Small volcanic eruptions partly explain 'warming hiatus'

The "warming hiatus" that has occurred over the last 15 years has been caused in part by small volcanic eruptions.

Scientists have long known that volcanoes cool the atmosphere because of the sulfur dioxide that is expelled during eruptions. Droplets of sulfuric acid that form when the gas combines with oxygen in the upper atmosphere can persist for many months, reflecting sunlight away from Earth and lowering temperatures at the surface and in the lower atmosphere.

Previous research suggested that early 21st-century eruptions might explain up to a third of the recent warming hiatus.

New research available online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) further identifies observational climate signals caused by recent volcanic activity. This new research complements an earlier GRL paper published in November, which relied on a combination of ground, air and satellite measurements, indicating that a series of small 21st-century volcanic eruptions deflected substantially more solar radiation than previously estimated.

"This new work shows that the climate signals of late 20th- and early 21st-century volcanic activity can be detected in a variety of different observational data sets," said Benjamin Santer, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientist and lead author of the study.

The warmest year on record is 1998. After that, the steep climb in global surface temperatures observed over the 20th century appeared to level off. This "hiatus" received considerable attention, despite the fact that the full observational surface temperature record shows many instances of slowing and acceleration in warming rates. Scientists had previously suggested that factors such as weak solar activity and increased heat uptake by the oceans could be responsible for the recent lull in temperature increases. After publication of a 2011 paper in the journal Science by Susan Solomon of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (link is external) (MIT), it was recognized that an uptick in volcanic activity might also be implicated in the warming hiatus.

Prior to the 2011 Science paper, the prevailing scientific thinking was that only very large eruptions -- on the scale of the cataclysmic 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, which ejected an estimated 20 million metric tons (44 billion pounds) of sulfur -- were capable of impacting global climate. This conventional wisdom was largely based on climate model simulations. But according to David Ridley, an atmospheric scientist at MIT and lead author of the November GRL paper, these simulations were missing an important component of volcanic activity.

Ridley and colleagues found the missing piece of the puzzle at the intersection of two atmospheric layers, the stratosphere and the troposphere -- the lowest layer of the atmosphere, where all weather takes place. Those layers meet between 10 and 15 kilometers (six to nine miles) above Earth.

Satellite measurements of the sulfuric acid droplets and aerosols produced by erupting volcanoes are generally restricted to above 15 km. Below 15 km, cirrus clouds can interfere with satellite aerosol measurements. This means that toward the poles, where the lower stratosphere can reach down to 10 km, the satellite measurements miss a significant chunk of the total volcanic aerosol loading.

To get around this problem, the study by Ridley and colleagues combined observations from ground-, air- and space-based instruments to better observe aerosols in the lower portion of the stratosphere. They used these improved estimates of total volcanic aerosols in a simple climate model, and estimated that volcanoes may have caused cooling of 0.05 degrees to 0.12 degrees Celsius since 2000.

The second Livermore-led study shows that the signals of these late 20th and early 21st eruptions can be positively identified in atmospheric temperature, moisture and the reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. A vital step in detecting these volcanic signals is the removal of the "climate noise" caused by El Ni?os and La Ni?as.

"The fact that these volcanic signatures are apparent in multiple independently measured climate variables really supports the idea that they are influencing climate in spite of their moderate size," said Mark Zelinka, another Livermore author. "If we wish to accurately simulate recent climate change in models, we cannot neglect the ability of these smaller eruptions to reflect sunlight away from Earth."

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Temperature anomalies are warming faster than Earth's average, study finds

It's widely known that Earth's average temperature has been rising. But research by an Indiana University geographer and colleagues finds that spatial patterns of extreme temperature anomalies -- readings well above or below the mean -- are warming even faster than the overall average.

And trends in extreme heat and cold are important, said Scott M. Robeson, professor of geography in the College of Arts and Sciences at IU Bloomington. They have an outsized impact on water supplies, agricultural productivity and other factors related to human health and well-being.

"Average temperatures don't tell us everything we need to know about climate change," he said. "Arguably, these cold extremes and warm extremes are the most important factors for human society."

Robeson is the lead author of the article "Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies," which will be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and is available online. Co-authors are Cort J. Willmott of the University of Delaware and Phil D. Jones of the University of East Anglia.

The researchers analyzed temperature records for the years 1881 to 2013 from HadCRUT4, a widely used data set for land and sea locations compiled by the University of East Anglia and the U.K. Met Office. Using monthly average temperatures at points across the globe, they sorted them into "spatial percentiles," which represent how unusual they are by their geographic size.

Their findings include:

Temperatures at the cold and warm "tails" of the spatial distribution -- the 5th and 95th percentiles -- increased more than the overall average Earth temperature.Over the 130-year record, cold anomalies increased more than warm anomalies, resulting in an overall narrowing of the range of Earth's temperatures.In the past 30 years, however, that pattern reversed, with warm anomalies increasing at a faster rate than cold anomalies. "Earth's temperature was becoming more homogenous with time," Robeson said, "but now it's not."

The study records separate results for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Temperatures are considerably more volatile in the Northern Hemisphere, an expected result because there's considerably less land mass in the South to add complexity to weather systems.

The study also examined anomalies during the "pause" in global warming that scientists have observed since 1998. While a 16-year-period is too short a time to draw conclusions about trends, the researchers found that warming continued at most locations on the planet and during much of the year, but that warming was offset by strong cooling during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.

"There really hasn't been a pause in global warming," Robeson said. "There's been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming."

Co-author Jones of the University of East Anglia said the study provides scientists with better knowledge about what's taking place with Earth's climate. "Improved understanding of the spatial patterns of change over the three periods studied are vital for understanding the causes of recent events," he said.

It may seem counterintuitive that global warming would be accompanied by colder winter weather at some locales. But Robeson said the observation aligns with theories about climate change, which hold that amplified warming in the Arctic region produces changes in the jet stream, which can result in extended periods of cold weather at some locations in the mid-northern latitudes.

And while the rate of planetary warming has slowed in the past 16 years, it hasn't stopped. The World Meteorological Organization announced this month that 2014 is on track to be one of the warmest, if not the warmest, years on record as measured by global average temperatures.

