Global warming's influence on extreme weather

Understanding the cause-and-effect relationship between global warming and record-breaking weather requires asking precisely the right questions.

Extreme climate and weather events such as record high temperatures, intense downpours and severe storm surges are becoming more common in many parts of the world. But because high-quality weather records go back only about 100 years, most scientists have been reluctant to say if global warming affected particular extreme events.

On Wednesday, Dec. 17, at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting in San Francisco, Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science at the Stanford School of Earth Sciences, will discuss approaches to this challenge in a talk titled "Quantifying the Influence of Observed Global Warming on the Probability of Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events." He will focus on weather events that -- at the time they occur -- are more extreme than any other event in the historical record.

Diffenbaugh emphasizes that asking precisely the right question is critical for finding the correct answer.

"The media are often focused on whether global warming caused a particular event," said Diffenbaugh, who is a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. "The more useful question for real-world decisions is: 'Is the probability of a particular event statistically different now compared with a climate without human influence?'"

Diffenbaugh said the research requires three elements: a long record of climate observations; a large collection of climate model experiments that accurately simulate the observed variations in climate; and advanced statistical techniques to analyze both the observations and the climate models.

One research challenge involves having just a few decades or a century of high-quality weather data with which to make sense of events that might occur once every 1,000 or 10,000 years in a theoretical climate without human influence.

But decision makers need to appreciate the influence of global warming on extreme climate and weather events.

"If we look over the last decade in the United States, there have been more than 70 events that have each caused at least $1 billion in damage, and a number of those have been considerably more costly," said Diffenbaugh. "Understanding whether the probability of those high-impact events has changed can help us to plan for future extreme events, and to value the costs and benefits of avoiding future global warming."

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Global warming will not reduce deaths in the winter months, British study concludes

New information released today finds that global warming is not likely to lessen britain's excess winter dying rate as formerly thought. The research is released within the journal Character Global Warming and debunks the broadly held view that warmer winters will cut the amount of deaths normally seen in the very coldest season.

Examining data in the past six decades, scientists in the College of Exeter and College College London (UCL) checked out the way the winter dying rate has transformed with time, and just what factors affected it.

They discovered that from 1951 to 1971, the amount of cold winter days was strongly associated with dying rates, while from 1971 to 1991, both the amount of cold days and flu activity were accountable for elevated dying rates. However, their analysis demonstrated that from 1991 to 2011, flu activity alone was the primary cause in year upon year variation in the winter months mortality.

Lead investigator Dr Philip Staddon stated "We have proven that the amount of cold days inside a winter no more describes its quantity of excess deaths. Rather, the primary reason for year upon year variation in the winter months mortality in recent decades continues to be flu."

They claim that this reduced outcomes of the amount of cold days and deaths inside a winter could be described by enhancements in housing, healthcare, earnings along with a greater understanding of the potential risks from the cold.

As global warming progresses, the United kingdom will probably experience growing weather extremes, including more less foreseeable periods of utmost cold. The study highlights that, despite a generally warmer winter, a far more volatile climate could really result in elevated amounts of winter deaths connected with global warming, instead of less.

Dr Staddon thinks the findings have important implications for policy:

"Both policy makers and health care professionals have, for a while, assumed that the potential take advantage of global warming is a decrease in deaths seen over winter. We have proven this is not likely to be. Efforts to combat winter mortality because of cold spells shouldn't be lessened, and individuals against flu and flu-like ailments ought to be maintained."

Co-author, Prof Hugh Montgomery of UCL stated:

"Global warming seems unlikely to reduce winter dying rates. Indeed, it might substantially increase them by driving extreme weather occasions and greater variation in the winter months temps. Action must automatically get to prevent this happening."

Co-author, Prof Michael Depledge of College of Exeter School Of Medicine stated:

"Studies from the kind we've carried out provide information that's key for policymakers and political figures planning to handle the impacts of global warming. We are hopeful that the significance of this problem is going to be understood, to ensure that matters of health insurance and environment security could be worked with seriously and effectively."

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Connecting storms to global warming a 'distraction', say experts

Hooking up extreme weather to global warming throws from the necessity to safeguard society from high-impact weather occasions which continuously happen regardless of human-caused global warming, say experts.

Writing within the journal Weather, Climate and Society, the College of Manchester scientists reason that cutting green house gas pollutants, while essential to reducing humanity's longer-term impact in the world, won't eliminate violent storms, tornadoes or flooding and also the damage they cause.

The authors claim that developing greater resilience to extreme weather occasions should be given greater priority when the socioeconomic impact of storms, like individuals which have ravaged Britain this winter, will be reduced.

Professor David Schultz, among the authors from the guest editorial, stated: "Among the lengthy-term results of global warming is frequently predicted to become a rise in the intensity and frequency of numerous high-impact weather occasions, so reducing green house gas pollutants is frequently seen is the reaction to the issue.

"Reducing humanity's effect on our world ought to be went after ought to be emergency, but more emphasis should also go on being resilient to individual weather occasions, because this year's storms in great britan have so devastatingly proven."

Previously, the authors, society taken care of immediately weather problems with requires greater resilience, but awareness of humanmade global warming has provided climate timescales (decades and centuries) much better importance than weather timescales (days and years)

Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology, and co-author Dr Vladimir Jankovic, a science historian specialising in climate and weather, the short-term, large variability from year upon year in high-impact weather causes it to be difficult, otherwise impossible, to attract conclusions concerning the correlation to longer-term global warming.

They reason that while large public opportunities in dams and ton defences, for instance, must take into account the options of methods weather might change later on, this will not prevent short-term thinking to deal with more immediate vulnerability to inevitable high-impact weather occasions.

"Staying away from construction in floodplains, applying strong building codes, and growing readiness could make society more resilient to extreme weather occasions," stated Dr Jankovic. "But adding to however , finding money for recovery is simpler than investing on prevention, even when the expense of recovery tend to be greater."

This prejudice, the authors, includes a inclination to decrease the political dedication for preventative measures against extreme weather, no matter whether or not they are triggered or intensified by humanmade influences. Yet, steps come to safeguard society in the weather can safeguard the earth too, they argue.

