Improving forecasts for rain-on-snow flooding

Many of the worst West Coast winter floods pack a double punch. Heavy rains and melting snow wash down the mountains together to breach riverbanks, wash out roads and flood buildings.

These events are unpredictable and difficult to forecast. Yet they will become more common as the planet warms and more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.

University of Washington mountain hydrology experts are using the physics behind these events to better predict the risks.

"One of the main misconceptions is that either the rain falls and washes the snow away, or that heat from the rain is melting the snow," said Nicholas Wayand, a UW doctoral student in civil and environmental engineering. He will present his research Dec. 18 at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Most of the largest floods on record in the western U.S. are associated with rain falling on snow. But it's not that the rain is melting or washing away the snow.

Instead, it's the warm, humid air surrounding the drops that is most to blame for the melting, Wayand said. Moisture in the air condenses on the cold snow just like water droplets form on a cold drink can. The energy released when the humid air condenses is absorbed by the snow. The other main reason is that rainstorms bring warmer air, and this air blows across the snow to melt its surface. His work support previous research showing that these processes provide 60 to 90 percent of the energy for melting.

Places that experience rain-on-snow flooding are cities on rivers that begin in the mountains, such as Sacramento, California, and Centralia, Washington. In the 1997 New Year's Day flood in Northern California, melting snow exacerbated flooding, which broke levees and caused millions of dollars in damage. The biggest recent rain-on-snow event in Washington was the 2009 flood in the Snoqualmie basin. And the Calgary flood in summer of 2013 included snow from the Canadian Rockies that caused rivers to overflow their banks.

The UW researchers developed a model by recreating the 10 worst rain-on-snow flooding events between 1980 and 2008 in three regions: the Snoqualmie basin in Washington state, the upper San Joaquin basin in central California and the East North Fork of the Feather River basin in southern California.

Their results allow them to gauge the risks for any basin and any incoming storm. The three factors that matter most, they found, are the shape of the basin, the elevation of the rain-to-snow transition before and during the storm, and the amount of tree cover. Basins most vulnerable to snowmelt are treeless basins with a lot of area within the rain-snow transition zone, where the precipitation can fall as snow and then rain.

Trees reduce the risk of flooding because they slow the storm's winds.

"If you've ever been in a forest on a windy day, it's a lot calmer," Wayand said. That slows the energy transferred from condensation and from contact with warm air to the snowpack.

Simulations also show that meltwater accounted for up to about a quarter of the total flooding. That supports earlier research showing that snow is not the main contributor to rain-on-snow floods, but cannot be neglected since it adds water to an already heavy winter rainstorm.

The complexity of mountain weather also plays a role.

"The increase in precipitation with elevation is much greater than usual for some of these storms," said Jessica Lundquist, a UW associate professor of civil and environmental engineering. "Higher flows can result from heavier rainfall rates at higher elevations, rather than from snowmelt."

In related work, Lundquist's group has developed a tennis-ball snow sensor and is measuring growth and melt of the snowpack in the foothills east of Seattle. The scientists aim to better understand how changes in climate and forestry practices might affect municipal water supplies and flood risks.

Wayand and another student in the group have developed a high school curriculum for Seattle teachers to explain rain-on-snow events and the physics behind why they occur. They hope to begin teaching the curriculum sometime next year.

The other collaborator on the work being presented in San Francisco is Martyn Clark at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

View the original article here

Statistics research could build consensus around climate forecasts

Huge levels of data associated with global warming are now being put together by research groups around the globe. Data from all of these numerous sources leads to di?erent climate forecasts hence, the necessity arises to mix information across data sets to reach a consensus regarding future climate estimations.

Inside a paper released last December within the SIAM Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, authors Matthew Heaton, Tamara Greasby, and Stephan Sain propose a record hierarchical Bayesian model that consolidates global warming information from observation-based data sets and climate models.

"The huge variety of climate data -- from reconstructions of historic temps and modern observational temperature dimensions to climate model forecasts of future climate -- appears to agree that global temps are altering," states author Matthew Heaton. "Where these data sources disagree, however, is as simple as just how much temps have transformed and therefore are likely to change later on. Our research seeks to mix a variety of causes of climate data, inside a statistically rigorous way, to find out a consensus how much temps are altering."

