Tropical storms and hurricanes in 2011 will be harbingers of good and bad things when and if they make landfall in the United States. There are severe droughts throughout the southern portion of the contiguous 48 states. Yet none of the named storms has made a dent in rainfall totals as of Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center predicted warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the Atlantic will have a higher-than-normal total of named storms and big hurricanes. Tropical Storm Don made landfall along the Texas-Mexico border but only brought an inch of rain or less to the area. The next system, Tropical Storm Emily, doused the Haiti and the Dominican Republic but then steered eastward of Florida and headed back out to sea.
By now, at least one hurricane usually forms by this time of year. Instead we've gotten just five tropical storms. The next two weeks will let forecasters know if their predictions will be true. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in late August. Another monster storm, Hurricane Hugo , came ashore in mid-September of 1989.
Experts predicted at least three major hurricanes, up to 18 named storms and as many as seven to 10 hurricanes. The Los Angeles Times reports the initial prediction of six to 10 hurricanes was recently raised by one. Apparently the weather pattern is ripe for storm formation, but the strong ridge of high pressure over the central United States may help spin hurricanes away from land.
Upper level air is the key to steering massive storms. They can help keep storms together or make them fall apart. If there is a huge dome of high and dry air dominating the atmosphere, a smaller low pressure system from the tropics may not be able to penetrate the large mass of air.
It's like a golf ball trying to move a bowling ball. It's not going to happen until the current system of heat moves away from the central United States in order to let moisture inland. The key to the shift will be the jet stream. Finally, some cooler air from Canada will make its way south by Aug. 10. The Weather Channel states the dome of hot air will retreat back to the southwest temporarily due to the shift and possibly bring some rain to parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.
Unfortunately, Texas and Oklahoma will continue to bake. Tropical systems will be spun away from where moisture is needed most. Nothing will happen until the hot pattern completely dissipates, which may not occur until September. After that, get ready for some nasty hurricanes that might invade the southern United States.