In the U.S., the East has been unusually cold and snowy in recent years, but much of the West has been unusually warm and has experienced drought. And what happens here doesn't necessarily reflect conditions on the rest of the planet. Robeson points out that the United States, including Alaska, makes up only 2 percent of Earth's surface.

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Global warming will not reduce deaths in the winter months, British study concludes

New information released today finds that global warming is not likely to lessen britain's excess winter dying rate as formerly thought. The research is released within the journal Character Global Warming and debunks the broadly held view that warmer winters will cut the amount of deaths normally seen in the very coldest season.

Examining data in the past six decades, scientists in the College of Exeter and College College London (UCL) checked out the way the winter dying rate has transformed with time, and just what factors affected it.

They discovered that from 1951 to 1971, the amount of cold winter days was strongly associated with dying rates, while from 1971 to 1991, both the amount of cold days and flu activity were accountable for elevated dying rates. However, their analysis demonstrated that from 1991 to 2011, flu activity alone was the primary cause in year upon year variation in the winter months mortality.

Lead investigator Dr Philip Staddon stated "We have proven that the amount of cold days inside a winter no more describes its quantity of excess deaths. Rather, the primary reason for year upon year variation in the winter months mortality in recent decades continues to be flu."

They claim that this reduced outcomes of the amount of cold days and deaths inside a winter could be described by enhancements in housing, healthcare, earnings along with a greater understanding of the potential risks from the cold.

As global warming progresses, the United kingdom will probably experience growing weather extremes, including more less foreseeable periods of utmost cold. The study highlights that, despite a generally warmer winter, a far more volatile climate could really result in elevated amounts of winter deaths connected with global warming, instead of less.

Dr Staddon thinks the findings have important implications for policy:

"Both policy makers and health care professionals have, for a while, assumed that the potential take advantage of global warming is a decrease in deaths seen over winter. We have proven this is not likely to be. Efforts to combat winter mortality because of cold spells shouldn't be lessened, and individuals against flu and flu-like ailments ought to be maintained."

Co-author, Prof Hugh Montgomery of UCL stated:

"Global warming seems unlikely to reduce winter dying rates. Indeed, it might substantially increase them by driving extreme weather occasions and greater variation in the winter months temps. Action must automatically get to prevent this happening."

Co-author, Prof Michael Depledge of College of Exeter School Of Medicine stated:

"Studies from the kind we've carried out provide information that's key for policymakers and political figures planning to handle the impacts of global warming. We are hopeful that the significance of this problem is going to be understood, to ensure that matters of health insurance and environment security could be worked with seriously and effectively."

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Connecting storms to global warming a 'distraction', say experts

Hooking up extreme weather to global warming throws from the necessity to safeguard society from high-impact weather occasions which continuously happen regardless of human-caused global warming, say experts.

Writing within the journal Weather, Climate and Society, the College of Manchester scientists reason that cutting green house gas pollutants, while essential to reducing humanity's longer-term impact in the world, won't eliminate violent storms, tornadoes or flooding and also the damage they cause.

The authors claim that developing greater resilience to extreme weather occasions should be given greater priority when the socioeconomic impact of storms, like individuals which have ravaged Britain this winter, will be reduced.

Professor David Schultz, among the authors from the guest editorial, stated: "Among the lengthy-term results of global warming is frequently predicted to become a rise in the intensity and frequency of numerous high-impact weather occasions, so reducing green house gas pollutants is frequently seen is the reaction to the issue.

"Reducing humanity's effect on our world ought to be went after ought to be emergency, but more emphasis should also go on being resilient to individual weather occasions, because this year's storms in great britan have so devastatingly proven."

Previously, the authors, society taken care of immediately weather problems with requires greater resilience, but awareness of humanmade global warming has provided climate timescales (decades and centuries) much better importance than weather timescales (days and years)

Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology, and co-author Dr Vladimir Jankovic, a science historian specialising in climate and weather, the short-term, large variability from year upon year in high-impact weather causes it to be difficult, otherwise impossible, to attract conclusions concerning the correlation to longer-term global warming.

They reason that while large public opportunities in dams and ton defences, for instance, must take into account the options of methods weather might change later on, this will not prevent short-term thinking to deal with more immediate vulnerability to inevitable high-impact weather occasions.

"Staying away from construction in floodplains, applying strong building codes, and growing readiness could make society more resilient to extreme weather occasions," stated Dr Jankovic. "But adding to however , finding money for recovery is simpler than investing on prevention, even when the expense of recovery tend to be greater."

This prejudice, the authors, includes a inclination to decrease the political dedication for preventative measures against extreme weather, no matter whether or not they are triggered or intensified by humanmade influences. Yet, steps come to safeguard society in the weather can safeguard the earth too, they argue.

Dr Jankovic stated: "Enhancing predicting, growing readiness or building better infrastructure can increase resilience and lower carbon-dioxide pollutants. For instance, greening communities or painting roofs lighter colours will both lessen the urban warmth-island effect and lower carbon-dioxide pollutants through reduced air-conditioning costs, while making metropolitan areas more resistant against storm damage would cut back pollutants produced from repairing devastated areas."

Professor Schultz added: "Connecting high-impact weather occasions with global warming could be annoying perpetuating the concept that reducing green house gases could be enough to lessen progressively vulnerable world populations, in our opinion, only atmosphere the general public and policy-makers regarding the socio-economic inclination towards extreme weather.

"Without or with minimization, there's no quick-fix, single-cause solution for that problem of human vulnerability to socio-environment change, nor what is the reasonable prospect of attenuating high-impact weather. Addressing such issues will give the planet an chance to build up a 2-pronged policy in climate security, reducing longer-term climate risks along with stopping shorter-term weather problems."

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Off-shore trade winds stall global surface warming ... for the time being

The most powerful trade winds have driven a lot of warmth from climatic change in to the oceans. However when individuals winds slow, that warmth will quickly go back to the climate leading to a rapid increase in global average temps, scientists report.

Warmth saved within the western Gulf Of Mexico triggered by an unparalleled strengthening from the equatorial trade winds seems to become largely accountable for the hiatus in surface warming observed in the last 13 years.

