Gulf on alert as Tropical Storm Debby's path 'uncertain'

A hard-to-predict tropical storm is threatening the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas. Even though the storm isn't far from shore, where it's going to land is more mysterious than usual.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center's two most accurate storm models are pointing in opposite directions about where Tropical Storm Debby is heading, center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen says.

"This is one of the most uncertain scenarios we've had in a long, long time," Feltgen says. "Our two most accurate models don't agree with each other."

The most accurate model predicts the storm will change its current northeastern course suddenly and head west. It would hit Louisiana on Thursday morning and cause heavy rains as far west as Houston.

The other model, only slightly less accurate in the past, predicts the tropical storm will stay on the same northerly path or slightly east. The storm would strike the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning, and tropical storm conditions could occur almost as far away as Tampa.

As of 2 p.m. ET, the center of Debby was located about 200 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 105 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Fla., according to the hurricane center.

Its 60-mph winds were kicking up rough waves along Florida Panhandle beaches. If the first model is correct, the storm will take a sharp left turn Monday morning and head to Louisiana.

Feltgen says the models disagree about the effect of a high-altitude weather system on the tropical storm's path. The first model says this system will grab Tropical Storm Debby and drag it westward. The second model says it won't.

Both models agree the storm is unlikely to have hurricane-force winds when it hits land. But heavy rains and maximum winds above 50 mph are likely and flash flooding possible.

So far, the government reports that nine oil and gas production platforms and one drilling rig have been evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico. That has suspended 8% of the region's oil and gas production, not enough to affect prices nationally.

With Debby's formation in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, this marks the first time in recorded weather history that four named tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic before the end of June, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

Never before since record-keeping began in 1851 has the fourth tropical storm of any Atlantic hurricane season been detected before July, a feat Debby achieved this year with a week to spare, she adds.

Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Fla., reports meteorologist Jeff Masters of private weather forecasting company Weather Underground.

"Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue."

The Pensacola area is at most risk, Feltgen says, because heavy rains caused flooding two weeks ago. "The ground is still saturated and its capacity to take more heavy rains is limited," he says.

If the storm heads west, Pensacola would get one to three inches of rain. If it doesn't change course, Tropical Storm Debby would drop five to 10 inches of rain on the Panhandle and as much as 15 inches in patches.

In Louisiana, Plaquemines Parish declared a state of emergency and started to sandbag levees. The National Hurricane Center said the tropical storm was not likely to hit New Orleans directly.

"We're always concerned about systems that aren't fully developed and could land anywhere," says Rupert Lacy, county emergency management director in Gulfport, Miss., in the middle of the two predictions.

His area got seven inches of rain two weeks ago. "Right now, people are ready to go and on a short leash, until we can have great confidence about where it will land."

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