Dr Jankovic stated: "Enhancing predicting, growing readiness or building better infrastructure can increase resilience and lower carbon-dioxide pollutants. For instance, greening communities or painting roofs lighter colours will both lessen the urban warmth-island effect and lower carbon-dioxide pollutants through reduced air-conditioning costs, while making metropolitan areas more resistant against storm damage would cut back pollutants produced from repairing devastated areas."

Professor Schultz added: "Connecting high-impact weather occasions with global warming could be annoying perpetuating the concept that reducing green house gases could be enough to lessen progressively vulnerable world populations, in our opinion, only atmosphere the general public and policy-makers regarding the socio-economic inclination towards extreme weather.

"Without or with minimization, there's no quick-fix, single-cause solution for that problem of human vulnerability to socio-environment change, nor what is the reasonable prospect of attenuating high-impact weather. Addressing such issues will give the planet an chance to build up a 2-pronged policy in climate security, reducing longer-term climate risks along with stopping shorter-term weather problems."

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Off-shore trade winds stall global surface warming ... for the time being

The most powerful trade winds have driven a lot of warmth from climatic change in to the oceans. However when individuals winds slow, that warmth will quickly go back to the climate leading to a rapid increase in global average temps, scientists report.

Warmth saved within the western Gulf Of Mexico triggered by an unparalleled strengthening from the equatorial trade winds seems to become largely accountable for the hiatus in surface warming observed in the last 13 years.

New information released today within the journal Character Global Warming signifies the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation from the Gulf Of Mexico, leading to more warmth to become removed from the atmosphere and moved in to the subsurface sea, while getting cooler waters towards the surface.

"Researchers have lengthy suspected that extra sea warmth uptake has slowed down an upswing of worldwide average temps, however the mechanism behind the hiatus continued to be unclear" stated Professor Matthew England, lead author from the study along with a Chief Investigator in the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science.

"However the warmth uptake is in no way permanent: once the trade wind strength returns to normalcy -- because it inevitably will -- our research indicates warmth will rapidly accumulate within the atmosphere. So global temps look set to increase quickly from the hiatus, coming back towards the levels forecasted within less than ten years.Inch

The strengthening from the Off-shore trade winds started throughout the the nineteen nineties and continues today. Formerly, no climate designs include incorporated a trade wind strengthening from the magnitude observed, which models unsuccessful to capture the hiatus in warming. When the trade winds were added through the scientists, the worldwide average temps very carefully was similar to the findings throughout the hiatus.

"The winds result in extra sea warmth uptake, which delayed warming from the atmosphere. Comprising this wind intensification in model forecasts creates a hiatus in climatic change that's in striking agreement with findings," Prof England stated.

"Regrettably, however, once the hiatus finishes, climatic change looks set to become rapid."

The outcome from the trade winds on global average temps is triggered through the winds forcing warmth to amass below top of the Western Gulf Of Mexico.

"This moving of warmth in to the sea is not so deep, however, and when the winds abate, warmth is came back quickly towards the atmosphere" England describes.

"Climate researchers have lengthy understood that global average temps don't increase in a continuous upward trajectory, rather warming in a number of abrupt stages in between periods with increased-or-less steady temps. Our work helps let you know that this happens," stated Prof England.

"You should be very obvious: the present hiatus offers no comfort -- we're just seeing another pause in warming prior to the next inevitable increase in global temps."

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Over demanding market affects fisheries greater than global warming

Fisheries that depend on short existence species, for example shrimp or sardine, happen to be more impacted by global warming, as this phenomenon affects chlorophyll production, that is vital for phytoplankton, the primary food for species.

Revealed through the research "Socioeconomic Impact from the global change within the fishing assets from the Mexican Off-shore" headed by Ernesto A. Ch?vez Ortiz, in the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN).

Work carried out in the Interdisciplinary Center of Marine Sciences (CICIMAR) in the IPN, signifies that within the last 5 years there has been no "spectacular" changes due to global warming, what's affected the fishing assets more may be the over demanding market.

"Globally, an excellent area of the fishing assets has been used to the maximum capacity, several have overpass its regrowth capabilities and therefore are overexploited" Ch?vez Ortiz highlights.

The specialist at CICIMAR particulars the research comprised in exploratory weather and fisheries analysis, and confirmed what's been without effort stated for some time: many of the variability within the fishing is because of global warming, however , evidence had not been found to prove it.

"Within the research we found a obvious and objective method to show it: we required historic data from FAO regarding fisheries, available since 1950, in comparison it towards the data of weather variability and located high correlations.

Change designs were recognized, for instance, whilst in the 70's the sardine production increases, within the eighties it decreases substandard levels, meanwhile shrimp fishing elevated excellent but decreased within the 90's.

By doing this, climate changes were recognized within the mid 70's and late eighties that affected the fishing of sardine and shrimp within the Mexican Gulf Of Mexico, possibly due to El Ni?o. Within the particular situation from the shrimp, it effects are based on a port water in the region for instance, when there is a good pouring down rain season, you will see a rise in the crustacean production, that is reduced if this does not rain.

The investigator at CICIMAR clarifies the research into the fisheries, examined within the recommendations of the project, used of the simulation model that enables to judge optimal exploitation methods, possible alternation in the biomass from the examined assets, along with the long-term results of global warming, like cyclones, and hang them apart of individuals triggered through the concentration of the fishing.

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Finding mutual understanding fosters knowledge of global warming

Grasping the idea of global warming and it is effect on the atmosphere can be challenging. Creating mutual understanding and taking advantage of models, however, can break lower obstacles and offer the idea within an easily understood manner.

Inside a presentation only at that year's meeting from the American Association for that Growth of Science, Michigan Condition College systems ecologist and modeler Laura Schmitt-Olabisi shows how system dynamics models effectively communicate the difficulties and implications of global warming.

"To be able to face the continuing challenges resulting from climate adaptation, there's an excuse for tools that may promote dialogue across traditional limitations, for example individuals between researchers, everyone and decision makers," Schmitt-Olabisi stated. "Using boundary objects, for example maps, diagrams and models, all groups involved may use these objects to possess a discussion to produce possible solutions."