New information released today within the journal Character Global Warming signifies the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation from the Gulf Of Mexico, leading to more warmth to become removed from the atmosphere and moved in to the subsurface sea, while getting cooler waters towards the surface.

"Researchers have lengthy suspected that extra sea warmth uptake has slowed down an upswing of worldwide average temps, however the mechanism behind the hiatus continued to be unclear" stated Professor Matthew England, lead author from the study along with a Chief Investigator in the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science.

"However the warmth uptake is in no way permanent: once the trade wind strength returns to normalcy -- because it inevitably will -- our research indicates warmth will rapidly accumulate within the atmosphere. So global temps look set to increase quickly from the hiatus, coming back towards the levels forecasted within less than ten years.Inch

The strengthening from the Off-shore trade winds started throughout the the nineteen nineties and continues today. Formerly, no climate designs include incorporated a trade wind strengthening from the magnitude observed, which models unsuccessful to capture the hiatus in warming. When the trade winds were added through the scientists, the worldwide average temps very carefully was similar to the findings throughout the hiatus.

"The winds result in extra sea warmth uptake, which delayed warming from the atmosphere. Comprising this wind intensification in model forecasts creates a hiatus in climatic change that's in striking agreement with findings," Prof England stated.

"Regrettably, however, once the hiatus finishes, climatic change looks set to become rapid."

The outcome from the trade winds on global average temps is triggered through the winds forcing warmth to amass below top of the Western Gulf Of Mexico.

"This moving of warmth in to the sea is not so deep, however, and when the winds abate, warmth is came back quickly towards the atmosphere" England describes.

"Climate researchers have lengthy understood that global average temps don't increase in a continuous upward trajectory, rather warming in a number of abrupt stages in between periods with increased-or-less steady temps. Our work helps let you know that this happens," stated Prof England.

"You should be very obvious: the present hiatus offers no comfort -- we're just seeing another pause in warming prior to the next inevitable increase in global temps."

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Over demanding market affects fisheries greater than global warming

Fisheries that depend on short existence species, for example shrimp or sardine, happen to be more impacted by global warming, as this phenomenon affects chlorophyll production, that is vital for phytoplankton, the primary food for species.

Revealed through the research "Socioeconomic Impact from the global change within the fishing assets from the Mexican Off-shore" headed by Ernesto A. Ch?vez Ortiz, in the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN).

Work carried out in the Interdisciplinary Center of Marine Sciences (CICIMAR) in the IPN, signifies that within the last 5 years there has been no "spectacular" changes due to global warming, what's affected the fishing assets more may be the over demanding market.

"Globally, an excellent area of the fishing assets has been used to the maximum capacity, several have overpass its regrowth capabilities and therefore are overexploited" Ch?vez Ortiz highlights.

The specialist at CICIMAR particulars the research comprised in exploratory weather and fisheries analysis, and confirmed what's been without effort stated for some time: many of the variability within the fishing is because of global warming, however , evidence had not been found to prove it.

"Within the research we found a obvious and objective method to show it: we required historic data from FAO regarding fisheries, available since 1950, in comparison it towards the data of weather variability and located high correlations.

Change designs were recognized, for instance, whilst in the 70's the sardine production increases, within the eighties it decreases substandard levels, meanwhile shrimp fishing elevated excellent but decreased within the 90's.

By doing this, climate changes were recognized within the mid 70's and late eighties that affected the fishing of sardine and shrimp within the Mexican Gulf Of Mexico, possibly due to El Ni?o. Within the particular situation from the shrimp, it effects are based on a port water in the region for instance, when there is a good pouring down rain season, you will see a rise in the crustacean production, that is reduced if this does not rain.

The investigator at CICIMAR clarifies the research into the fisheries, examined within the recommendations of the project, used of the simulation model that enables to judge optimal exploitation methods, possible alternation in the biomass from the examined assets, along with the long-term results of global warming, like cyclones, and hang them apart of individuals triggered through the concentration of the fishing.

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Finding mutual understanding fosters knowledge of global warming

Grasping the idea of global warming and it is effect on the atmosphere can be challenging. Creating mutual understanding and taking advantage of models, however, can break lower obstacles and offer the idea within an easily understood manner.

Inside a presentation only at that year's meeting from the American Association for that Growth of Science, Michigan Condition College systems ecologist and modeler Laura Schmitt-Olabisi shows how system dynamics models effectively communicate the difficulties and implications of global warming.

"To be able to face the continuing challenges resulting from climate adaptation, there's an excuse for tools that may promote dialogue across traditional limitations, for example individuals between researchers, everyone and decision makers," Schmitt-Olabisi stated. "Using boundary objects, for example maps, diagrams and models, all groups involved may use these objects to possess a discussion to produce possible solutions."

Schmitt-Olabisi has huge experience working directly with stakeholders using participatory model-building techniques. She utilizes a type of a hypothetical warmth wave in Detroit as one example of the implications of global warming.

Global warming is predicted to improve the regularity and concentration of prolonged high temperatures within the Area, that could potentially claim 100s or 1000's of lives. Warm weather kills more and more people within the U . s . States yearly than any other kind of natural disaster, and also the impacts of warmth on human health is a major global warming adaptation challenge.

To higher understand urban health systems and just how they react to prolonged high temperatures, Schmitt-Olabisi's team questioned urban organizers, health authorities and emergency managers. They converted individuals interviews right into a computer model together with data from earlier Midwestern prolonged high temperatures.

Participants can manipulate the model watching how their changes modify the results of an urgent situation. The exercise revealed some important restrictions of previous methods to reducing deaths and hospitalizations triggered by extreme warmth.

"The model challenges some broadly held presumptions, like the thought that opening more cooling centers is the greatest solution," Schmitt-Olabisi stated. "Because it works out, these centers are useless if individuals don't know they ought to visit them."

More to the point, the model supplies a tool, a language that everybody can understand. It's an optimistic illustration of how system dynamics models might be used as boundary objects to adjust to global warming, she added.

Overall, Schmitt-Olabisi finds this approach is really a effective tool for lighting trouble spots as well as for determining the how to help vulnerable populations. Future research will concentrate on enhancing the models' precision in addition to growing it past the Area.

"To ensure that the models to become used to enhance decision-making, more work will require be achieved to guarantee the model answers are realistic," Schmitt-Olabisi stated.

