Climatologists offer reason behind widening of Earth's tropical belt

A awesome-water anomaly referred to as La Ni?a occupied tropical Gulf Of Mexico throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, researchers at NASA’s Jet Space Laboratory introduced that although the La Ni?a was weakening, the Off-shore Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -- a bigger-scale, reduced-cycling sea pattern—had moved to the awesome phase. This picture shows the ocean surface temperature anomaly within the Gulf Of Mexico from April 14–21, 2008. Places in which the Off-shore was cooler than usual are blue, places where temps were average are whitened, and places in which the sea was warmer than usual are red-colored. The broad section of cooler-than-average water from the coast of The United States from Alaska (top center) towards the equator is really a classic feature from the awesome phase from the PDO. The awesome waters wrap inside a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (Within the warm phase, the pattern is corrected). Unlike El Ni?o and La Ni?a, which might occur every 3 to many years and last from 6 to 18 several weeks, the PDO usually stays within the same phase for twenty to thirty years. The change within the PDO might have significant implications for global climate.Credit: NASA image by Jesse Allen, AMSR-E data processed and supplied by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Realizing Systems Recent reports have proven that Earth's tropical belt -- demarcated, roughly, through the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn -- has progressively broadened since a minimum of the late seventies. Several explanations with this widening happen to be suggested, for example radiative forcing because of green house gas increase and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Now, a group of climatologists, brought by scientists in the College of California, Riverside, posits the recent widening from the tropical belt is mainly triggered by multi-decadal ocean surface temperature variability within the Gulf Of Mexico. This variability includes the Off-shore Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a lengthy-resided El Ni?o-like pattern of Off-shore climate variability that actually works just like a switch every 3 decades approximately between two different circulation designs within the North Gulf Of Mexico. Additionally, it includes, the scientists say, anthropogenic contaminants, which act to change the PDO.

Study results appear March 16 in Character Geoscience.

"Prior analyses have discovered that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, resulting in questions about possible model inadequacies, possible errors within the findings, and insufficient confidence later on forecasts," stated Robert J. Allen, a helper professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who brought the research. "In addition, there's been no obvious reason behind what's driving the widening."

Now Allen's team finds the recent tropical widening is basically driven through the PDO.

"Even though this widening is recognized as a 'natural' mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is mainly driven by internal dynamics from the climate system, we reveal that anthropogenic contaminants have driven trends within the PDO," Allen stated. "Thus, tropical widening relates to both PDO and anthropogenic contaminants."

Widening concerns

Tropical widening is connected with several significant alterations in our climate, including changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, like storm tracks, and major climate zones. For instance, in Los Angeles, tropical widening might be connected with less precipitation.

Of particular concern would be the semi-arid regions poleward from the subtropical dry devices, such as the Mediterranean, the north western U . s . States and northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa, and areas of South Usa. A poleward growth of the tropics will probably bring even drier conditions to those heavily populated regions, but might bring elevated moisture with other areas.

Widening from the tropics would also most likely be connected with poleward movement of major extratropical climate zones because of changes able of jet streams, storm tracks, mean position of everywhere pressure systems, and connected precipitation routines. A rise in the width from the tropics could boost the area impacted by tropical storms (severe weather), or could change climatological tropical cyclone development regions and tracks.

Belt contraction

Allen's research team also demonstrated that just before the current (since ~1980 let's start) tropical widening, tropical belt really contracted for many decades, in conjuction with the turnaround of the PDO throughout this earlier period of time.

"The turnaround of the PDO, consequently, might be associated with the worldwide rise in anthropogenic pollutant pollutants just before the ~ early eighties," Allen stated.

Analysis

Allen's team examined IPCC AR5 (fifth Assessment Report) climate models, several observational and reanalysis data sets, and carried out their very own climate model experiments to evaluate tropical widening, and also to isolate the primary cause.

"Whenever we examined IPCC climate model experiments driven using the time-evolution of observed ocean surface temps, we found much bigger rates of tropical widening, in better agreement towards the observed rate--especially in the Northern Hemisphere," Allen stated. "This immediately pointed to the significance of ocean surface temps, as well as recommended that models can handle recreating the observed rate of tropical widening, that's, they weren't 'deficient' in some manner.Inch

Urged by their findings, the scientists then requested the issue, "What part of the SSTs is driving the development?Inch They found the solution within the leading pattern of ocean surface temperature variability within the North Off-shore: the PDO.

They supported their argument by re-examining the models with PDO-variability statistically removed.

"Within this situation, we found tropical widening -- especially in the Northern Hemisphere -- is totally removed," Allen stated. "This is correct for kinds of models--individuals driven with observed ocean surface temps, and also the combined climate appliances simulate evolution of both atmosphere and sea and therefore are thus unlikely to yield the actual-world evolution from the PDO.

"When we stratify the speed of tropical widening within the combined models by their particular PDO evolution," Allen added, "we discover a statistically significant relationship: combined appliances simulate a bigger PDO trend have bigger tropical widening, and the other way around. Thus, even combined models can simulate the observed rate of tropical widening, but only when they simulate the actual-world evolution from the PDO."

Future work

Next, the scientists is going to be searching at just how anthropogenic contaminants, by modifying the PDO and massive weather systems, have affected precipitation within the Southwest U . s . States, including Los Angeles.

"Future pollutants paths show decreased pollutant pollutants with the twenty-first century, implying contaminants will continue to drive an optimistic PDO and tropical widening," Allen stated.