Schmitt-Olabisi has huge experience working directly with stakeholders using participatory model-building techniques. She utilizes a type of a hypothetical warmth wave in Detroit as one example of the implications of global warming.

Global warming is predicted to improve the regularity and concentration of prolonged high temperatures within the Area, that could potentially claim 100s or 1000's of lives. Warm weather kills more and more people within the U . s . States yearly than any other kind of natural disaster, and also the impacts of warmth on human health is a major global warming adaptation challenge.

To higher understand urban health systems and just how they react to prolonged high temperatures, Schmitt-Olabisi's team questioned urban organizers, health authorities and emergency managers. They converted individuals interviews right into a computer model together with data from earlier Midwestern prolonged high temperatures.

Participants can manipulate the model watching how their changes modify the results of an urgent situation. The exercise revealed some important restrictions of previous methods to reducing deaths and hospitalizations triggered by extreme warmth.

"The model challenges some broadly held presumptions, like the thought that opening more cooling centers is the greatest solution," Schmitt-Olabisi stated. "Because it works out, these centers are useless if individuals don't know they ought to visit them."

More to the point, the model supplies a tool, a language that everybody can understand. It's an optimistic illustration of how system dynamics models might be used as boundary objects to adjust to global warming, she added.

Overall, Schmitt-Olabisi finds this approach is really a effective tool for lighting trouble spots as well as for determining the how to help vulnerable populations. Future research will concentrate on enhancing the models' precision in addition to growing it past the Area.

"To ensure that the models to become used to enhance decision-making, more work will require be achieved to guarantee the model answers are realistic," Schmitt-Olabisi stated.

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NASA-JAXA launch pursuit to measure global rain, snow

The Worldwide Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, some pot Earth-watching mission between NASA and also the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), thundered into space at 10:37 a.m. PST Thursday, February. 27 (3:37 a.m. JST Friday, February. 28) from Japan.

The 4-ton spacecraft released aboard a Japanese H-IIA rocket from Tanegashima Space Focus on Tanegashima Island in southern Japan. The GPM spacecraft separated in the rocket 16 minutes after launch, in an altitude of 247 miles (398 kilometers). The photo voltaic arrays used ten minutes after spacecraft separation, to energy the spacecraft.

"With this particular launch, we've taken another giant leap in supplying the planet by having an unparalleled picture in our planet's snow and rain,Inch stated NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. "GPM will let us better understand our ever-altering climate, improve predictions of utmost weather occasions like surges, and assist decision makers all over the world to higher manage water assets."

The GPM Core Observatory will require a significant part of enhancing upon the abilities from the Tropical Rain fall Measurement Mission (TRMM), some pot NASA-JAXA mission released in 1997 but still functioning. While TRMM measured precipitation within the tropics, the GPM Core Observatory grows the policy area in the Arctic Circle towards the Antarctic Circle. GPM may also have the ability to identify light rain and snowfall, a significant supply of available freshwater in certain regions.

To higher understand Earth's climate and weather cycles, the GPM Core Observatory will collect information that unifies and enhances data from an worldwide constellation of existing and future satellites by mapping global precipitation every three hrs.

"It's incredibly exciting to determine this spacecraft launch," stated GPM Project Manager Art Azarbarzin of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "This is actually the moment the GPM team has worked toward since 2006. The GPM Core Observatory may be the product of the devoted team at Goddard, JAXA yet others worldwide. Soon, as GPM starts to gather precipitation findings, we'll see these instruments at the office supplying real-time information for that researchers concerning the intensification of storms, rain fall in remote areas and a whole lot.Inch

The GPM Core Observatory was put together at Goddard and it is the biggest spacecraft ever built in the center. It carries two instruments to determine rain and snowfall. The GPM Microwave Imager, supplied by NASA, will estimate precipitation extremes from heavy to light rain, and snowfall by carefully calculating the moment levels of energy naturally released by precipitation. The Twin-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), produced by JAXA using the National Institute of knowledge and Communication Technology, Tokyo, japan, uses released radar pulses to create detailed dimensions of three-dimensional rain fall structure and intensity, permitting researchers to enhance estimations of methods much water the precipitation holds. Mission procedures and information systems is going to be handled from Goddard.

"We have a great deal to find out about how snow and rain systems behave within the bigger Earth system," stated GPM Project Researcher Gail Skofronick-Jackson of Goddard. "Using the advanced instruments around the GPM Core Observatory, we'll have the very first time frequent unified global findings of all of precipitation, from the rain inside your backyard to storms developing within the oceans towards the falling snow adding to water assets."

"A year greater than a decade developing DPR using Japanese technology, the very first radar available wide,Inch stated Masahiro Kojima, JAXA GPM/DPR project manager. "I expect GPM to create important new recent results for society by enhancing weather predictions and conjecture of utmost occasions for example typhoons and flooding."

One half-dozen researchers from NASA's Jet Space Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., participate around the GPM science team, adding towards the mission's precipitation science, developing step-by-step methods for calculating precipitation data, and calibrating observatory sensors. JPL's Airborne 2-frequency Precipitation Radar may be the airborne simulator for that GPM Core Observatory's DPR and it is adding to GPM ground validation activities.

"The JPL team includes a lengthy good reputation for developing precipitation radar systems and processing techniques and aided in determining the first GPM mission concept," stated GPM science team member Joe Turk of JPL. "We can also be helping define the idea and advanced precipitation/cloud radar instrument for GPM's planned follow-on mission. We anticipate the greater complete and accurate picture of worldwide precipitation that GPM will enable."

The GPM Core Observatory may be the to begin NASA's five Earth science missions starting this season. Having a number of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns, NASA monitors Earth's vital signs from land, air and space. NASA also evolves new methods to observe and focus Earth's interconnected natural systems with lengthy-term data records and computer analysis tools to higher observe how our world is altering. The company freely shares this excellent understanding using the global community and works together with institutions within the U . s . States and round the world that lead to understanding and safeguarding the house planet.

To learn more about NASA's Earth science activities this season, visit: http://world wide web.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

To learn more about GPM, visit: http://world wide web.nasa.gov/gpm and http://world wide web.jaxa.jp/projects/sitting/gpm/index_e.html

The California Institute of Technology handles JPL for NASA.

