Oh my!...The Power Ball (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for spring 2012 came up as 118...the warmest on record since 1895 for the lower 48 states. Just think about what the chances of that highest ranking are without the warming trend occurring across the planet...one in 118. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 118 being the warmest possible temperature average. In the Climate Lottery game, I've defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. As we keep seeing over and over again the Climate Lottery game is rigged towards those higher number rankings due to man induced global warming.
The National Climatic Data Center has finished processing the rankings for spring 2012 for the lower 48 states. So, for everyone who participated in my third lottery contest, the numbers were: 118/116/117 for MAR/APR/MAY 2012with an overall Power Ball ranking for the season of 118. Just like summer and fall 2011 and winter 2012 not even one month was below average.
The winner was Mark Couvillion, who came closest to picking the correct numbers. His picks were 115/112/110 with a "power ball" ranking of 114 for MAR/APR/MAY 2012. Good going Mark. Incidentally, Mark's guesses were the highest (warmest rankings) for the few people who made lottery picks.
Well, let's play the lottery again. I wonder if we will ever see in the future a "gotcha" set of three months when temperatures are below average for an entire season across the lower 48 states? Just like last time pick three numbers between 1 and 118 (with one representing the coldest possible ranking and 118 being the highest possible ranking) for JUN/JUL/AUG 2012. Also pick a "Power Ball" or overall ranking number for summer 2012 between 1 and 118. Please give your picks in the reply section to this blog by July 1st. I'll announce another winner shortly after the National Climatic Data Center processes averages on my next post around September the 10th. My forecast for this summer is for averages across the U.S. to continue to be warm but not as horrifically hot as they were the last couple of years. Also we are "due" to see at least one below average month during the summer. I won't be shocked, at all though again, if just like last summer, fall, winter, and this spring not one single month of summer is below average. The last few posts I have been way under forecasting the observed warmth across the U.S. each season...I guess I'm just an eternal optimist. There are indications that June will be warmer than average but not at the high end of the rankings.
For reference the following are links to my first four posts:
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26102.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25602.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_23192.html?from=blog_permalink_month
Once again, the spring season, as a whole, was above long term averages with no individual month below average; and thus, having above average rankings. I'll reiterate once more (I know that this is getting repetitive) that due to climate change it is unlikely for a land area the size of the contiguous United States to have below average temperatures for an entire season. I'm not going to state that there will NEVER AGAIN be another below average season for the United States, but due to man induced global warming, the chances for an entire season of below average conditions is becoming much less likely. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change...and they were very skewed towards warmth this spring. As stated in my fourth post, only an increase in volcanic activity from what is presently occurring at the moment can significantly slow the overall warming trend of the planet. What happened over the winter and spring is yet more proof of the climate dice being loaded for warmth in the United States. On this blog I'll be a bit briefer than the last few posts. Essentially the meteorological reason for the warmth was a strong upper ridge persisting through much of the spring across the U.S. leading to anomalously warm conditions except along the immediate West Coast.
Here's a breakdown of the National Climatic Center's ranking numbers for each month of the spring:
In March the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 118 (out of 118):
The only comment I'll write about this month is wow! I have never in nearly 30 years of forecasting seen such an anomalously warm month. Twenty-five states had their all-time warmest March. Many of you will recall how warm the month was with flora and fauna responding to the warmth by blooming too soon. Only the state of Washington was below average.
In April the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 116 (out of 118):
Relative to March April was cooler, particularly in the Midwest; nevertheless, April 2012 was the third warmest April on record since 1895.
In May the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 117 (out of 118) making that month the second warmest May in recorded history.
The overall ranking for spring 2012 was 118....the warmest spring in recorded history.
Thirty one of the U.S. states had their warmest spring in recorded history, which was simply amazing.
Again, I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html
I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on the last three posts. The average ranking for 2012 is
59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings below 49 blue and all those above 69 red with rankings + or -- 10 from the median value of 59 black.
The following are the rankings so far for the 2010's:
Also, for reference, the following are "Power-Ball" and "Mega-Ball" ranking numbers for 2000 to the present:
Please see my prior posts for more charts dating back to 1900 for reference. Seasonal or Power-Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are those for MAR/APR/MAY, summer is JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCDC rankings for seasons compare seasons and are not merely an average of rankings of individual months of a season or year.
Notice that since the start of 2000 only four out of sixty two seasons have been below average or "blue". Fifty three out of the sixty two seasons since 2000 have been "red" or above average. Indeed as stated in the last post, the climate dice are very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history
Well, that's it for this post. I just hope that summer 2012 is not as torrid as that of 2011, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma.
Click here to leave a comment and play the climate lottery.
Guy Walton
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel