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With couple of hard frosts, tropical mangroves push north

Cold-sensitive mangrove forests have broadened significantly along Florida's Chesapeake Bay because the frequency of killing frosts has rejected, according to a different study according to 28 many years of satellite data in the College of Maryland and also the Smithsonian Environment Research Center in Edgewater, Md.

Between 1984 and 2011, the Florida Chesapeake bay in the Miami area northward acquired greater than 3,000 acres (1,240 hectares) of mangroves. All of the increase happened north of Palm Beach County. Between Cape Canaveral National Seashore and Saint Augustine, mangroves bending in area. Meanwhile between your study's first 5 years and it is last 5 years, nearby Daytona Beach recorded 1.4 less days each year when temps fell below 28.4 levels Fahrenheit (-4 levels Celsius). The amount of killing frosts in southern Florida was unchanged.

The mangroves' march in the coast as far north as St. Augustine, Fla., is really a striking illustration of one of the ways climate change's impacts appear in character. Rising temps result in new designs of utmost weather, which cause major alterations in plant towns, the study's authors.

Unlike numerous studies which concentrate on alterations in average temps, this research, released online 12 ,. 30 within the peer-examined journal Proceedings from the Nas, implies that alterations in the regularity of rare, severe occasions can see whether landscapes hold their ground or are changed by global warming.

The mangrove forests are edging out salt wetlands, stated College of Maryland Entomology Professor Daniel S. Gruner, research co-author. "This is exactly what we'd anticipate seeing happening with global warming, one ecosystem changing another," stated Gruner, who co-leads an interdisciplinary research study on mangrove environments, together with Ilka C. Feller from the Smithsonian. "But at this time we do not have enough information to calculate exactly what the long-term effects is going to be.Inch

One valuable ecosystem replaces another -- at what cost?

"Many people may say this can be a positive thing, due to the tremendous risks that mangroves face," stated the study's lead author, Kyle Cavanaugh, a Smithsonian postdoctoral research fellow. "But this isn't happening inside a vacuum. The mangroves are changing salt wetlands, that have important ecosystem functions and food webs that belongs to them.Inch

Mangrove forests grow in calm, shallow seaside waters through the tropics. Salt wetlands fill that niche in temperate zones. Both provide crucial habitat for wildlife, including endangered species and in a commercial sense valuable seafood and seafood. Some creatures use both kinds of habitat. Others, like marsh-nesting seaside sparrows or even the honey bees that leave mangrove honey, depend on either.

Both provide valuable ecosystem services, loading surges, storing atmospheric carbon and building soils. Both of them are in decline across the country and globally. Mangrove forests are cut lower for charcoal production, aquaculture and urbanization or lose habitat to drainage projects. Salt wetlands are threatened by drainage, polluted runoff and rising ocean levels.

Florida naturalists observed that mangroves now grow in locations that were in the past too chilly for that tropical trees. "We understood it was happening, but nobody understood whether it would be a local or perhaps a regional phenomenon," Cavanaugh stated.

Study used satellite photos, the "defacto standardInch in global warming

Cavanaugh, a specialist in remote realizing, switched to photographs of Florida's Chesapeake bay taken by NASA's Landsat 5, which released back in 1984 and monitored alterations in Earth's land cover until 2011. "It very rapidly grew to become a defacto standard to look at the results of global warming, since it allows you appear in time," Cavanaugh stated.

The satellite images revealed the mangroves' expansion into terrain formerly lived on by salt marsh plants. As the study only checked out the Chesapeake Bay, exactly the same trend is happening on Florida's Gulf Coast, Cavanaugh and Gruner stated.

Mean winter temps have risen at seven of eight seaside weather stations within the study area. But when overall warming achieved positive results mangroves, the mangrove cover must have elevated throughout Florida, not just in its northern border. Average winter temperature, rain fall, and concrete or farming land use didn't explain the mangroves' expansion. Only less freezing days in the northern finish of the range matched up the popularity.

The scientists are studying effects on seaside bugs and wild birds if the change will affect seaside ecosystems' capability to store carbon and whether juvenile seafood and in a commercial sense valuable seafood will stay rich in the altering plant towns.

Cavanaugh is searching at Landsat 5 imagery for Mexico, Peru, South america, New zealand and australia to ascertain if mangroves are growing elsewhere because they are in Florida.

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Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names

April 11, 2013

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012 shows the storm as it is centered off of Maryland and Virginia. 

Download here. (Credit: NOAA.)

Sandy has been retired from the official list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names by the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee because of the extreme impacts it caused from Jamaica and Cuba to the Mid-Atlantic United States in October 2012.
Storm names are reused every six years for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. If a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of the name would be insensitive or confusing, the WMO hurricane committee, which includes personnel from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, may retire the name. Sandy is the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic list since 1954. The name will be replaced with “Sara” beginning in 2018.
Sandy was a classic late-season hurricane in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The cyclone made landfall as a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) in Jamaica, and as a 115 mph category 3 hurricane in eastern Cuba.  Hurricane Sandy merged with a frontal system hours before making landfall as a post-tropical cyclone near Brigantine, N.J., and its size and strength caused catastrophic damage all along the mid-Atlantic shoreline.

Because of its tremendous size, Sandy drove a catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines. Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone since Katrina to hit the United States. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Sandy caused the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, NOAA’s National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Did a tropical storm hit Florida Sunday night?

IMHO, yes!

This blog will provide an explanation of my reasoning. For additional perspective, TWC's Dr. Rick Knabb and Bryan Norcross discuss the event in an on-camera segment here.

There's an infinite variety of weather systems in the tropical-subtropical-extratropical continuum, the one which hit Florida over the weekend being another fascinating example.