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Southeast England most vulnerable to rising deaths because of global warming

Warmer summer season triggered by global warming may cause more deaths working in london and southeast England compared to relaxation of the nation, researchers predict.

Scientists at Imperial College London checked out temperature records and mortality figures for 2001 to 2010 to discover which districts in Britain go through the greatest effects from warm temps.

Within the most vulnerable districts, working in london and also the southeast, the chances of dying from cardiovascular or respiratory system causes elevated by over 10 percent for each 1C increase in temperature. Districts within the far north were a lot more resilient, seeing no rise in deaths at equivalent temps.

Writing in Character Global Warming, the scientists say local versions in global warming vulnerability should be taken into consideration when assessing the potential risks and selecting policy reactions.

Dr James Bennett, charge author from the study on the MRC-PHE Center for Atmosphere and Health at Imperial College London, stated: “It’s well-known that the sunshine can increase the chance of cardiovascular and respiratory system deaths, particularly in seniors people. Global warming is anticipated to boost average temps while increasing temperature variability, so don't be surprised it to possess effects on mortality even just in nations such as the United kingdom having a temperate climate.”

Across Britain in general, a summer time that's 2C warmer than average could be likely to cause around 1,550 extra deaths, the research found. Approximately half could be in people aged over 85, and 62 percent could be in females. The additional deaths could be distributed unevenly, with 95 from 376 districts comprising 1 / 2 of all deaths.

The results of warm temperature were similar in urban and rural districts. Probably the most vulnerable districts incorporated deprived districts working in london for example Hackney and Tower Hamlets, using the likelihood of dying greater than doubling on hot days like individuals of August 2003.

“The causes of the uneven distribution of deaths in the sunshine have to be analyzed,” stated Professor Majid Ezzati, in the School of Public Health at Imperial, who brought the study. “It may be because of more susceptible people being concentrated in certain areas, or it may be associated with variations in the community level, like quality of health care, that need government action.

“We might expect that individuals in areas that are usually warmer could be more resilient, simply because they adapt by setting up ac for instance. These results reveal that this isn’t the situation in Britain.

“While global warming is really a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to the effects are highly local. A lot of things can be achieved in the local level to lessen the outcome of warm spells, like notifying the general public and planning emergency services. More information about which towns are most in danger from high temps will help inform these methods.”

The scientists received funding in the Scientific Research Council, Public Health England, and also the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Center.

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Global warming could increase thunderstorm severity, climatologist forecasts

This spring might be a lot more like a lion than the usual lamb. John Harrington Junior. is really a synoptic climatologist and professor of geography at Kansas Condition College who studies weather occasions, how frequently they occur and also the conditions once they happened. He states global warming might be growing the seriousness of storms.

"Among the large concerns I've would be that the warmer atmospheric temps will drive a bit more evaporation from the sea and also the Gulf," Harrington stated. "One thing that can help storms be more powerful is getting more moisture, to ensure that added moisture could raise the height and harshness of a tall cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud."

Harrington stated the additional moisture will make storms more powerful and much more potent later on.

This season might also bring a general change in climate conditions because of El Ni?o, that the U . s . States hasn’t experienced for around 2 yrs. El Ni?o warms up the temperature from the Gulf Of Mexico, which produces cooler and wetter conditions for that West Coast. Harrington states there's a great possibility El Ni?o will arrive this fall entering winter.

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Global warming puts wheat crops vulnerable to disease

There's a danger that harshness of outbreaks of some wheat illnesses may increase over the following ten to two decades because of the impacts of global warming based on research by worldwide scientists brought through the College of Hertfordshire.

The scientists completed market research in China to determine a hyperlink between weather and the seriousness of outbreaks of fusarium ear blight around the wheat crops. This weather-based model ended up being accustomed to predict the outcome on harshness of the condition of future weather situations for that period from 2020 to 2050.

Professor Bruce Fitt, professor of plant pathology in the College of Hertfordshire's School of Medical and Existence Sciences, stated: "There's considerable debate concerning the impact of global warming on crop production -- and ensuring we've sufficient food to give the ever-growing global human population is answer to our future food security."

Wheat, among the world's most significant crops for human food, is milled to be used in bread, breakfast cereal products, cakes, pizzas, confectionery, sauces and lots of other food products. Fusarium ear blight is really a serious disease affecting wheat across many areas around the globe. Throughout severe outbreaks, wheat crop deficits is often as almost as much ast 60 percent. These deficits may become bigger as, under certain conditions, the fusarium virus produces toxic chemicals referred to as mycotoxins. The amount of mycotoxins contained in the grain may render it unacceptable for either human or animal consumption -- the mycotoxin safe levels being controlled by legislation.

Professor Fitt ongoing: "We all know the weather plays a large part in the introduction of the condition around the wheat crops -- the incidence from the disease is dependent upon temperature and the appearance of wet weather in the flowering or anthesis from the wheat crops."

Once the weather-based model developed at Rothamsted Research was utilized to calculate how global warming may modify the wheat crops, it had been predicted that wheat flowering dates will normally be earlier and also the incidence from the ear blight disease around the wheat crops will substantially increase.

The study indicates that global warming will raise the chance of serious ear blight outbreaks on winter wheat in Central China by the center of this century (2020-2050).

Similar conclusions were arrived at about impacts of global warming on wheat within the United kingdom, where global warming models are predicting warmer, wetter winters for that country. This indicates the United kingdom too are affected a larger incidence of fusarium ear blight on wheat crops -- greatly affecting our greatest staple crops.

Inside a world where several billion people don't have sufficient to consume, and our future food security is threatened by global warming as well as an ever-growing population, it is important to enhance the charge of crop illnesses like fusarium ear blight around the world.

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Extreme weather triggered by global warming decides distribution of bugs, study shows

As global warming is advancing, the temperature in our planet increases. Many of the essential for the big number of creatures which are cold-blooded (ectothermic), including bugs. Their body's temperature is ultimately based on the ambient temperature, and also the same therefore is applicable towards the efficiency and speed of the vital biological processes.