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Arctic melt season lengthening, sea quickly warming

The size of the melt season for Arctic ocean ice keeps growing by a number of days each decade, as well as an earlier begin to the melt months are permitting the Arctic Sea to soak up enough additional photo voltaic radiation occasionally to melt around four ft from the Arctic ice cap's thickness, according to a different study by National Ice and snow Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA scientists.

Arctic ocean ice has been around sharp decline throughout the final 40 years. The ocean ice cover is diminishing and loss, making researchers think an ice-free Arctic Sea throughout the summer time may be arrived at this century. The seven cheapest September ocean ice extents within the satellite record have happened previously seven years.

"The Arctic is warming which is leading to the melt season to keep going longer,Inch stated Julienne Stroeve, a senior researcher at NSIDC, Boulder and lead author from the new study, that has been recognized for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. "The lengthening from the melt months are permitting for a lot of sun's energy to obtain saved within the sea while increasing ice melt throughout the summer time, overall weakening the ocean ice cover."

To review the evolution of ocean ice melt onset and freeze-up dates from 1979 to the current day, Stroeve's team used passive microwave data from NASA's Nimbus-7 Checking Multichannel Microwave Radiometer, and also the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and also the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder transported onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft.

When snow and ice start to melt, the existence of water causes spikes within the microwave radiation the snow grains emit, which these sensors can identify. When the melt months are entirely pressure, the microwave emissivity from the snow and ice balances, also it does not change again before the start of the freezing season causes another group of spikes. Researchers can appraise the alterations in the ice's microwave emissivity utilizing a formula produced by Thorsten Markus, co-author from the paper and chief from the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Results reveal that even though the melt months are lengthening at both finishes, by having an earlier melt onset early in the year along with a later freeze-in the autumn, the predominant phenomenon stretching the melting may be the later start of freeze season. Some areas, like the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, are freezing between six and 11 days later per decade. But while melt onset versions are more compact, the timing of the start of the melt season includes a bigger effect on the quantity of photo voltaic radiation absorbed through the sea, because its timing coincides with once the sun is greater and better within the Arctic sky.

Despite large regional versions at first and finish from the melt season, the Arctic melt season has extended normally by 5 days per decade from 1979 to 2013.

Still, weather helps make the timing from the fall freeze-up vary so much from year upon year.

"There's a trend later on freeze-up, but we can not tell whether a specific year will have an early on or later freeze-up," Stroeve stated. "There remains lots of variability from year upon year regarding the exact timing of once the ice will reform, which makes it hard for industry to organize when you should stop procedures within the Arctic."

To determine alterations in the quantity of solar power absorbed through the ice and sea, the scientists checked out the evolution of ocean surface temps and analyzed monthly surface albedo data (the quantity of solar power reflected through the ice and also the sea) along with the incoming photo voltaic radiation for that several weeks of May through October. The albedo and ocean surface temperature data the scientists used originates from the nation's Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's polar-revolving about satellites.

They discovered that the ice pack and sea waters are absorbing increasingly more sunlight due both for an earlier opening from the waters along with a darkening from the ocean ice. The ocean ice cover has become less reflective since it now mostly includes thinner, more youthful ice, that is less reflective compared to older ice that formerly centered the ice pack. Also, the youthful ice is flatter, permitting the dark melt ponds that form in the initial phases from the melt season can spread more broadly, further lowering its albedo.

The scientists calculated the rise in photo voltaic radiation absorbed through the ice and sea for that period varying from 2007 to 2011, which in certain regions of the Arctic Sea exceed 300 to 400 megajoules per square meter, or the quantity of energy required to thin the ice by yet another 3.1 to 4.2 ft (97 to 130 centimeters).

The increases in surface sea temps, coupled with a warming Arctic atmosphere because of global warming, explain the postponed freeze in the autumn.

"If air and sea temps offer a similar experience, the sea won't lose warmth towards the atmosphere as quickly as it might once the variations are greater," stated Linette Boisvert, co-author from the paper along with a cryospheric researcher at Goddard. "Within the last years, top of the sea warmth submissions are much greater than it was once, so it takes a longer period to awesome off as well as for freeze as much as begin."

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Southeast England most vulnerable to rising deaths because of global warming

Warmer summer season triggered by global warming may cause more deaths working in london and southeast England compared to relaxation of the nation, researchers predict.

Scientists at Imperial College London checked out temperature records and mortality figures for 2001 to 2010 to discover which districts in Britain go through the greatest effects from warm temps.

Within the most vulnerable districts, working in london and also the southeast, the chances of dying from cardiovascular or respiratory system causes elevated by over 10 percent for each 1C increase in temperature. Districts within the far north were a lot more resilient, seeing no rise in deaths at equivalent temps.

Writing in Character Global Warming, the scientists say local versions in global warming vulnerability should be taken into consideration when assessing the potential risks and selecting policy reactions.

Dr James Bennett, charge author from the study on the MRC-PHE Center for Atmosphere and Health at Imperial College London, stated: “It’s well-known that the sunshine can increase the chance of cardiovascular and respiratory system deaths, particularly in seniors people. Global warming is anticipated to boost average temps while increasing temperature variability, so don't be surprised it to possess effects on mortality even just in nations such as the United kingdom having a temperate climate.”

Across Britain in general, a summer time that's 2C warmer than average could be likely to cause around 1,550 extra deaths, the research found. Approximately half could be in people aged over 85, and 62 percent could be in females. The additional deaths could be distributed unevenly, with 95 from 376 districts comprising 1 / 2 of all deaths.

The results of warm temperature were similar in urban and rural districts. Probably the most vulnerable districts incorporated deprived districts working in london for example Hackney and Tower Hamlets, using the likelihood of dying greater than doubling on hot days like individuals of August 2003.

“The causes of the uneven distribution of deaths in the sunshine have to be analyzed,” stated Professor Majid Ezzati, in the School of Public Health at Imperial, who brought the study. “It may be because of more susceptible people being concentrated in certain areas, or it may be associated with variations in the community level, like quality of health care, that need government action.

“We might expect that individuals in areas that are usually warmer could be more resilient, simply because they adapt by setting up ac for instance. These results reveal that this isn’t the situation in Britain.