A couple of particularly bizarre & wild ones have occurred in recent years: what I dubbed the "MCV-icane" in southern Illinois in May 2009, and the regeneration of what had been Tropical Storm Erin in 2007.

The system this weekend paradoxically had characteristics of both a large non-tropical nor'easter and, embedded within it, a small tropical cyclone. In that sense, although there were significant differences in strength, location, and origin, Sunday evening's odd bird was at least of a similar species to the small unnamed hurricane that developed within the larger Perfect Storm in 1991.

So in the big picture the current system has been a hybrid, but what about the potent component that hit Florida Sunday night, the feature that I'm suggesting was a tropical storm even though officially it wasn't? What's up with that?

It's perfectly okay for meteorologists to have honest, legitimate, amicable professional differences of opinion on the analysis of meteorological aspects of a weather system. The tricky part with tropical and subtropical cyclones in this part of the world is that only the National Hurricane Center can officially classify them as such and name them.

For example, I could identify a thunderstorm's radar signature and publicly say it's a supercell, and as long as it's based on a sound meteorological analysis, there's no issue. Not so simple, however, if I say something's a tropical storm when it officially wasn't. But that's what I'm going to do anyway. :)

To be clear, I'm not criticizing the National Hurricane Center for not calling it a tropical storm Sunday evening. In addition to the squirrelly, short-fused meteorological nature of that weather system, there are many operational considerations in terms of what's issued to the public, the coordination of that between the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices, etc. In this case, there were plenty of advisories, watches and warnings issued in the days leading up to the overall event, and then short-term ones issued specifically for what spun up offshore Sunday evening.

Rather, this is in the spirit of a post-storm analysis, learning about that infinite variety of curve balls that the atmosphere can throw. NHC does the same, sometimes classifying things differently in the postseason than in real-time, such as when they "posthumously" identified an unnamed subtropical storm in 2005.

I've blogged about official tropical-or-not classifications of cyclones in the U.S. in the past, when I wrote that the aforementioned Erin should have been classified as a tropical storm when it reorganized and reintensified over Oklahoma, and raising a similar issue about the remnant circulation of Olga when it reached Florida in December 2007.

This is an academic exercise of meteorological semantics, but it also has relevance for what it means for people affected, as winds were much stronger on a portion of the Florida coast Sunday evening than they otherwise would have been.

During the day Sunday, there was a feature just north of Grand Bahama Island and offshore of the east coast of Florida, which was trying to become a surface low pressure center -- a "closed" circulation -- within the larger overall system that had been pummeling the state with heavy rain, high surf, and gusty winds as a result of persistent, long, moist onshore fetch associated with the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure system to the north and relative low pressure to the south.

Early Sunday evening, I was about to relax, put on the headphones and go for a nice long walk in the neighborhood when I thought I ought to check on the latest radar imagery. I saw what's below! Whoa! That was one of those meteorological "Houston, do we have a problem?" moments.

[Click on image for larger version.]

Not only was there now a very well-defined, tight circulation (indicated by the red and green colors which show winds blowing in opposite directions in close juxtaposition) over the very warm Gulf Stream, but the velocities measured by radar were upwards of 80 mph, at a low altitude of approximately 2400'. Even though winds certainly weren't sustained that strong down at the Earth's surface, this suggested both that it wasn't just a circulation way up in the atmosphere, and that very strong winds could be transferred down to the surface in gusts.

A little while later, not only was the radar presentation (image below) of the "reflectivity" i.e. precipitation more circular, there was a signature of a partial eyewall. Velocity images at the time still showed a tight circulation with strongest winds right around the center. This is not only not typical of an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone, it doesn't fit with the latest official definition of a subtropical cyclone either. Furthermore, it was not collocated with the cold mid and upper level low.

But what about actual surface observations?

Welll ... I checked the surface pressure plot of the buoy which is just offshore of Cape Canaveral, and saw this!

That plummeting surface pressure provided sufficient evidence that there was a solid manifestation down to the surface of what radar was observing above.

Here, after the fact, are two graphs which further support that a cyclone characteristic of a tropical storm made landfall last night.

This is the pressure trace at Trident Pier near Cape Canaveral. The center of circulation came very close. Notice how sharply the pressure fell and then rose, typical of the center of a tropical cyclone passing overhead. Also, the pressure reached 999.5 millibars, typical of one of storm (rather than depression or hurricane) strength.

And here is a graph of the sustained wind speed. It's a little harder to decipher so I've added circles for assistance. The red one indicates a sustained wind speed of tropical storm force. Where the line is circled in light blue shows that just a very short time later the wind had gone to nearly calm, as the eye-like portion of the storm came overhead. Then the wind quickly increased again (orange). Also, the wind shifted to the opposite direction, indicative of a closed surface circulation, as were other surface observations.

Stephen Sponsler, a meteorologist who lives right where the circulation came onshore, has posted some interesting observations here and here on Facebook .

The one piece of information that is unavailable is the detail of the temperature structure in the heart of the circulation. By definition, tropical cyclones are "warm-core," which is as it sounds: the temperature in the vertical core of the cyclone extending up through the atmosphere is higher than in the air surrounding it. Absent aircraft recon, or a "radiosonde" balloon having been released right as the tiny center passed overhead, we can't be certain of this aspect.

