“Commercial and recreational fishing are integral parts of the nation’s social and economic fabric,” said Sam Rauch, deputy assistant NOAA administrator for NOAA’s Fisheries Service. “While there’s still work to do, to see landings and value climb in 2011 shows we’re moving in the right direction, even in this time of challenging transition for many fishing communities.”

The annual report also breaks down the sales impacts, income impacts and job figures for each coastal state. The five states that generated the most jobs from fishing in 2011 were California, Massachusetts, Florida, Washington, and Alaska. The states with the most growth in the number of commercial fishing jobs compared to 2010 were Alabama (76 percent, net increase of 4,743 jobs), Mississippi (45 percent, net increase of 1,722 jobs), Oregon (32 percent, net increase of 4,483 jobs), Louisiana (29 percent, net increase of 7,272 jobs), and Alaska (17 percent, net increase of 9,288 jobs).

The greatest portion of the nation’s landings revenue generated by the commercial fishing industry was in Alaska ($1.9 billion), followed by Massachusetts ($433 million), and Maine ($381 million).

Saltwater recreational fishing generated its highest economic effect in sales impacts and jobs in West Florida ($4.9 billion sales, 47,000 jobs) East Florida ($3.3 billion sales, 29,000 jobs); Louisiana ($2 billion sales, 18,000 jobs); North Carolina ($2 billion sales, 18,000 jobs); Texas ($1.9 billion sales, 15,000 jobs); and New Jersey (1.7 billion sales, 10,000 jobs).

Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2011 includes descriptive statistics on commercial fish landings, revenue, and price trends; recreational fishing effort, catch, and participation rates; and employer and non-employer establishments, annual payroll, and annual receipt information for fishing-related industries such as seafood retailers and ship and boat building. The report also provides a snapshot of fishery management plans, limited access privilege fishing programs (a type of catch share program), buyback programs, as well as the status of fish stocks and an inventory of protected marine resources.

The report is the sixth volume in an annual series designed to give the public accessible economic information on fishing activities in the U.S., and is a companion to Fisheries of the United States.

Fisheries Economics of the United States 2011 is available online at: http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/economics/publications/feus/fisheries_economics_2011. Hard copies of the report are forthcoming.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at www.noaa.gov and join us on Facebook, Twitter, and our other social media channels.

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Sunday, November 10, 2013

Research finds new way to identify which El Niño events will have biggest impact on U.S. winter weather

February 7, 2013

El Niño.

El Niño, warmer than average waters in the Eastern equatorial Pacific (shown in orange on the map), affects weather around the world. A new study, just published in the February 2013 issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts.

Download here (Credit: NOAA Visualization Lab)

Weather forecasters have long known that El Niño events can throw seasonal climate patterns off kilter, particularly during winter months. Now, new research from NOAA and the University of Washington suggests that a different way to detect El Niño could help forecasters predict the unusual weather it causes.

A network of buoys that spans the Pacific, the TAO-Triton array, observes conditions in the upper ocean and is essential for forecasting El Niño months in advance, and for monitoring it as it grows and decays. A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper.

“When it comes to El Niño’s weather impacts, we are always looking for ways to improve our forecasting skill,” said Harrison. “Our goal is to extract the most useful information to predict El Niño seasonal weather anomalies.”

Harrison and Chiodi looked at all El Niño events that were identified by sea surface temperature measurements since 1979. They then examined satellite imagery for these events and found that a subset of the events showed a sharp dip in heat radiating from the tops of deep convective clouds, an indicator known as outgoing long-wave radiation or OLR. When comparing the El Niño events to historical weather records, the scientists found that the El Niño events with drops in OLR were the ones most likely to play havoc with winter weather.

They also found that El Niño events with no corresponding drop in OLR did not produce statistically significant anomalies in weather patterns. The dip in heat from deep convective clouds usually occurred before winter, so the timing of the signal could help forecasters improve winter seasonal outlooks, the scientists said.

“By sorting El Niño events into two categories, one with OLR changes and one without, forecasters may be able to produce winter seasonal outlooks with more confidence than previously thought possible,” Harrison said.

El Niño refers to a warming of waters along the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Through its influence on the atmosphere, El Niño shifts tropical rainfall patterns which causes further shifts in weather around the globe, including milder winters in western Canada and parts of the northern United States and wetter winters in the some southern states.

Industry sectors from energy and construction to transportation and tourism are keenly interested in how El Niño will affect their costs. El Niño-influenced weather can affect fuel oil demand, travel delays, and retail sales. Better accuracy in El Niño predictions could help industry to prepare for its impacts more efficiently.

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