But could it be alterations in climate or frequency of utmost temperature problems that possess the finest effect on species distribution? It was the questions that several Danish and Australian scientists made the decision to look at in many insect species.

Johannes Overgaard, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus College, Denmark, Michael R. Kearney and Ary A. Hoffmann, Melbourne College, Australia, lately released the outcomes of those studies within the journal Global Change Biology. The outcomes demonstrate that it's particularly the extreme temperature occasions that comprise the distribution of both tropical and temperate species. Thus global warming affects ectotermic creatures mainly because more periods of utmost weather are required later on.

Fruit flies were patterned

The scientists examined 10 fruit fly types of the genus Drosophila modified to tropical and temperate parts of Australia. First they examined the temps that the species can sustain growth and reproduction, and they found the limitations of tolerance for cold and hot temps.

"This is actually the very first time ever where we've been in a position to compare the results of extremes and alterations in average conditions inside a rigorous manner across several species," mentions Ary Hoffmann.

According to this understanding and understanding from the present distribution from the 10 species then they examined if distribution was correlated towards the temps needed for growth and reproduction in other words restricted to their ability to tolerate extreme temperature conditions.

"The solution was unambiguous: it's the species' ability to tolerate very hot or cold days that comprise their present distribution," states Johannes Overgaard.

Therefore, it is the ultimate weather occasions, for example prolonged high temperatures or very cold weather, that amounted to the bugs their existence, not a rise in climate.

Drastic changes available

With this particular information in hands, the scientists could then model how distributions are required to alter if global warming continues for the following a century.

Most terrestrial creatures experience temperature variation on daily and periodic time scale, and they're modified to those conditions. Thus, for any species to keep its existence under different temperature conditions you will find two simple conditions that must definitely be met. First of all, the temperature should from time to time be so that the species can grow and reproduce, and next, the temperature must not be so extreme the population's survival is threatened.

In temperate climate for instance, you will find many species that are modified to pass through low temps during the cold months, after which grow and reproduce within the summer time. In warmer environments, the task might be quite contrary. Here, the species might endure high temps throughout the dry hot summer time, while growth and reproduction mainly happens throughout the mild and wet winter period.

The end result was discouraging for those 10 species.

"Global warming can lead to less cold days or weeks, and therefore allow species to maneuver toward greater latitudes. However global warming also results in a greater incidence to very hot days and our model therefore forecasts the distribution of those species will disappear to under half their present distribution"states Johannes Overgaard.

"Actually, our forecasts are that some species would disappear entirely within the next couple of decades, even whether they have a reasonably wide distribution that presently covers 100s of kilometers," adds Ary Hoffmann.

"Although no 10 species analyzed are usually regarded as either dangerous or advantageous microorganisms for human society, the outcomes indicate that distribution of numerous insect species is going to be transformed significantly, and it'll most likely also affect most of the species which have particular social or commercial importance ," finishes Johannes Overgaard.

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Global warming will improve survival rates of British bird -- the lengthy-tailed tit

Global warming might be not so good news for billions, but researchers in the College of Sheffield have found one unlikely champion -- a small British bird, the lengthy-tailed tit.

Like other small creatures living for just 2 or 3 years, these wild birds had so far been considered to die in large amounts throughout cold winters. But new information indicates that the sunshine throughout spring rather supports the answer to their survival.

The findings originate from a 20-year study of lengthy-tailed tits operated by Professor Ben Hatchwell in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences. The current jobs are brought by PhD student Philippa Gullett and Dr Karl Evans from Sheffield, together with Take advantage of Robinson in the British Trust for Ornithology.

"Throughout spring, wild birds must work their socks off and away to raise their chicks," stated Philippa Gullett.

"For many small wild birds living for just 2 or 3 years, not raising any chicks twelve months is really a disaster. They may only acquire one more chance, so that they can not afford to fail."

No real surprise then these wild birds are prepared to invest everything and risk dying whether it means their youthful survive. The surprise is the fact that weather helps to make the difference. The study learned that wild birds attempting to breed in dry and warm springs cash good chances of making it through to another year -- a singular result that counters common presumptions about the reason for dying for small wild birds.

"What appears to become happening would be that the tits attempt to raise their chicks no matter what,Inch added Ms Gullett.

"Whether it's winter in spring, which makes their job much harder. Meals are harder to locate eggs and chicks are vulnerable to getting cold. As a result through the finish from the breeding season, the adult wild birds are exhausted."

The research found no real aftereffect of winter months recently on adult survival, however winter autumns were connected having a greater dying rate.

"We are not to imply that wild birds never die in the winter months -- in harsh years you will find certain to be some deaths," described Dr Karl Evans.

"However, it appears that in many years fall weather plays a larger role, possibly serving as a filter that weeds out less strong wild birds prior to the real winter hits."

Although autumns could get wetter in in the future, any rise in mortality will probably be offset by the advantages of warmer breeding seasons, when more benign conditions lessen the costs of breeding.

Dr Evans added: "Searching ahead towards the future, our data indicates that each single plausible global warming scenario can result in an additional rise in lengthy-tailed survival rates. Even though many species struggle to sit in global warming, these wonderful wild birds appear apt to be those who win."

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Deaths credited straight to global warming cast pall over penguins

Global warming is killing penguin chicks in the world's biggest colony of Magellanic penguins, not only not directly -- by depriving them of food, as continues to be frequently recorded of these along with other seabirds -- but directly consequently of drenching rainstorms and, at in other cases, warmth, based on new findings in the College of Washington.

Too large for moms and dads to sit down over protectively, but nonetheless too youthful to possess grown waterproof down, downy penguin chicks uncovered to drenching rain can struggle and die of hypothermia regardless of the very best efforts of the concerned parents. And throughout extreme warmth, chicks without waterproofing can't have a dip in cooling waters as grown ups can.

Various research groups have released findings around the reproductive consequences from single storms or prolonged high temperatures, occasions that individually are impossible to tie to global warming. The brand new results span 27 many years of data collected in Argentina underneath the direction of Dee Boersma, UW biology professor, using the support from the Wildlife Conservation Society, the UW, work of Turismo in Argentina's Chubut Province, the worldwide Penguin Society and also the La Regina family. Boersma is lead author of the paper around the findings within the Jan. 29 problem of PLOS ONE.