But what's known as a "cyclone phase" analysis indicated the system was warm-core [see addendum below for more info], and the preponderance of other available evidence suggests that this cyclone at the time it approached the coast and made landfall was more of a tropical cyclone by nature than a subtropical or non-tropical one. It was very short-lived and small in size, but there have been other very small ones, such as Lorenzo in 2007, and a number of very short-lived tropical cyclones. Likewise, while this storm had a sheared and asymmetric appearance on satellite imagery, there have been many tropical cyclones with asymmetry and upper-level wind shear.

Whatever it's called, there's one thing we can all agree on! The result:

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[Monday evening addendum: Although that "cyclone phase" diagram to which I linked had the cyclone as being solidly warm-core, it also showed that warm core as being relatively shallow. Analyses from other models such as this one presented a warm core of moderate depth. A shallow to moderate, rather than deep, warm core can be an indication of a cyclone which is more subtropical than tropical. But it depends on the situation; in the past there have been plenty of shallow-to-moderate warm-core systems as analyzed by this method which were officially classified as tropical cyclones, even hurricanes, and the nature of the winds in this case were more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. In any event, while there is a subtropical-vs.-tropical aspect given the subjectivity and limitations and gray areas involved, this duck was not walking, swimming, or quacking like a non-tropical one!]

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Tropical Storm Leslie slowly moves past Bermuda

HAMILTON, Bermuda – Tropical Storm Leslie's outer bands buffeted Bermuda with gusty winds and rain Sunday as it slowly edged past the wary British enclave on a path that was expected to take it to Canada's Newfoundland later in the week.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

The government reopened the L.F. Wade International Airport in the early evening after keeping it closed for most of the day due to tropical storm winds. Major airlines already had canceled flights to the British Atlantic territory of about 65,000 inhabitants.

As Leslie gradually spun away from Bermuda into the northern Atlantic, the Bermuda Police Service said there were no reports of any major damage or injuries. Bus services resumed.

But scattered power outages affected hundreds of customers, and some roads were littered with tree branches and other debris. At least one street pole fell in central Hamilton.

Government officials were breathing a sigh of relief since Leslie had several days ago been forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane as it passed Bermuda, possibly as a direct strike.

"Despite a few power outages and cancelled flights it will be business as usual tomorrow. I would ask the public to remain cautious as there may be loose tree limbs and debris, and the ocean is still dangerous for swimming," said National Security Minister Wayne Perinchief.

Schools will not hold classes Monday, and sea ferry services were suspended while the fleet and docks are inspected.

Most residents of Bermuda, a financial haven and tourist destination about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast, were taking the effects of the storm in stride. The territory has tough building codes and its people are used to strong storms.

"It's an excuse for a lazy day at home," said Natasha Hector, a resident of Bermuda's Southampton parish who is originally from Oxfordshire, England.

Tia Smith hunkered down at home Sunday in Hamilton parish with her husband, Tim; 5-year-old daughter, Willow; and 1-year-old son, Rowan. She said they dutifully prepared for a hurricane in recent days.

"Just a quiet day of movies and board games for us," she said.

Philippa Raven, who is visiting from London, said she was enjoying watching the storm from her friends' hilltop home.

"It's a good view and it's quite nice just watching it outside when you are cozy inside," said Raven, who arrived in Bermuda on Thursday.

Bermuda was forecast to get from two to four inches of rain from Leslie.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm had weakened slightly early Sunday, and it maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical storm winds extended up to 195 miles from its center. By late afternoon, it was about 175 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and moving north at 14 mph.

U.S. forecasters said Leslie could regain hurricane strength Tuesday over open ocean as it was expected to approach Newfoundland.

As Leslie moves northward, swells kicked up by the storm will affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, the Canadian Maritimes, the northern Leeward Islands and the U.S. Caribbean territories for the next couple of days.

Far out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was a Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph and was not considered any threat to land. For a few hours Thursday, it was the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving slowly toward the west at 5 mph. It was expected to take a turn to the northwest and then north-northwest Monday. It was forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto weakens over Mexico

VERACRUZ, Mexico – Ernesto weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland Friday, killing seven people and dumping rains in the mountains of Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

By Felix Marquez, AP

Vendors that were caught unprepared try to recover their belongings after high waves dragged their beach stalls into the sea in Veracruz, Mexico.

By Felix Marquez, AP

Vendors that were caught unprepared try to recover their belongings after high waves dragged their beach stalls into the sea in Veracruz, Mexico.

In Veracruz state, two people were killed early Friday, including a teenage girl who was inside a car dragged by a river current and a 62-year-old man who was struck by lightning, the state's civil protection department said in a statement.

It said three members of a family died Thursday night when strong winds knocked down a tree that fell on their car, the state's civil protection department said in a statement.

A 38-year-old man, his wife and their 8-year-old boy were killed, it added.

In neighboring Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area Thursday, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen. "People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

Ernesto came ashore Thursday near the waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

Coatzacoalcos, a major oil port, got seven inches (177 millimeters) of rain in the 24 hours before Ernesto's center passed just a few miles (kilometers) away, according to Mexico's weather service. San Pedro in the neighboring state of Tabasco had seen more than 10 inches (273 millimeters).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's sustained winds had decreased to 35 mph (55 kph) by early Friday. It said the storm would continue weakening and should dissipate by midday Friday, although it warned that heavy rains could continue into Friday night.

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula and then spun into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Early Friday, the storm was centered about 100 miles (160 kilometers) northwest of Oaxaca, Mexico, and moving west near 13 mph (20 kph).

The U.S. hurricane center said Ernesto still had the potential to cause flooding and could produce rainfalls of up to 15 inches in some parts of the mountainous areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca states before dissipating.