Utilizing a hierarchical model, the authors mix information from all of these various sources to acquire an ensemble estimate of current and future climate together with an connected way of measuring uncertainty. "Each climate databases gives us approximately just how much temps are altering. But, each databases also offers a diploma of uncertainty in the climate projection," states Heaton. "Record modeling is really a tool not only to obtain a consensus estimate of temperature change but additionally approximately our uncertainty relating to this temperature change."

The approach suggested within the paper combines information from observation-based data, general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs).

Observation-based data sets, which focus mainly on local and regional climate, are acquired if you take raw climate dimensions from weather stations and using it to some power grid defined within the globe. This enables the ultimate data product to supply an aggregate way of measuring climate instead of being limited to individual weather data sets. Such data sets are limited to current and historic periods of time. Another supply of information associated with observation-based data sets are reanalysis data takes hold which statistical model predictions and weather station findings are combined right into a single gridded renovation of climate within the globe.

GCMs are computer models which capture physical processes regulating the climate and oceans to simulate the response of temperature, precipitation, along with other meteorological variables in various situations. While a GCM portrayal of temperature wouldn't be accurate to some given day, these models give fairly good estimations for lengthy-term average temps, for example 30-year periods, which carefully match observed data. A large benefit of GCMs over observed and reanalyzed information is that GCMs can simulate climate systems later on.

RCMs are utilized to simulate climate on the specific region, instead of global simulations produced by GCMs. Since climate inside a specific region is impacted by the relaxation of Earth, atmospheric conditions for example temperature and moisture in the region's boundary are believed by utilizing other sources for example GCMs or reanalysis data.

By mixing information from multiple observation-based data sets, GCMs and RCMs, the model acquires a quote and way of measuring uncertainty for that climate, temporal trend, along with the variability of periodic average temps. The model was utilized to evaluate average summer time and winter temps for that Off-shore Southwest, Prairie and North Atlantic regions (observed in the look above) -- regions that represent three distinct environments. The idea is climate models would behave in a different way for all these regions. Data from each region was considered individually to ensure that the model might be fit to every region individually.

"Our knowledge of just how much temps are altering is reflected in most the information open to us," states Heaton. "For instance, one databases might claim that temps are growing by 2 levels Celsius while another source indicates temps are growing by 4 levels. So, will we believe a couple-degree increase or perhaps a 4-degree increase? The reply is most likely 'neither' because mixing data sources together indicates that increases would probably be approximately 2 and 4 levels. The thing is that that not one databases has all of the solutions. And, only by mixing a variety of causes of climate data shall we be really in a position to evaluate just how much we believe temps are altering."

Some previous such work concentrates on mean or average values, the authors within this paper acknowledge that climate within the larger sense includes versions between years, trends, earnings and extreme occasions. Therefore, the hierarchical Bayesian model used here concurrently views the typical, linear trend and interannual variability (variation between years). Many previous models also assume independence between climate models, whereas this paper makes up about parallels shared by various models -- for example physical equations or fluid dynamics -- and fits between data sets.

"While our work is a great initial step in mixing a variety of causes of climate information, we still are unsuccessful for the reason that we still omit many viable causes of climate information," states Heaton. "In addition, our work concentrates on increases/decreases in temps, but similar analyses are necessary to estimate consensus alterations in other meteorological variables for example precipitation. Finally, hopefully to grow our analysis from regional temps (say, over just part of the U.S.) to global temps."

View the original article here

Global warming could increase thunderstorm severity, climatologist forecasts

This spring might be a lot more like a lion than the usual lamb. John Harrington Junior. is really a synoptic climatologist and professor of geography at Kansas Condition College who studies weather occasions, how frequently they occur and also the conditions once they happened. He states global warming might be growing the seriousness of storms.

"Among the large concerns I've would be that the warmer atmospheric temps will drive a bit more evaporation from the sea and also the Gulf," Harrington stated. "One thing that can help storms be more powerful is getting more moisture, to ensure that added moisture could raise the height and harshness of a tall cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud."

Harrington stated the additional moisture will make storms more powerful and much more potent later on.

This season might also bring a general change in climate conditions because of El Ni?o, that the U . s . States hasn’t experienced for around 2 yrs. El Ni?o warms up the temperature from the Gulf Of Mexico, which produces cooler and wetter conditions for that West Coast. Harrington states there's a great possibility El Ni?o will arrive this fall entering winter.