"It is the first lengthy-term study to exhibit global warming getting a significant effect on chick survival and reproductive success," stated Boersma, that has brought area work since 1983 in the world's biggest breeding position for Magellanic penguins, about midway in the Chesapeake bay of Argentina at Punta Tombo, where 200,000 pairs reside from September through Feb to obtain their youthful.

Throughout a length of 27 years, typically 65 % of chicks died each year, with a few 40 % depriving. Global warming, a comparatively new reason for chick dying, wiped out typically 7 percent of chicks each year, but there have been years if this was the most typical reason for dying, killing 43 percent of chicks twelve months and fully half in another.

Starvation and weather will probably interact progressively as climate changes, Boersma stated.

"Depriving chicks may die inside a storm," she stated. "There might not be much we are able to do in order to mitigate global warming, but steps could automatically get to make certain our planet's biggest colony of Magellanic penguins have sufficient to consume by developing a marine protected reserve, with rules on fishing, where penguins forage while raising small chicks."

Rain fall and the amount of storms per breeding season have previously elevated in the Argentine study site, stated Ginger root Rebstock, UW research researcher and also the co-author from the paper. For example within the first couple of days of December, when all chicks are under 25 days old and many susceptible to storm dying, the amount of storms elevated between 1983 and 2010.

"We are likely to see years where very little chicks survive if global warming makes storms bigger and much more frequent throughout vulnerable occasions from the breeding season as climatologists predict," Rebstock stated.

Magellanics are medium-sized penguins standing about 15 inches tall and weighing about ten pounds. Males from the species seem like braying donkeys once they vocalize. From the Earth's 17 types of penguins, 10 -- including Magellanics -- breed where there's no snow, it's relatively dry and temps could be temperate.

Punta Tombo is really arid it will get typically only 4 inches (100 mm) of rain throughout the six-month breeding season and, sometimes, no rain falls whatsoever. Rain is a concern and kills lower-covered chicks age range 9 to 23 days when they can't warm-up and dry out after heavy storms in November and December when temps will probably dip. If chicks can live 25 days or even more, they have enough juvenile plumage to safeguard them. Once chicks die, parents don't lay additional eggs that season.

The findings derive from weather information, collected in the regional airport terminal by scientists within the area, in addition to from penguin counts. Throughout the breeding season scientists visit nests a couple of times each day to determine what's happening and record the items in the nest, frequently looking for chicks once they move about as they age. When chicks disappear or are located dead, the scientists become detectives searching for proof of starvation, potential predators or any other reasons for dying for example being pecked or beaten by other penguins.

Just away from two several weeks within the area, Boersma stated warmth this year required a larger toll on chicks than storms. Such variability between years is why the amount of chicks dying from global warming isn't a tidy, ever-growing figure every year. With time, however, the scientists expect global warming is going to be an progressively important reason for dying.

Also adding to growing deaths from global warming is always that, over 27 years, penguin parents have showed up towards the breeding site later and then around, most likely since the seafood they eat are also coming later, Boersma stated. The later around chicks hatch the much more likely they'll be within their lower-covered stage when storms typically get in November and December.

Aside from the coast of Argentina, Magellanic penguins also breed around the Chile-side of South Usa as well as in the Falkand (Malvinas) Islands, breeding ranges they tell some 60 other seabird species. These species also will probably suffer negative impacts from global warming, losing whole decades because the penguins have within the study area, the co-authors say.

"Growing storminess bodes ill not just for Magellanic penguins however for a number of other species," they write.

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Major cutbacks in seafloor marine existence from global warming by 2100

New research quantifies the very first time future deficits in deep-ocean marine existence, using advanced climate models. Results reveal that the most remote deep-ocean environments aren't protected from the impacts of global warming.

An worldwide team of researchers predict seafloor dwelling marine existence will decline by as much as 38 percent within the North Atlantic and also over five percent globally within the next century. These changes is going to be driven by a decrease in the plants and creatures living at the top of oceans that feed deep-ocean towns. Consequently, ecosystem services for example fishing is going to be threatened.

Within the study, brought through the National Oceanography Center, they used the most recent suite of climate models to calculate alterations in food around the world oceans. Then they applied rapport between food and biomass calculated from the huge global database of marine existence.

The outcomes from the study are released now within the scientific journal Global Change Biology.

These alterations in seafloor towns are required despite living normally four kms under the top of sea. It is because their meal source, the remains of surface sea marine existence that sink towards the seafloor, will dwindle due to a loss of nutrient availability. Nutrient supplies are affected due to climate impacts like a slowing down from the global sea circulation, in addition to elevated separation between water public -Known as 'stratification' -- consequently of warmer and rainier weather.

Lead author Dr Daniel Johnson states: "There's been some speculation about global warming impacts around the seafloor, but we would have liked to make statistical forecasts of these changes and estimate particularly where they'd occur.

"I was expecting some negative changes all over the world, however the extent of changes, especially in the North Atlantic, were staggering. Globally we're speaking about deficits of marine existence weighing greater than everyone in the world come up with.Inch

The forecasted alterations in marine existence aren't consistent around the globe, but many areas are experiencing negative change. Over 80 percent of recognized key habitats -- for example cold-water barrier reefs, seamounts and canyons -- are affected deficits as a whole biomass. Case study also forecasts that creatures can get more compact. More compact creatures often use energy less effectively, therefore affecting seabed fisheries and exacerbating the results from the overall declines in available food.

The research was funded through the Natural Atmosphere Research Council (NERC) included in the Marine Environment Mapping Programme (MAREMAP), and involved scientists in the National Oceanography Center, the Memorial College of Newfoundland, Canada, the College of Tasmania, and also the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et p l'Environnement, France.

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Photo voltaic activity not really a key reason for global warming, study shows

Global warming is not strongly affected by versions in warmth in the sun, a brand new study shows.

The findings overturn a broadly held scientific view that extended periods of warm and cold temperature previously may have been triggered by periodic fluctuations in photo voltaic activity.