There were no reports of major flooding in Veracruz state and there have been only minor landslides on some roads, said Raul Zarrabal, the state's communications secretary.

A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday far from land. It was the seventh tropical depression to form in the Atlantic and forecasters said it could strengthen into a tropical storm Friday as it took a path toward the Caribbean. Early Friday, it had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was 930 miles (1,495 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start and will likely stay busy, producing a few more storms than originally predicted, U.S. forecasters said Thursday.

Forecasters said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that favor storm formation mean chances are higher for an above-normal season. However, that is tempered with the expected development of an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific that may suppress storms later in the season.

In the Pacific, Gilma weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm and was not seen as a threat to land. It was about 665 miles (1,070 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph).

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto kills 2 in Mexico

VERACRUZ, Mexico (AP) —Tropical Storm Ernesto lost strength as it moved inland early Friday, though forecasters warned it could still dump dangerous rains in the mountains of Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

By Jose Dominguez, AFP/Getty Images

A man stands on a damaged pier in Mahahual, Mexico, after the passage of Ernesto on Wednesday.

By Jose Dominguez, AFP/Getty Images

A man stands on a damaged pier in Mahahual, Mexico, after the passage of Ernesto on Wednesday.

In Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area Thursday, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen. "People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

Ernesto came ashore near the waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

Coatzacoalcos, a major oil port, got seven inches (177 millimeters) of rain in the 24 hours before Ernesto's center passed just a few miles (kilometers) away, according to Mexico's weather service. San Pedro in the neighboring state of Tabasco had seen more than 10 inches (273 millimeters).

About 2,000 army and navy personnel were on standby to head to inland mountains to help in rescue work if needed, said Noemi Guzman, Veracruz state civil defense director. Guzman said no flooding had been reported at any of the state's many rivers.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's sustained winds had declined to 40 mph (65 kph) by late Thursday, just above the minimum 39 mph to be considered a tropical storm. It said the storm would continue weakening through the night and should dissipate by midday Friday, although it warned that heavy rains could continue into Friday night.

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula and then spun into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Late Thursday, the storm was centered about 85 miles (135 kilometers) southwest of the port city of Veracruz, moving to the west at 14 mph (22 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto still had the potential to cause flooding and could produce rainfalls of up to 15 inches in some parts of the mountainous areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca states before dissipating.

There were no reports of major flooding in Veracruz state and there have been only minor landslides on some roads, said Raul Zarrabal, the state's communications secretary.

A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday far from land. It was the seventh tropical depression to form in the Atlantic and forecasters said it could strengthen into a tropical storm Friday as it took a path toward the Caribbean. Late Thursday, it had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was 1,045 miles (1,680 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start and will likely stay busy, producing a few more storms than originally predicted, U.S. forecasters said Thursday.

Forecasters said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that favor storm formation mean chances are higher for an above-normal season. However, that is tempered with the expected development of an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific that may suppress storms later in the season.

In the Pacific, Gilma weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm and was not seen as a threat to land. It was about 695 miles (1,115 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph (110 kph).

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Gulf on alert as Tropical Storm Debby's path 'uncertain'

A hard-to-predict tropical storm is threatening the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas. Even though the storm isn't far from shore, where it's going to land is more mysterious than usual.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center's two most accurate storm models are pointing in opposite directions about where Tropical Storm Debby is heading, center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen says.

"This is one of the most uncertain scenarios we've had in a long, long time," Feltgen says. "Our two most accurate models don't agree with each other."

The most accurate model predicts the storm will change its current northeastern course suddenly and head west. It would hit Louisiana on Thursday morning and cause heavy rains as far west as Houston.

The other model, only slightly less accurate in the past, predicts the tropical storm will stay on the same northerly path or slightly east. The storm would strike the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning, and tropical storm conditions could occur almost as far away as Tampa.

As of 2 p.m. ET, the center of Debby was located about 200 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 105 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Fla., according to the hurricane center.

Its 60-mph winds were kicking up rough waves along Florida Panhandle beaches. If the first model is correct, the storm will take a sharp left turn Monday morning and head to Louisiana.

Feltgen says the models disagree about the effect of a high-altitude weather system on the tropical storm's path. The first model says this system will grab Tropical Storm Debby and drag it westward. The second model says it won't.

Both models agree the storm is unlikely to have hurricane-force winds when it hits land. But heavy rains and maximum winds above 50 mph are likely and flash flooding possible.

So far, the government reports that nine oil and gas production platforms and one drilling rig have been evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico. That has suspended 8% of the region's oil and gas production, not enough to affect prices nationally.

With Debby's formation in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, this marks the first time in recorded weather history that four named tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic before the end of June, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

Never before since record-keeping began in 1851 has the fourth tropical storm of any Atlantic hurricane season been detected before July, a feat Debby achieved this year with a week to spare, she adds.

Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Fla., reports meteorologist Jeff Masters of private weather forecasting company Weather Underground.

"Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue."

The Pensacola area is at most risk, Feltgen says, because heavy rains caused flooding two weeks ago. "The ground is still saturated and its capacity to take more heavy rains is limited," he says.

If the storm heads west, Pensacola would get one to three inches of rain. If it doesn't change course, Tropical Storm Debby would drop five to 10 inches of rain on the Panhandle and as much as 15 inches in patches.

In Louisiana, Plaquemines Parish declared a state of emergency and started to sandbag levees. The National Hurricane Center said the tropical storm was not likely to hit New Orleans directly.

"We're always concerned about systems that aren't fully developed and could land anywhere," says Rupert Lacy, county emergency management director in Gulfport, Miss., in the middle of the two predictions.