“While global warming is really a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to the effects are highly local. A lot of things can be achieved in the local level to lessen the outcome of warm spells, like notifying the general public and planning emergency services. More information about which towns are most in danger from high temps will help inform these methods.”

The scientists received funding in the Scientific Research Council, Public Health England, and also the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Center.

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Global warming could increase thunderstorm severity, climatologist forecasts

This spring might be a lot more like a lion than the usual lamb. John Harrington Junior. is really a synoptic climatologist and professor of geography at Kansas Condition College who studies weather occasions, how frequently they occur and also the conditions once they happened. He states global warming might be growing the seriousness of storms.

"Among the large concerns I've would be that the warmer atmospheric temps will drive a bit more evaporation from the sea and also the Gulf," Harrington stated. "One thing that can help storms be more powerful is getting more moisture, to ensure that added moisture could raise the height and harshness of a tall cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud."

Harrington stated the additional moisture will make storms more powerful and much more potent later on.

This season might also bring a general change in climate conditions because of El Ni?o, that the U . s . States hasn’t experienced for around 2 yrs. El Ni?o warms up the temperature from the Gulf Of Mexico, which produces cooler and wetter conditions for that West Coast. Harrington states there's a great possibility El Ni?o will arrive this fall entering winter.

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Global warming puts wheat crops vulnerable to disease

There's a danger that harshness of outbreaks of some wheat illnesses may increase over the following ten to two decades because of the impacts of global warming based on research by worldwide scientists brought through the College of Hertfordshire.

The scientists completed market research in China to determine a hyperlink between weather and the seriousness of outbreaks of fusarium ear blight around the wheat crops. This weather-based model ended up being accustomed to predict the outcome on harshness of the condition of future weather situations for that period from 2020 to 2050.

Professor Bruce Fitt, professor of plant pathology in the College of Hertfordshire's School of Medical and Existence Sciences, stated: "There's considerable debate concerning the impact of global warming on crop production -- and ensuring we've sufficient food to give the ever-growing global human population is answer to our future food security."

Wheat, among the world's most significant crops for human food, is milled to be used in bread, breakfast cereal products, cakes, pizzas, confectionery, sauces and lots of other food products. Fusarium ear blight is really a serious disease affecting wheat across many areas around the globe. Throughout severe outbreaks, wheat crop deficits is often as almost as much ast 60 percent. These deficits may become bigger as, under certain conditions, the fusarium virus produces toxic chemicals referred to as mycotoxins. The amount of mycotoxins contained in the grain may render it unacceptable for either human or animal consumption -- the mycotoxin safe levels being controlled by legislation.

Professor Fitt ongoing: "We all know the weather plays a large part in the introduction of the condition around the wheat crops -- the incidence from the disease is dependent upon temperature and the appearance of wet weather in the flowering or anthesis from the wheat crops."

Once the weather-based model developed at Rothamsted Research was utilized to calculate how global warming may modify the wheat crops, it had been predicted that wheat flowering dates will normally be earlier and also the incidence from the ear blight disease around the wheat crops will substantially increase.

The study indicates that global warming will raise the chance of serious ear blight outbreaks on winter wheat in Central China by the center of this century (2020-2050).

Similar conclusions were arrived at about impacts of global warming on wheat within the United kingdom, where global warming models are predicting warmer, wetter winters for that country. This indicates the United kingdom too are affected a larger incidence of fusarium ear blight on wheat crops -- greatly affecting our greatest staple crops.

Inside a world where several billion people don't have sufficient to consume, and our future food security is threatened by global warming as well as an ever-growing population, it is important to enhance the charge of crop illnesses like fusarium ear blight around the world.

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Warming climate may spread drying out to some third of earth: Warmth, not only rain fall, plays into new forecasts

Growing warmth is anticipated to increase dry conditions to much more farmland and metropolitan areas through the finish from the century than alterations in rain fall alone, states new research. A lot of the priority about future drought under climatic change has centered on rain fall forecasts, but greater evaporation rates might also play a huge role as warmer temps wring more moisture in the soil, even occasionally where rain fall is forecasted to improve, the scientists.

The research is among the first to make use of the most recent climate simulations to model the results of both altering rain fall and evaporation rates on future drought. Released this month within the journal Climate Dynamics, the research estimations that 12 % of land is going to be susceptible to drought by 2100 through rain fall changes alone however the drying out will spread to 30 % of land if greater evaporation rates in the added energy and humidity within the atmosphere is recognized as. A rise in evaporative drying out implies that even regions expected to obtain more rain, including important wheat, corn and grain devices within the western U . s . States and southeastern China, is going to be vulnerable to drought. The research excludes Antarctica.

"We all know from fundamental physics that warmer temps will assist you to dry things out," stated the study's lead author, Benjamin Prepare, an environment researcher with joint visits at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and also the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "Even when precipitation changes later on are uncertain, you will find top reasons to stress about water assets."

In the latest climate report, the Worldwide Panel on Global Warming (IPCC) alerts that soil moisture is anticipated to say no globally which already dry regions is going to be at and the higher chances of farming drought. The IPCC also forecasts a powerful possibility of soil moisture drying out within the Mediterranean, north western U . s . States and southern African regions, in conjuction with the Climate Dynamics study.

Using two drought metric formulations, the research authors evaluate forecasts of both rain fall and evaporative demand in the assortment of climate model simulations completed for that IPCC's 2013 climate report. Both metrics agree that elevated evaporative drying out will most likely tip marginally wet regions at mid-latitudes such as the U.S. Great Flatlands along with a swath of southeastern China into aridity. If precipitation were the only real consideration, these great farming centers wouldn't be considered vulnerable to drought. The scientists also state that dry zones in Guatemala, the Amazon . com and southern Africa will grow bigger. In Europe, the summer time aridity of A holiday in greece, Poultry, Italia and The country is anticipated to increase farther north into continental Europe.

"For agriculture, the moisture balance within the soil is exactly what really matters," stated study coauthor Jason Smerdon, an environment researcher at Lamont-Doherty. "If rain increases slightly but temps may also increase, drought is really a potential consequence."