View the original article here

New record models can lead to better forecasts of sea designs

The earth's oceans cover greater than 72 percent of Earth's surface, impact a main issue with the carbon cycle, and lead to variability in global climate and weather designs. However, precisely predicting the health of the sea is restricted by current techniques. Now, scientists in the College of Missouri have applied complex record models to improve the precision of sea predicting that may influence the ways that forecasters predict lengthy-range occasions for example El Nino and also the lower quantity of a sea food chain -- among the world's biggest environments.

"The sea really is an essential area of the world's environment system due to its possibility to store carbon and warmth, but additionally due to being able to influence major atmospheric weather occasions for example droughts, severe weather and tornados," stated Chris Wikle, professor of statistics within the MU College of Arts and Science. "Simultaneously, it is crucial in creating a food chain that's a vital area of the world's fisheries."

The vastness from the world's oceans makes predicting its changes a challenging job for oceanographers and climate researchers. Researchers must use direct findings from the limited network of sea buoys and ships coupled with satellite pictures of various characteristics to produce physical and biological types of the sea. Wikle and Rob Milliff, a senior research connect in the College of Colorado, adopted a record "Bayesian hierarchical model" that enables these to mix various resources in addition to previous scientific understanding. Their method assisted enhance the conjecture of ocean surface temperature extremes and wind fields within the sea, which impact important features like the frequency of tornadoes in tornado alley and also the distribution of plankton in seaside regions -- a vital first stage from the sea food chain.

"Nate Silver from the New You are able to Occasions combined various resources to know and predict the uncertainty connected with elections," Wikle stated. "Just like that, we developed modern-day record techniques to mix various causes of data -- satellite images, data from sea buoys and ships, and scientific experience -- to higher comprehend the atmosphere within the sea and also the sea itself. This brought to appliances assistance to better predict the condition from the Mediterranean And Beyond, and also the lengthy-lead time conjecture of El Nino and La Nina. Missouri, like the majority of the world, is impacted by El Nino and La Nina (through droughts, surges and tornadoes) and also the cheapest quantity of a food chain affect all of us through its impact on Marine fisheries."

El Nino is really a gang of warm sea water temps that periodically evolves from the western coast of South Usa and may cause weather changes over the Gulf Of Mexico and also the U.S. La Nina may be the counterpart which affects atmospheric changes through the country. Wikle and the fellow scientists believe that, through better record techniques and models presently in development, a larger knowledge of these phenomena as well as their connected impacts can help forecasters better predict potentially catastrophic occasions, which will probably be progressively essential as our climate changes.

Wikle's study, "Uncertainty management in combined physical-biological lower trophic level sea ecosystem models," was funded simply through the National Science Foundation and it was released in Oceanography and Record Science.

Cite This Site:

College of Missouri-Columbia. "New record models can lead to better forecasts of sea designs." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 18 March 2014. .College of Missouri-Columbia. (2014, March 18). New record models can lead to better forecasts of sea designs. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 19, 2014 from world wide web.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318154927.htmUniversity of Missouri-Columbia. "New record models can lead to better forecasts of sea designs." ScienceDaily. world wide web.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318154927.htm (utilized April 19, 2014).

View the original article here

Warming climate may spread drying out to some third of earth: Warmth, not only rain fall, plays into new forecasts

Growing warmth is anticipated to increase dry conditions to much more farmland and metropolitan areas through the finish from the century than alterations in rain fall alone, states new research. A lot of the priority about future drought under climatic change has centered on rain fall forecasts, but greater evaporation rates might also play a huge role as warmer temps wring more moisture in the soil, even occasionally where rain fall is forecasted to improve, the scientists.

The research is among the first to make use of the most recent climate simulations to model the results of both altering rain fall and evaporation rates on future drought. Released this month within the journal Climate Dynamics, the research estimations that 12 % of land is going to be susceptible to drought by 2100 through rain fall changes alone however the drying out will spread to 30 % of land if greater evaporation rates in the added energy and humidity within the atmosphere is recognized as. A rise in evaporative drying out implies that even regions expected to obtain more rain, including important wheat, corn and grain devices within the western U . s . States and southeastern China, is going to be vulnerable to drought. The research excludes Antarctica.