His area got seven inches of rain two weeks ago. "Right now, people are ready to go and on a short leash, until we can have great confidence about where it will land."

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Bud weakens to tropical storm off Mexico's coast

PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico (AP) – Bud weakened to a tropical storm Friday as heavy rain began to pelt a string of laid-back beach resorts and small mountain villages on Mexico's Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta.

By Bruno Gonzalez, AP

A navy vehicle drives along a street in the coastal town of Barra de Navidad as the community prepares for the storm's arrival along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday.

By Bruno Gonzalez, AP

A navy vehicle drives along a street in the coastal town of Barra de Navidad as the community prepares for the storm's arrival along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said that maximum sustained winds that were once blowing at 115 mph (185 kph) had slowed to 70 mph (113 kph) by Friday night. The government of Mexico changed the hurricane warning for the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a tropical storm warning. Hurricane watches were also discontinued.

Forecasters said the storm would continue to weaken and the center would move over land late Friday or Saturday.

Heavy rain started Friday night in Puerto Vallarta and rainfall was expected to accumulate from 6 to 10 inches in many spots. Mexican authorities canceled school in 11 communities expected to be hit by heavy rains in Jalisco state. Emergency workers prepared emergency shelters, many of them in empty school classrooms. Emergency officials in Puerto Vallarta said they were closely monitoring villages that had been hit by flooding and mudslides in previous hurricanes and tropical storms.

Rains and 6-foot (2-meter) high waves pelted Melaque, a beach town on the Bahia de Navidad, about 60 mph (100 kilometers) east of the sparsely populated stretch of coast where the storm's center was expected to come ashore during the night.

Rafael Galvez, manager of the Hotel Bahia in Melaque, said his staff would board up windows before Bud's arrival.

"I went through Wilma in Cancun," which hit as a Category 4, Galvez said. "This is a little less severe."

Category 2 Hurricane Jova hit the area in October, killing six people and flooding parts of Melaque and neighboring Barra de Navidad.

"There was a lot of flooding in the whole area, and we lost electricity," Galvez recalled. But this week, he said, only seven of his hotel's 26 rooms were occupied, and none of the hotel's guests were planning to leave.

The hurricane center said the storm would hit land, move a little inland and then make a U-turn and head back out into the Pacific. Rain, rather than wind, could be the big threat, with the center warning of the "potential for life-threatening mudslides" in steep terrain inland.

The government of Jalisco state prepared hundreds of cots and dozens of heavy vehicles such as bulldozers that could be needed to move debris.

Jalisco's civil defense office said two shelters had been opened in Cihuatlan, a town just inland from Melaque that was hard hit by flooding from Jova.

The region is experienced at handling hurricanes, Galvez noted. "The government planning has helped a lot," he noted.

Officials in Puerto Vallarta said they were in close contact with managers of the hundreds of hotels in the city in case tourists need to move to eight emergency shelters, but on Friday night they said that appeared unlikely. It said the sea along the city's famous beachfront was calm, but swimming had been temporarily banned as a precaution.

A separate storm was pounding much of Cuba and the Bahamas on Friday. Cuba's civil defense agency reported that a French citizen, Alain Manaud, and Silvestre Fortun Alvarez of Cuba were missing after trying to cross rain-swollen rivers, according to the government's Prensa Latina news agency. It said a search for them was continuing.

An official at the French Embassy in Havana said Manaud was 66 and had lived in Cuba for several years. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly.

The agency quoted government meteorologists as saying more than 20 inches (500 millimeters) of rain had fallen on parts of the central province of Sancti Spiritus.

The U.S. hurricane center reported that the system had about a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Beryl makes landfall in Florida

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Irene was tropical storm, not hurricane, over NJ (AP)

MIAMI – Irene was a tropical storm — not a hurricane — when it made landfall in New Jersey in August, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have determined after a review.

The deadly storm was a Category 1 hurricane when it made landfall Aug. 27 in North Carolina. The storm made landfall again Aug. 28 near Atlantic City, N.J., where forecasters had said it was a hurricane with 75 mph winds.

However, after reviewing their data, forecasters have determined that Irene had weakened to a tropical storm with winds around 69 mph when it crossed New Jersey's coast. Hurricanes have top winds of at least 74 mph.

"It's a very small change," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the hurricane center. "The difference residents would see is about the same. There's no perceivable difference."

Forecasters posted their report on Irene on Friday. The hurricane center occasionally upgrades or downgrades tropical storms as it reviews storm data at the end of the six-month hurricane season. In Irene's case, a review of the data supported downgrading the storm at the time it hit New Jersey, Blake said.

"Five-knot changes like that happen all the time. At this time, it just happened near land," Blake said.

Irene was one of the costliest storms in U.S. history. It caught much of the Eastern seaboard by surprise as it churned up the coast, prompting mass evacuations in New York City before it dumped torrential rains over parts of New England. Devastating flooding in Vermont damaged or destroyed hundreds of miles of roads, scores of bridges and hundreds of homes and left about a dozen communities cut off except for supply drops by National Guard helicopters.

The storm killed more than 50 people in the U.S., Caribbean and Canada.

The six-month Atlantic hurricane season that ended Nov. 30 produced 19 tropical storms, including seven hurricanes, making it one of the busiest seasons on record. It was the sixth straight year without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.

Hurricanes are considered major when they reach Category 3, with top winds of at least 111 mph. Storms are named when their winds reach speeds of at least 39 mph.