Research analyzing what causes global warming within the northern hemisphere in the last 1000 years has proven that before the year 1800, the important thing driver of periodic alterations in climate was volcanic eruptions. These often prevent sunlight reaching Earth, leading to awesome, drier weather. Since 1900, green house gases happen to be the responsible for global warming.

The findings reveal that periods of low sun activity shouldn't be envisioned having a sizable effect on temps on the planet, and therefore are likely to improve scientists' understanding which help climate predicting.

Researchers in the College of Edinburgh completed the research using records of past temps built with data from tree rings along with other historic sources. They in comparison this data record with computer-based types of past climate, featuring both significant and minor changes under the sun.

They discovered that their type of weak changes under the sun gave the very best correlation with temperature records, showing that photo voltaic activity has already established a small effect on temperature previously millennium.

The research, released in Character GeoScience, was based on natural Atmosphere Research Council.

Dr Andrew Schurer, from the College of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences, stated: "So far, the influence from the sun on past climate continues to be poorly understood. Hopefully our new breakthroughs can help improve our knowledge of how temps have transformed in the last couple of centuries, and improve forecasts for the way they may develop later on. Links between your sun and anomalously cold winters within the United kingdom continue to be investigated."

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Global July temperatures sixth highest on record

Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective September 2012, the GHCN-M version 3.2.0 dataset of monthly mean temperature replaced the GHCN-M version 3.1.0 monthly mean temperature dataset. Beginning with the August 2012 Global monthly State of the Climate Report, released on September 17, 2012, GHCN-M version 3.2.0 is used for NCDC climate monitoring activities, including calculation of global land surface temperature anomalies and trends. For more information about this newest version, please see the GHCN-M version 3.2.0 Technical Report.

*The GHCN-M version 3.1.0 Technical Report was revised on September 5, 2012 to accurately reflect the changes incorporated in that version. Previously that report incorrectly included discussion of changes to the Pairwise Homogeneity Algorithm (PHA). Changes to the PHA are included in version 3.2.0 and described in the version 3.2.0 Technical Report. Please see the Frequently Asked Questions to learn more about this update.

An omission in processing a correction algorithm led to some small errors on the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly dataset (GHCN-M v3.2.0). This led to small errors in the reported land surface temperatures in the October, November, December and Annual U.S. and global climate reports. On February 14, 2013, NCDC fixed this error in its software, included an additional improvement (described below), and implemented both changes as GHCN-M version 3.2.1. With this update to GHCN-M, the Merged Land and Ocean Surface Temperature dataset also is subsequently revised as MLOST version 3.5.3.

The net result of this new version of GHCN-M reveals very small changes in temperature and ranks. The 2012 U.S. temperature is 0.01°F higher than reported in early January, but still remains approximately 1.0°F warmer than the next warmest year, and approximately 3.25°F warmer than the 20th century average. The U.S. annual time series from version 3.2.1 is almost identical to the series from version 3.2.0 and that the 1895-2012 annual temperature trend remains 0.13°F/decade. The trend for certain calendar months changed more than others (discussed below). For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global land temperature trends changed no more than 0.01°C/century for any month since 1880.

NCDC uses two correction processes to remove inhomogeneities associated with factors unrelated to climate such as changes in observer practices, instrumentation, and changes in station location and environment that have occurred through time. The first correction for time of observation changes in the United States was inadvertently disabled during late 2012. That algorithm provides for a physically based correction for observing time changes based on station history information. NCDC also routinely runs a .pairwise correction. algorithm that addresses such issues, but in an indirect manner. It successfully corrected for many of the time of observation issues, which minimized the effect of this processing omission.

The version 3.2.1 release also includes the use of updated data to improve quality control and correction processes of other U.S. stations and neighboring stations in Canada and Mexico.

Compared to analyses released in January 2013, the trend for certain calendar months has changed more than others. This effect is related to the seasonal nature of the reintroduced time-of-observation correction. Trends in U.S. winter temperature are higher while trends in summer temperatures are lower. For the globe, ranks of individual years changed in some instances by a few positions, but global temperature trends changed no more than 0.01°C/century for any month since 1880.

More complete information about this issue is available at this supplemental page.

NCDC will not update the static reports from October through December 2012 and the 2012 U.S and Global annual reports, but will use the current dataset (GHCN-M v. 3.2.1 and MLOST v. 3.5.3) for the January 2013 report and other comparisons to previous months and years.

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2013 was the sixth highest on record, at 0.61°C (1.10°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F). The global land surface temperature was 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 14.3°C (57.8°F), marking the eighth warmest July on record. For the ocean, the July global sea surface temperature was 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the fifth warmest July on record. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–July period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F), tying with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record.

Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v3b) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. The July 2013 Global State of the Climate report includes percentile maps that complement the information provided by the anomaly maps. These maps on the right provide additional information by placing the temperature anomaly observed for a specific place and time period into historical perspective, showing how the most current month, season, or year-to-date compares with the past.

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In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the July 2013 map—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

The average global temperature across the world's land and ocean surfaces for July 2013 was 0.61°C (1.10°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), making this the sixth warmest July since records began in 1880. This marks the 341st consecutive month, since February 1985, that the global monthly temperature has been higher than the long-term average for its respective month. Nine of the ten warmest Julys on record have occurred since the beginning of the 21st century (July 1998 is currently the record warmest).

Most of the world's land surfaces were warmer than average during July, with northern South America, the western and northeastern United States, much of Africa, western and central Europe, parts of southern Asia, and most of Australia classified as much warmer than average, as indicated by the Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Parts of the central and southeastern United States, small regions across northern Canada, eastern Greenland, and parts of Mongolia and eastern Russia were cooler than average. Far northwestern Canada and part of the eastern United States were much cooler than their long-term averages. Overall, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was the eighth warmest July on record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average. The Northern Hemisphere tied with 2008 as 10th warmest, while the Southern Hemisphere was second highest for July, behind only 1998.