"We all know from fundamental physics that warmer temps will assist you to dry things out," stated the study's lead author, Benjamin Prepare, an environment researcher with joint visits at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and also the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "Even when precipitation changes later on are uncertain, you will find top reasons to stress about water assets."

In the latest climate report, the Worldwide Panel on Global Warming (IPCC) alerts that soil moisture is anticipated to say no globally which already dry regions is going to be at and the higher chances of farming drought. The IPCC also forecasts a powerful possibility of soil moisture drying out within the Mediterranean, north western U . s . States and southern African regions, in conjuction with the Climate Dynamics study.

Using two drought metric formulations, the research authors evaluate forecasts of both rain fall and evaporative demand in the assortment of climate model simulations completed for that IPCC's 2013 climate report. Both metrics agree that elevated evaporative drying out will most likely tip marginally wet regions at mid-latitudes such as the U.S. Great Flatlands along with a swath of southeastern China into aridity. If precipitation were the only real consideration, these great farming centers wouldn't be considered vulnerable to drought. The scientists also state that dry zones in Guatemala, the Amazon . com and southern Africa will grow bigger. In Europe, the summer time aridity of A holiday in greece, Poultry, Italia and The country is anticipated to increase farther north into continental Europe.

"For agriculture, the moisture balance within the soil is exactly what really matters," stated study coauthor Jason Smerdon, an environment researcher at Lamont-Doherty. "If rain increases slightly but temps may also increase, drought is really a potential consequence."

Today, while rainwater periodically reduces crop yields occasionally, other regions are usually in a position to compensate to avert food shortages. Within the warmer weather for the future, however, crops in multiple regions could wither concurrently, the authors suggest. "Food-cost shocks turn into much more common," stated study coauthor Richard Seager, an environment researcher at Lamont-Doherty. Large metropolitan areas, particularly in arid regions, will have to carefully manage their water supplies, he added.

The research develops a growing body of research searching at just how evaporative demand influences hydroclimate. "It verifies something we have suspected for any very long time," stated Toby Ault, an environment researcher at Cornell College, who had been not active in the study. "Temperature alone could make drought more common. Studies such as this provide us with a couple of new effective tools to organize for and adjust to global warming."

Rain fall changes don't tell the entire story, concurs College of Nsw investigator Steven Sherwood, inside a recent Perspectives piece within the leading journal Science. "Many regions can get more rain, however it seems that couple of can get enough to help keep pace using the growing evaporative demand."

View the original article here

Model now able to street-level storm-tide forecasts

Water that increased in to the intersection of recent You are able to City's Canal and Hudson roads throughout Hurricane Sandy -- to select only one ton-ravaged locale -- was ultimately driven ashore by forces swirling 100s of miles in the Atlantic.

That easy fact shows not just the size and energy of the tropical cyclone, however the impossibility of modeling and predicting its possibility of seaside flooding around the fine scale required to most effectively make a response.

Now, research brought by Professor Harry Wang of William

View the original article here

Better climate forecasts for West Africa

The populace of West Africa keeps growing quickly. It needs to deal with an intricate meteorology, hard to rely on climate prognoses, and growing polluting of the environment. Over the following 5 years, extensive dimensions is going to be accomplished in this area, new climate and weather models is going to be developed, and development policy is planned to become supported underneath the DACCIWA EU project. DACCIWA covers the entire chain from natural and anthropogenic pollutants to impacts around the climate, environments, and health. The work matched by Package includes a budget of nearly nine million pounds.

Because of the greatest population growth worldwide, massive urbanization, along with a stable economic growth, nations in southern West Africa presently are uncovered to rapid change. The rapidly growing major metropolitan areas mostly are situated around the coast, farming production areas and forests are available directly behind. Within the metropolitan areas, the pollutants triggered by guy are growing strongly. Amongst others, these pollutants are triggered by traffic because of a largely outdated vehicle technology. Consequently from the growing fine dust pollution, individuals the metropolitan areas are progressively struggling with respiratory system illnesses. High ozone levels typically occur outdoors from the metropolitan areas and represent a danger factor for the sake of rural population too for farming production.