The 2011 season's storm totals include an upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status and the addition of an unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

The next Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

___

Online:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Kenneth weakens to tropical depression (AP)

MIAMI – Forecasters say Kenneth continues to weaken and has been downgraded to a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific.

There is no threat to land from what had been the strongest late-season hurricane in that area on record when it earlier reached Category 4 status.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Kenneth has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 kph). The storm was centered about 1,155 miles (1,860 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

It is moving west at 14 mph (22 kph)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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New tropical depression forms off Mexico's coast (AP)

MIAMI – A new tropical depression has formed in the Pacific off Mexico's coast as a Hurricane Jova begins moving inland farther north.

The new depression has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 kph) early Wednesday and could strengthen to a tropical storm later in the day. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Barra de Tonala, Mexico, and extends southward to the Guatemalan border.

The depression is centered about 150 miles (240 kilometers) southeast of Salina Cruz and is moving north near 5 mph (7 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the depression's center will approach the coast Wednesday evening.

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Tropical Storm Ophelia gains some strength: NHC (Reuters)

(Reuters) – Tropical Storm Ophelia has gained a little strength it moves northwards to the open Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Located about 180 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, Ophelia was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour (95 km per hour), the early Thursday report said.

Tropical cyclones become named tropical storms when their winds exceed 39 miles per hour and become hurricanes when their winds reach more than 74 mph.

(Reporting by Antonita Devotta; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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Tropical Storm Ophelia Likely to Reform (ContributorNetwork)

The National Weather Service states Tropical Storm Ophelia's remnants are just over the Northern Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean as of today. There is a 90 percent chance this system will develop into a tropical storm again as it moves to the west-northwest. Thus far the system is not near any huge land masses, but it could eventually reach the eastern United States.

Trailing behind Ophelia is Tropical Storm Philippe, which is forecast to turn north into the Atlantic and go out of harm's way. Ever since Hurricane Irene slammed into the East Coast, the Atlantic basin has been active with tropical systems. Luckily strong storms have avoided the mainland of the United States.

Forecasters predicted a more active than normal hurricane season this year. The Climate Prediction Center proposed as many as 19 named storms this year. Philippe is No. 16 on the list with another two months to go in hurricane season.

The Houston Chronicle reports all of these tropical systems haven't done the exceptional drought in Texas any good whatsoever. After Sept. 24, the chances of hurricanes hitting the Texas coast are very low in terms of historical numbers. The last late-season hurricane to make landfall in the Lone Star State was Hurricane Jerry in 1989.

The entire state of Texas is covered in a severe drought or worse. If anyone needs a huge dowsing storm from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, Texas is a prime candidate. They weren't so fortunate this year as most tropical systems stayed away from the southern United States. Tropical Storm Lee made landfall over Louisiana and only brushed the eastern edges of Texas.

Places like Dallas, Austin and Del Rio have set records for the most 100-degree days in one year. Dallas has had 70 days at 100 degrees or greater, eclipsing the old record of 69 set in 1980. Austin's Camp Mabry set a mark of 86 days that obliterated the old record of 69 set in 1925. San Antonio needs three more days to break 2009's record of 59 100-degree days.

The wettest months in Texas have already passed for this year and fall may not bring much relief. The drought will need inundating rain for at least a week to dissipate. Crop losses are already in the billions of dollars with cattle farmers taking their herds to be sold.

As hurricane season draws to a close, the exception drought may continue until at least next year for weary residents of Texas.

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Tropical Storm Philippe strengthens far from land (AP)

MIAMI – Forecasters say Tropical Storm Philippe is posing no threat to land, but has strengthened somewhat after forming over the far eastern Atlantic.

At 5 a.m. ET Sunday, the National Weather Service said Philippe was about 410 miles (660 kilometers) west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Its top sustained winds have risen some to 45 mph (75 kph) and Philippe is moving west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph). A turn to the northwest was expected to start Monday.

There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Meanwhile, Ophelia was still barely a tropical storm as it struggled in the Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). It was 235 miles (380 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands, and moving west at 12 mph (19 kph).

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Tropical Storm Lee Stalls and Floods Athens, Pa. (ContributorNetwork)

FIRST PERSON | When Tropical Storm Lee decided to hang out over the southern tier of New York and Pennsylvania on Sept. 3, no one could have guessed what horrors lay ahead for Athens, Pa.

After a few days of steady rains, Wednesday became the catalyst for a tragedy. Athens received 3 inches of rainfall, which sent swollen creeks pouring into the rivers. The Susquehanna River began to rise half a foot an hour.

At 6:30 p.m., members of the Athens Borough firemen began to go door to door alerting residents to prepare to move fast. It was voluntary to leave at first. I grew up in this area and when Hurricane Agnes rolled through this area in June 1972. I saw the devastation with my own eyes. I was not sticking around.

I spent a few hours with my son Timmy, who is 19, and we put lots of things at least 3 feet off the floor. I prayed that 3 feet would be enough. When Jay, my boyfriend, came with the truck, we were ready to get out of town.

We left our home in Athens at 10:30 p.m. on Wednesday and prayed that we would have a home to return to. We went to the home of Thomas and Diana McBride (my sister) on Laurel Hill, far away from the rivers. I thought my daughter and her husband were following us out, but they did not.

By 3 a.m. Thursday, they were evacuating the entire town while sand-bagging efforts on the banks of the Susquehanna failed. At nearly 5 a.m., my son sent a text message that simply said "I have Amber." Those were the longest two hours of my life. With my two older children safe and sound, I fell back to sleep.