Today, while rainwater periodically reduces crop yields occasionally, other regions are usually in a position to compensate to avert food shortages. Within the warmer weather for the future, however, crops in multiple regions could wither concurrently, the authors suggest. "Food-cost shocks turn into much more common," stated study coauthor Richard Seager, an environment researcher at Lamont-Doherty. Large metropolitan areas, particularly in arid regions, will have to carefully manage their water supplies, he added.

The research develops a growing body of research searching at just how evaporative demand influences hydroclimate. "It verifies something we have suspected for any very long time," stated Toby Ault, an environment researcher at Cornell College, who had been not active in the study. "Temperature alone could make drought more common. Studies such as this provide us with a couple of new effective tools to organize for and adjust to global warming."

Rain fall changes don't tell the entire story, concurs College of Nsw investigator Steven Sherwood, inside a recent Perspectives piece within the leading journal Science. "Many regions can get more rain, however it seems that couple of can get enough to help keep pace using the growing evaporative demand."

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Extreme weather triggered by global warming decides distribution of bugs, study shows

As global warming is advancing, the temperature in our planet increases. Many of the essential for the big number of creatures which are cold-blooded (ectothermic), including bugs. Their body's temperature is ultimately based on the ambient temperature, and also the same therefore is applicable towards the efficiency and speed of the vital biological processes.

But could it be alterations in climate or frequency of utmost temperature problems that possess the finest effect on species distribution? It was the questions that several Danish and Australian scientists made the decision to look at in many insect species.

Johannes Overgaard, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus College, Denmark, Michael R. Kearney and Ary A. Hoffmann, Melbourne College, Australia, lately released the outcomes of those studies within the journal Global Change Biology. The outcomes demonstrate that it's particularly the extreme temperature occasions that comprise the distribution of both tropical and temperate species. Thus global warming affects ectotermic creatures mainly because more periods of utmost weather are required later on.

Fruit flies were patterned

The scientists examined 10 fruit fly types of the genus Drosophila modified to tropical and temperate parts of Australia. First they examined the temps that the species can sustain growth and reproduction, and they found the limitations of tolerance for cold and hot temps.

"This is actually the very first time ever where we've been in a position to compare the results of extremes and alterations in average conditions inside a rigorous manner across several species," mentions Ary Hoffmann.

According to this understanding and understanding from the present distribution from the 10 species then they examined if distribution was correlated towards the temps needed for growth and reproduction in other words restricted to their ability to tolerate extreme temperature conditions.

"The solution was unambiguous: it's the species' ability to tolerate very hot or cold days that comprise their present distribution," states Johannes Overgaard.

Therefore, it is the ultimate weather occasions, for example prolonged high temperatures or very cold weather, that amounted to the bugs their existence, not a rise in climate.

Drastic changes available

With this particular information in hands, the scientists could then model how distributions are required to alter if global warming continues for the following a century.

Most terrestrial creatures experience temperature variation on daily and periodic time scale, and they're modified to those conditions. Thus, for any species to keep its existence under different temperature conditions you will find two simple conditions that must definitely be met. First of all, the temperature should from time to time be so that the species can grow and reproduce, and next, the temperature must not be so extreme the population's survival is threatened.

In temperate climate for instance, you will find many species that are modified to pass through low temps during the cold months, after which grow and reproduce within the summer time. In warmer environments, the task might be quite contrary. Here, the species might endure high temps throughout the dry hot summer time, while growth and reproduction mainly happens throughout the mild and wet winter period.

The end result was discouraging for those 10 species.

"Global warming can lead to less cold days or weeks, and therefore allow species to maneuver toward greater latitudes. However global warming also results in a greater incidence to very hot days and our model therefore forecasts the distribution of those species will disappear to under half their present distribution"states Johannes Overgaard.

"Actually, our forecasts are that some species would disappear entirely within the next couple of decades, even whether they have a reasonably wide distribution that presently covers 100s of kilometers," adds Ary Hoffmann.

"Although no 10 species analyzed are usually regarded as either dangerous or advantageous microorganisms for human society, the outcomes indicate that distribution of numerous insect species is going to be transformed significantly, and it'll most likely also affect most of the species which have particular social or commercial importance ," finishes Johannes Overgaard.

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Global warming will improve survival rates of British bird -- the lengthy-tailed tit

Global warming might be not so good news for billions, but researchers in the College of Sheffield have found one unlikely champion -- a small British bird, the lengthy-tailed tit.

Like other small creatures living for just 2 or 3 years, these wild birds had so far been considered to die in large amounts throughout cold winters. But new information indicates that the sunshine throughout spring rather supports the answer to their survival.

The findings originate from a 20-year study of lengthy-tailed tits operated by Professor Ben Hatchwell in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences. The current jobs are brought by PhD student Philippa Gullett and Dr Karl Evans from Sheffield, together with Take advantage of Robinson in the British Trust for Ornithology.

"Throughout spring, wild birds must work their socks off and away to raise their chicks," stated Philippa Gullett.

"For many small wild birds living for just 2 or 3 years, not raising any chicks twelve months is really a disaster. They may only acquire one more chance, so that they can not afford to fail."

No real surprise then these wild birds are prepared to invest everything and risk dying whether it means their youthful survive. The surprise is the fact that weather helps to make the difference. The study learned that wild birds attempting to breed in dry and warm springs cash good chances of making it through to another year -- a singular result that counters common presumptions about the reason for dying for small wild birds.

"What appears to become happening would be that the tits attempt to raise their chicks no matter what,Inch added Ms Gullett.

"Whether it's winter in spring, which makes their job much harder. Meals are harder to locate eggs and chicks are vulnerable to getting cold. As a result through the finish from the breeding season, the adult wild birds are exhausted."

The research found no real aftereffect of winter months recently on adult survival, however winter autumns were connected having a greater dying rate.

"We are not to imply that wild birds never die in the winter months -- in harsh years you will find certain to be some deaths," described Dr Karl Evans.

"However, it appears that in many years fall weather plays a larger role, possibly serving as a filter that weeds out less strong wild birds prior to the real winter hits."

Although autumns could get wetter in in the future, any rise in mortality will probably be offset by the advantages of warmer breeding seasons, when more benign conditions lessen the costs of breeding.