Based on the recent World Bank report, West Africa is probably the regions that'll be affected most by global global warming. Weather impacts caused by the huge conversion of natural forests into farming areas are supported with a change of regional climate. It's hardly been analyzed to date and it is triggered by anthropogenic pollutants in the combustion of non-renewable fuels and biomass coupled with natural pollutants of plants. Formation of solid and liquid aerosol contaminants is elevated. These aerosol contaminants behave as condensation nuclei and modify cloud formation. "We think that elevated cloud formation affects the entire monsoon system," Professor Peter Knippertz from the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) of Package describes. "These associations have hardly been analyzed for West Africa to date." Enhanced climate prognosis for West Africa may also affect regions situated far. "We all know, for instance, the West African monsoon interacts using the Indian monsoon as well as signifies a significant parameter impacting on Atlantic severe weather."

Inside the framework of DACCIWA, the scientists will first compile current data within an extensive measurement campaign with satellites, aircraft, and ground-based instruments. With the aid of the resulting dataset and various modeling activities, all relevant physical and chemical processes, for example emission, cloud formation, photo voltaic irradiation, precipitation, regional air flow, climate, and health, is going to be understood far better. Jobs are targeted at creating a new generation of climate and weather models, predicting heavy monsoon rains, and prognosticating global warming. "The findings acquired under DACCIWA is going to be moved with other monsoon regions and highly valuable for development policy," Professor Knippertz states.

Professor Knippertz coordinates the brand new interdisciplinary project DACCIWA (Dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa) that began on December 01, 2013 along with a amount of four . 5 years. The work is funded through the EU underneath the seventh Framework Programme with EUR 8.75 million. Of those funds, 1.88 million visit Package. 16 scientific institutions from Germany, Europe, France, The Uk, Ghana, Nigeria in addition to additional partners from Benin and also the Ivory Coast take part in DACCIWA. Among the German partners may be the German Aerospace Center (DLR). Activities will concentrate on the analysis from the interactions of aerosols and clouds.

Along with two other projects, DACCIWA comprises the ecu Research Cluster "Aerosols and Climate." The cluster began in December. Info on the study Cluster as well as on the kickoff event can be obtained at http://world wide web.aerosols-climate.org.

Connect to the report around the globe Bank: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Lower_the_warmth_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_prevented.pdf

View the original article here

Accuweather forecasts extreme cold winter for Chicago (Reuters)

(Reuters) – Private forecaster Accuweather.com said on Wednesday that heavy snow and extreme cold should be expected in the north central United States, especially in the Chicago area, in the coming winter.

The East Coast faces average to slightly above average snowfall during the winter of 2011-2012 as a Pacific La Nina again drives weather patterns across the United States.

"People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter," Accuweather Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg said in a statement.

Accuweather's forecast projects Chicago will again be hit by extreme cold weather and several blizzards, as it endured last winter when more than 50 inches fell on the city including a single storm that dropped 20 inches.

Severe cold and heavy snow should expected from the Great Lakes across the Midwest and northern plains states, according to Accuweather.

La Nina, the name for a recurring phenomenon when sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are below normal, will fuel weather across North America, including a persistent flow of tropical moisture that brings heavy rains to the West Coast called the "Pineapple Express."

The southeastern United States could again see flooding in the lower Mississippi Valley in late winter, Accuweather said.

Dry, mild weather is expected over most of the southwestern United States, with no relief seen for drought-stricken Texas.

The Mid-Atlantic states could see snow and ice with South Carolina and Georgia seeing rain. Florida should expect a mild, dry winter.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; Editing by Gary Hill)

View the original article here

Forecasts, TV and luck eased tornado risk in Okla. (AP)

By KRISTI EATON and CHUCK BARTELS, Associated Press Kristi Eaton And Chuck Bartels, Associated Press – Wed May 25, 9:36 pm ET

PIEDMONT, Okla. – When three tornadoes marched toward Oklahoma City and its suburbs, thousands of people in the path benefited from good forecasts, luck and live television to avoid the kind of catastrophe that befell Tuscaloosa, Ala., and Joplin, Mo.

Although at least 15 people died in the latest round of violent weather that started Tuesday, schools and offices closed early, giving many families plenty of time to take shelter. And even stragglers were able to get to safety at the last minute because TV forecasters narrated the twisters' every turn.

"We live in Oklahoma and we don't mess around," Lori Jenkins of Guthrie said after emerging from a neighbor's storm shelter to find her carport crumpled and her home damaged.