By 6 a.m., most of the downtown area was under water up to the first floor. The rain was still falling as it had for a few days and it continued to fall until early afternoon. We watched the television with my niece Karmie and her son. We saw the horror unfolding in our town and many towns south of us as the raging river rolled south. A home flowing down the river, a soaked woodchuck clinging to a fence and two doe in the middle of the river are images I will never forget.

The water in town never crossed the railroad tracks where I live, my home is safe with no damage. Three blocks down homes are in ruins.

I am very thankful my home was spared because like many people in my town, I do not have flood insurance. Once we learned the dam upriver had held up, I came back to my home. My daughter and my grandkids were here waiting for me, fresh from a shelter. Amber, her husband Tim and the three kids are with us until power is on in downtown Athens. Their townhouse had some water, but they cannot go back until the power is on. They may be here a few weeks.

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Maria prompts tropical storm watch in Bermuda (AP)

MIAMI – A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda as Tropical Storm Maria crawls up the Atlantic.

Early Tuesday, Maria has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (85 kph) with some strengthening forecast during the next two days.

Maria is centered about 340 miles (545 kilometers) east of the southeastern Bahamas and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph (7 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Maria is expected to pass west of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maria's forecast track shows it curving away from the U.S.

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100 Animals Die in Petco Store From Tropical Storm Lee Flooding (Time.com)

At least 100 animals died in a New York Petco store after the building was flooded by Tropical Storm Lee.

The animals, which included hamsters, rodents, reptiles, birds and aquatic life, were left in the Johnson City, N.Y., store during the storm. Whether they died from drowning or starvation has not been disclosed.

The building, near Binghamton, was evacuated and later besieged by flood waters. Store employees discovered the animals on Friday, the first day they were allowed to enter the pet store after the storm.

(LIST: Top 10 Strange Mass Animal Deaths)

The animal deaths reportedly could have been prevented. Marcie Whichard, a Petco executive, blamed the incident on miscommunication between the city and the store regarding evacuation orders.

On the company website, Petco CEO Jim Myers discussed the "unfortunate tragedy." Myers wrote, "Our store in Johnson City is relatively new, we were not operating the last time flooding threatened the community and we misjudged the risk to this location."

Despite the nearly 100 deaths, the majority of the animals were rescued, according to Myers. "We feel terrible that we did not do more to avoid this tragedy, are truly saddened by what has occurred, and accept full responsibility."

At the time of this writing, Myers' apology drew more than 1,000 comments, some claiming to have notified People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. A Facebook page has also cropped up for the boycott of Petco.

MORE: Top 10 Pets in Power

Kai Ma is a TIME contributor. Find her on Twitter at @Kai_Ma or on Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.

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Tropical storm Katia slams into Ireland, Britain (AP)

DUBLIN – Tropical Storm Katia shut down roads and power and led to one death Monday in Ireland and Britain, where residents braced for the strongest wind gusts in 15 years.

Forecasters in both countries said Monday's gusts topped 80 mph (125 kph) as the storm — previously a hurricane as it roared across the Atlantic — made driving, shipfaring and even walking dangerous in broad swathes of Ireland, Scotland and northern England.

In northeast England's County Durham, a driver died after a tree fell on a car on the highway, Durham police said. Officers later warned all drivers to be careful driving through the high winds.

CE Electric UK, which provides power in the north east of England, said it was working to restore the power supply to about 10,000 properties.

Most ferry services between Ireland and Britain were canceled, and fishing boats along the Atlantic coasts of Ireland and Scotland were warned to head into port.

Britain's government forecasting service, the Met Office, told the public to be ready for the strongest winds since October 1996, when the tail end of Hurricane Lili killed five Britons and caused an estimated 150 million pounds ($250 million) of damage there.

The Met Office said winds were averaging 55 mph (88 kph) while the strongest reported gust so far was 82 mph (128 kph) at a mountain station in North Wales. Gusts in the Northern Ireland border town of Castlederg reached 74 mph (118 kph).

Heavy rainfall hit the north of Ireland and central Scotland, where Transport Minister Keith Brown reassured travelers that emergency crews were ready to handle accidents, road blockages and power outages.

"Robust contingency arrangements are in place so people should not panic," Brown said.

The Tour of Britain cycling race canceled Monday's planned second stage across northern England after deeming the course's most exposed and elevated points too dangerous.

Ireland, which is regularly buffeted by strong Atlantic winds, also warned of exceptionally dangerous driving conditions and the risk of widespread coastal flooding. Towns along Ireland's Atlantic coast last experienced heavy flooding in November 2010.

A bridge spanning a bay in County Donegal, northwest Ireland, was closed Monday as a precaution, while fallen trees obstructed roads in several other parts of the island, including Limerick in the southwest.

Ireland's Electricity Supply Board said its engineers were trying to restore power to about 11,000 homes along the Irish Republic's border with Northern Ireland. Another 2,000 homes in Dublin lost power because of toppled electricity lines.

Authorities in Norway, Sweden and Denmark said they expected gale-force winds to arrive there Tuesday.

Ireland and Britain periodically catch the tail-end of Atlantic hurricanes as they travel northeast with the Gulf Stream and weaken into tropical storms.

The Met Office said Britain and Ireland felt the winds of one former hurricane in 2009, three in 2006, two in 2000, one in 1998 and one in 1996, when Lili's winds topped 90 mph (145 kph) and brought widespread disruption to Britain and Ireland.

Katia is the second major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, forming two weeks ago near the west African islands of Cape Verde. Katia traveled in a C-shape route toward the Caribbean and the eastern United States but didn't reach landfall there, then headed northeast to Europe.

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