Dr Evans added: "Searching ahead towards the future, our data indicates that each single plausible global warming scenario can result in an additional rise in lengthy-tailed survival rates. Even though many species struggle to sit in global warming, these wonderful wild birds appear apt to be those who win."

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Deaths credited straight to global warming cast pall over penguins

Global warming is killing penguin chicks in the world's biggest colony of Magellanic penguins, not only not directly -- by depriving them of food, as continues to be frequently recorded of these along with other seabirds -- but directly consequently of drenching rainstorms and, at in other cases, warmth, based on new findings in the College of Washington.

Too large for moms and dads to sit down over protectively, but nonetheless too youthful to possess grown waterproof down, downy penguin chicks uncovered to drenching rain can struggle and die of hypothermia regardless of the very best efforts of the concerned parents. And throughout extreme warmth, chicks without waterproofing can't have a dip in cooling waters as grown ups can.

Various research groups have released findings around the reproductive consequences from single storms or prolonged high temperatures, occasions that individually are impossible to tie to global warming. The brand new results span 27 many years of data collected in Argentina underneath the direction of Dee Boersma, UW biology professor, using the support from the Wildlife Conservation Society, the UW, work of Turismo in Argentina's Chubut Province, the worldwide Penguin Society and also the La Regina family. Boersma is lead author of the paper around the findings within the Jan. 29 problem of PLOS ONE.

"It is the first lengthy-term study to exhibit global warming getting a significant effect on chick survival and reproductive success," stated Boersma, that has brought area work since 1983 in the world's biggest breeding position for Magellanic penguins, about midway in the Chesapeake bay of Argentina at Punta Tombo, where 200,000 pairs reside from September through Feb to obtain their youthful.

Throughout a length of 27 years, typically 65 % of chicks died each year, with a few 40 % depriving. Global warming, a comparatively new reason for chick dying, wiped out typically 7 percent of chicks each year, but there have been years if this was the most typical reason for dying, killing 43 percent of chicks twelve months and fully half in another.

Starvation and weather will probably interact progressively as climate changes, Boersma stated.

"Depriving chicks may die inside a storm," she stated. "There might not be much we are able to do in order to mitigate global warming, but steps could automatically get to make certain our planet's biggest colony of Magellanic penguins have sufficient to consume by developing a marine protected reserve, with rules on fishing, where penguins forage while raising small chicks."

Rain fall and the amount of storms per breeding season have previously elevated in the Argentine study site, stated Ginger root Rebstock, UW research researcher and also the co-author from the paper. For example within the first couple of days of December, when all chicks are under 25 days old and many susceptible to storm dying, the amount of storms elevated between 1983 and 2010.

"We are likely to see years where very little chicks survive if global warming makes storms bigger and much more frequent throughout vulnerable occasions from the breeding season as climatologists predict," Rebstock stated.

Magellanics are medium-sized penguins standing about 15 inches tall and weighing about ten pounds. Males from the species seem like braying donkeys once they vocalize. From the Earth's 17 types of penguins, 10 -- including Magellanics -- breed where there's no snow, it's relatively dry and temps could be temperate.

Punta Tombo is really arid it will get typically only 4 inches (100 mm) of rain throughout the six-month breeding season and, sometimes, no rain falls whatsoever. Rain is a concern and kills lower-covered chicks age range 9 to 23 days when they can't warm-up and dry out after heavy storms in November and December when temps will probably dip. If chicks can live 25 days or even more, they have enough juvenile plumage to safeguard them. Once chicks die, parents don't lay additional eggs that season.

The findings derive from weather information, collected in the regional airport terminal by scientists within the area, in addition to from penguin counts. Throughout the breeding season scientists visit nests a couple of times each day to determine what's happening and record the items in the nest, frequently looking for chicks once they move about as they age. When chicks disappear or are located dead, the scientists become detectives searching for proof of starvation, potential predators or any other reasons for dying for example being pecked or beaten by other penguins.

Just away from two several weeks within the area, Boersma stated warmth this year required a larger toll on chicks than storms. Such variability between years is why the amount of chicks dying from global warming isn't a tidy, ever-growing figure every year. With time, however, the scientists expect global warming is going to be an progressively important reason for dying.

Also adding to growing deaths from global warming is always that, over 27 years, penguin parents have showed up towards the breeding site later and then around, most likely since the seafood they eat are also coming later, Boersma stated. The later around chicks hatch the much more likely they'll be within their lower-covered stage when storms typically get in November and December.

Aside from the coast of Argentina, Magellanic penguins also breed around the Chile-side of South Usa as well as in the Falkand (Malvinas) Islands, breeding ranges they tell some 60 other seabird species. These species also will probably suffer negative impacts from global warming, losing whole decades because the penguins have within the study area, the co-authors say.

"Growing storminess bodes ill not just for Magellanic penguins however for a number of other species," they write.

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Major cutbacks in seafloor marine existence from global warming by 2100

New research quantifies the very first time future deficits in deep-ocean marine existence, using advanced climate models. Results reveal that the most remote deep-ocean environments aren't protected from the impacts of global warming.

An worldwide team of researchers predict seafloor dwelling marine existence will decline by as much as 38 percent within the North Atlantic and also over five percent globally within the next century. These changes is going to be driven by a decrease in the plants and creatures living at the top of oceans that feed deep-ocean towns. Consequently, ecosystem services for example fishing is going to be threatened.

Within the study, brought through the National Oceanography Center, they used the most recent suite of climate models to calculate alterations in food around the world oceans. Then they applied rapport between food and biomass calculated from the huge global database of marine existence.

The outcomes from the study are released now within the scientific journal Global Change Biology.

These alterations in seafloor towns are required despite living normally four kms under the top of sea. It is because their meal source, the remains of surface sea marine existence that sink towards the seafloor, will dwindle due to a loss of nutrient availability. Nutrient supplies are affected due to climate impacts like a slowing down from the global sea circulation, in addition to elevated separation between water public -Known as 'stratification' -- consequently of warmer and rainier weather.

Lead author Dr Daniel Johnson states: "There's been some speculation about global warming impacts around the seafloor, but we would have liked to make statistical forecasts of these changes and estimate particularly where they'd occur.