The people of Oklahoma City, which has been struck by more tornadoes than any other U.S. city, knew the storms were coming. Anxiety was perhaps running higher than usual Tuesday after last month's twister outbreak in the South that killed more than 300 people and a Sunday storm that killed at least 125 in Joplin, Mo.

The Oklahoma twisters proved to be weaker than the other tornadoes. But the minute-by-minute accounts of the developing weather helped thousands of people stay abreast of the danger.

Television helicopters broadcast live footage while the system approached the metropolitan area of 1.2 million people — calling out to specific communities like Piedmont to "Take cover now!"

In Guthrie, about 30 miles north of the capital city, Ron Brooks was watching when he learned that a tornado was barreling toward him. He heeded the weatherman's warning, scooped up his two children and took cover with his wife in their laundry room.

"When they told us to get into the shelter or interior room, we did that," Brooks said. "The first year I moved to Oklahoma, in 1997, I saw a funnel drop out of a wall cloud. Since seeing one, I've always taken it pretty seriously." He emerged 20 minutes later, relieved to learn that the tornado passed just north of his home.

Another line of severe storms swept through the nation's midsection Wednesday, mainly east of Oklahoma. A tornado warning was briefly issued for downtown Kansas City, Mo., and at least two weak tornadoes touched down in or near the suburbs.

A few others were reported in Illinois. The storms moved later into Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee.

In Joplin, the city manager said Wednesday that 125 people had died in the storm, raising by three the toll of the nation's deadliest single tornado since 1950. He said more than 900 people had been injured.

Rescue and recovery work continued, with crews repeating grid searches for any survivors who might still be buried in rubble. Structural engineers were sent inside the ruins of St. John's Medical Center, which was crippled by the twister, to see if the hospital could be saved.

Back in the Oklahoma City area, at least nine people were killed, despite broadcasters offering live coverage of the storms for two hours before the bad weather actually hit around the evening rush hour.

Across the border in Arkansas, people in the tiny hamlet of Denning didn't have the luxury of an early warning. A tornado killed at least one person there. Storms left three others dead elsewhere in Arkansas and killed two in Kansas.

The storms arrived in Denning in the darkness, with a warning posted only about 10 minutes before a tornado nearly obliterated the town of 270 shortly after midnight.

Troy Ellison didn't even have that much time.

He was watching a movie in his mobile home when he switched on the TV news. The tornado was four minutes away.

"We were going to take the work truck and get out," Ellison said. "I looked out the back door with my son and it was coming."

He dove under the kitchen table with his wife and two sons just before the tornado hit. "It got that growling sound and the windows popped," he said.

The tornado ripped the roof off his home and collapsed his workshop next door. Somehow, the family escaped unharmed.

Then Ellison went outside and saw the family dog, Jager, his paws splayed out on the ground. The animal "looked like someone stepped on him." Ellison assumed he was dead.

But the dog, a pit bull-boxer mix, turned out to be fine. By Wednesday, he was prancing around in the sun as the Ellisons moved belongings out of their home.

"He must have known to stay low to the ground," Ellison said.

Oklahoma City has been hit by tornadoes 146 times, according to the federal government's Storm Prediction Center. That history brings respect for severe storms and a simple rule for people who find themselves in a twister's path: Get out of the way or get underground.

"I think Oklahomans, simply because we're around it so much, take very seriously the threat of severe weather. It's something we live with year-round," said Michelann Ooten, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Emergency Management. "We have a genuine respect for the severe weather here."

Part of that comes from learning to deal with bad weather at a young age, Ooten said.

The long track of the storm in Piedmont gave Lynn Hartman's family time to take shelter and then run away. As warning sirens sounded, Hartman said, she huddled in the pantry of her Piedmont home with her two children and the family dog until her husband arrived home from work.

"We're there just crying and praying," Hartman said, and her daughter, Sierra, 10, was saying repeatedly, "I just don't want to die."

The family then decided to flee as the storm drew closer. They crossed the Oklahoma City area to Shawnee. Once there, sirens sounded again for a storm approaching from the south. The four drove around for three hours before returning to find their roof gone. The pantry was standing, but Hartman was not convinced the family would have survived.

Ooten said trying to outrun a tornado is dangerous.

"Find the sturdiest building you can gain access to," she said. "Unless you're an expert, I wouldn't try to outrun a tornado. You're not in charge. Mother Nature is the one in charge."

___

Bartels reported from Denning, Ark.

View the original article here