"I was expecting some negative changes all over the world, however the extent of changes, especially in the North Atlantic, were staggering. Globally we're speaking about deficits of marine existence weighing greater than everyone in the world come up with.Inch

The forecasted alterations in marine existence aren't consistent around the globe, but many areas are experiencing negative change. Over 80 percent of recognized key habitats -- for example cold-water barrier reefs, seamounts and canyons -- are affected deficits as a whole biomass. Case study also forecasts that creatures can get more compact. More compact creatures often use energy less effectively, therefore affecting seabed fisheries and exacerbating the results from the overall declines in available food.

The research was funded through the Natural Atmosphere Research Council (NERC) included in the Marine Environment Mapping Programme (MAREMAP), and involved scientists in the National Oceanography Center, the Memorial College of Newfoundland, Canada, the College of Tasmania, and also the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et p l'Environnement, France.

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Photo voltaic activity not really a key reason for global warming, study shows

Global warming is not strongly affected by versions in warmth in the sun, a brand new study shows.

The findings overturn a broadly held scientific view that extended periods of warm and cold temperature previously may have been triggered by periodic fluctuations in photo voltaic activity.

Research analyzing what causes global warming within the northern hemisphere in the last 1000 years has proven that before the year 1800, the important thing driver of periodic alterations in climate was volcanic eruptions. These often prevent sunlight reaching Earth, leading to awesome, drier weather. Since 1900, green house gases happen to be the responsible for global warming.

The findings reveal that periods of low sun activity shouldn't be envisioned having a sizable effect on temps on the planet, and therefore are likely to improve scientists' understanding which help climate predicting.

Researchers in the College of Edinburgh completed the research using records of past temps built with data from tree rings along with other historic sources. They in comparison this data record with computer-based types of past climate, featuring both significant and minor changes under the sun.

They discovered that their type of weak changes under the sun gave the very best correlation with temperature records, showing that photo voltaic activity has already established a small effect on temperature previously millennium.

The research, released in Character GeoScience, was based on natural Atmosphere Research Council.

Dr Andrew Schurer, from the College of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences, stated: "So far, the influence from the sun on past climate continues to be poorly understood. Hopefully our new breakthroughs can help improve our knowledge of how temps have transformed in the last couple of centuries, and improve forecasts for the way they may develop later on. Links between your sun and anomalously cold winters within the United kingdom continue to be investigated."

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A warming world will further intensify extreme precipitation events

April 4, 2013

Heavy precipitation.

According to a newly-published NOAA-led study in Geophysical Research Letters, as the globe warms from rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, more moisture in a warmer atmosphere will make the most extreme precipitation events more intense.

The study, conducted by a team of researchers from the North Carolina State University’s Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC), NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the Desert Research Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and ERT, Inc., reports that the extra moisture due to a warmer atmosphere dominates all other factors and leads to notable increases in the most intense precipitation rates.

Percent maximum daily preciptation difference (2071-2100) - (1971-2000).

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

The study also shows a 20-30 percent expected increase in the maximum precipitation possible over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at a high emissions rate.

“We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events,” said Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D., senior research professor at CICS-NC and lead author of the paper.

The paper looked at three factors that go into the maximum precipitation value possible in any given location: moisture in the atmosphere, upward motion of air in the atmosphere, and horizontal winds. The team examined climate model data to understand how a continued course of high greenhouse gas emissions would influence the potential maximum precipitation. While greenhouse gas increases did not substantially change the maximum upward motion of the atmosphere or horizontal winds, the models did show a 20-30 percent increase in maximum moisture in the atmosphere, which led to a corresponding increase in the maximum precipitation value.

Rainy day.

The findings of this report could inform “design values,” or precipitation amounts, used by water resource managers, insurance and building sectors in modeling the risk due to catastrophic precipitation amounts. Engineers use design values to determine the design of water impoundments and runoff control structures, such as dams, culverts, and detention ponds.

“Our next challenge is to translate this research into local and regional new design values that can be used for identifying risks and mitigating potential disasters. Findings of this study, and others like it, could lead to new information for engineers and developers that will save lives and major infrastructure investments,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., director of NOAA’s NCDC in Asheville, N.C., and co-author on the paper.

The study, Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Climate Change, can be viewed online.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Dust Obscures Picture of Hurricanes in Warming World (LiveScience.com)

As a doozy of a hurricane season wraps up, scientists are eager to understand how these storms will change as the climate warms. They are finding several curious influences that can cause hurricanes to move in counterintuitive ways.

Scientists have a pretty good idea that hurricanes will become less frequent and more intense due to climate change, said oceanographer Chunzai Wang during a recent visit to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami, where scientists study everything from ocean acoustics to hurricane forecasting.

But other curveballs that recently have come to light complicate the picture. One is dust.

Every year, storms over West Africa disturb millions of tons of dust, and strong winds carry those particles westward into the skies over the Atlantic Ocean, where many hurricanes form. [Infographic: Storm Season! How, When & Where Hurricanes Form]

During a dust spike triggered by heavy rainfall, there's a drop in hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, Wang said. As the dust spreads into the atmosphere, it increases what's called the vertical wind shear, the change in wind direction that comes with height, Wang said. That's bad news for hurricanes, because too much wind shear can break up tropical cyclones (the general term for hurricanes and tropical storms).

A few years ago, scientists at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, pored over satellite data from the past 25 years and found that during years when the dust storms rose up, fewer hurricanes swept across the Atlantic. Periods of low duststorm activity were followed by more-intense hurricane activity.

Another curveball is warm water. Earlier this year, Wang and colleagues also published a report finding that, counterintuitively, a large pool of warm ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean keeps hurricanes away from the United States.

Wang said a hurricane behaves like a leaf floating in a river, totally at the whim of the current. So goes the river, so goes the leaf. A large Atlantic warm pool causes the atmospheric "river" to steer toward the northeast, carrying a hurricane with it and away from the United States.

This scenario played out during the 2010 hurricane season, when a large warm pool kept an otherwise active hurricane season from having an impact on the United States.

This story was provided by OurAmazingPlanet, a sister site to LiveScience. You can follow OurAmazingPlanet staff writer Brett Israel on Twitter: @btisrael. Follow OurAmazingPlanet for the latest in Earth science and exploration news on Twitter @OAPlanet and on Facebook.

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