Select national information is highlighted below:
The national July temperature for Australia was 1.46°C (2.63°F) above the 1961–1990 average, marking the third warmest July since national records began in 1901. The July maximum temperature was the third highest at 1.52°C (2.74°) above average, while the minimum temperature was eighth highest. With the exception of Western Australia, every state and territory had an average July temperature that ranked among their seven highest on record. Tasmania reported a record high state-wide maximum temperature that was 1.28°C (2.30°F) higher than average, breaking the previous record set in 1950 and tied in 1993. No state or territory had maximum or minimum temperatures below their long-term averages.
New Zealand observed its fourth warmest July since national records began in 1909, with a temperature that was 1.2°C (2.2°F) higher than the 1971–2000 average. Many locations around Otago and Canterbury on the South Island had a record warm July.
Spain had its fifth warmest July since national records began in 1961, with a temperature that was 1.6°C (2.9°F) above the 1971–2000 average. The northern regions observed the highest anomalies, with some areas up to 3°C (5°F) above average.
It was the third warmest July across the United Kingdom since records began in 1910, at 1.9°C (3.4°F) above the 1981–2010 average. The "most notable heat wave since 2006" contributed to the warmth, according to the UK Met Office. Provisionally, it was the warmest July and second warmest month of any month on record (behind August 1995) for Northern Ireland.
With records dating back to 1767, Austria reported its second warmest July, tied with July 1983 and behind only 2006, with the nationally-averaged temperature 2.2°C (4.0°F) above the 1981–2010 average. Upper Austria and Salzburg each set new state maximum temperatures on July 28th.
The average July temperature across South Korea was the fourth warmest in the country's 41-year period of record, at 1.8°C (3.2°F) above the 1981–2010 average. The July minimum temperature was second highest on record for the month, at 2.1°C (3.8°F) above average.
July was warmer than average across nearly all of Japan. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Western Japan was significantly warmer than average, with a regionally-averaged July temperature that was 1.6°C (2.9°F) above the 1981–2010 average.

The globally-averaged ocean temperature was the fifth highest for July in the 134-year period of record, at 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20th century average. This marks the warmest July for the oceans since July 2009, when the last El Niño phase on record was beginning. During July 2013, conditions in the eastern and equatorial Pacific Ocean, where ENSO conditions are monitored via sea surface temperature observations, remained ENSO neutral, with near-average sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and below-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Neutral conditions, with some temperature variation within the defined range (less than plus or minus 0.5°C / 0.9°F of average), have persisted since spring 2012. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2013. In other parts of the global oceans, many regions were much warmer than average, with part of the northeastern Atlantic off the coast of North America, sections of the southern Indian Ocean, and various regions in the western Pacific observing record warmth, as indicated on the Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. The far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of northern South America was the only region of the oceans that was much cooler than average for the month. Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2013 from the weekly SST page.

JulyAnomalyRank
(out of 134 years)Records

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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With ENSO-neutral conditions present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for the entire period, the globally-averaged combined land and ocean temperature for the first seven months of 2013 (January–July) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) higher than the 20th century average, tying with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record. The global land surface temperature was also the sixth warmest on record. The Northern Hemisphere land areas were eighth warmest on average, while the Southern Hemisphere land was third warmest. In this region, much of Australia, along with part of southern Chile and central Namibia, were record warm, as indicated by the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Around the globe, only land surfaces across much of the United Kingdom and parts the central and southeastern United States were cooler than average for the January–July period. For the global oceans, the average January–July temperature was 0.45°C (0.81°F) above average, the eighth warmest such period on record. It was much warmer than average across the equatorial waters of the Atlantic, Indian, and western Pacific Oceans, along with waters surrounding most of Australia and the far northeastern Atlantic extending into the Arctic Seas.

January–JulyAnomalyRank
(out of 134 years)Records

The most current data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

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The maps below represent precipitation percent of normal (left) and precipitation percentiles (right) based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations using a base period of 1961–1990. As is typical, precipitation anomalies during July 2013 varied significantly around the world. As indicated by the July precipitation percentiles map below, much of the eastern and central United States, India, southeastern Asia, and parts of eastern Russia were wetter or much wetter than average during July. Record dryness was present among regions that included part of central Europe, eastern Turkey, some scattered regions in west Africa, east central Brazil, and northern coastal Chile.

The United Kingdom had its driest July since 2006, with rainfall 82 percent of the 1981–2010 average. South-west England, East Anglia, and north-west Scotland were among the driest regions during the month.
Austria observed its driest July since national records began in 1858, with just 35 percent of the 1981–2010 average precipitation. Several regions only received 5 to 20 percent of their typical July rainfall.
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Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Database. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.

Quayle, R.G., T.C. Peterson, A.N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey, 1999: An operational near-real-time global temperature index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 333-335.

Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

Smith et al., 2008, Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate., 21, 2283-2293.

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Toyota, Honda global output halved after quake (AFP)

TOKYO (AFP) – Japanese auto giants Toyota and Honda saw global production halved in April as the March 11 earthquake and tsunami ravaged supply chains, the companies said Friday.

Honda reported a 52.9 percent year-on-year drop in worldwide production and an 81.0 percent slump in domestic output, while Toyota said global production was down 48.1 percent.

The quake and the resulting tsunami shattered component supply chains and crippled electricity-generating facilities, including a nuclear power plant at the centre of an ongoing atomic emergency.

Amid power and parts shortages, Toyota had announced production disruptions domestically and in the United States, Europe, China and Australia because of the crisis, temporarily slowing output or shutting plants.

The company announced a year-on-year drop of 15.4 percent in its global sales figures for April.

Honda, which was forced to temporarily suspend all production at its Japanese sites, said domestic sales were down 46.3 percent on year while exports dropped 76.2 percent.

"The figures are pretty much along the lines of what we had expected. The months of March and April are the most severely hit by the disaster," Ryoichi Saito, an auto analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities, said.

"In April, we saw auto plants operating for only about half the month, about half the capacity."

Many component manufacturers that are key to auto production are based in the worst-hit regions of Japan, their facilities damaged by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake or inundated by the giant wave that followed.

While most plants resumed production by mid-April, operations remain well below capacity and analysts warn parts shortages could go on for months, with the threat of summer power shortages also casting a shadow.

Honda said it expected production volume in Asia and Oceania to start picking up in July, the carmaker's Asian Honda Motor Co. unit said.

The company said in a statement it expects its production in Asia and Oceania "will be normalised during the August to September time period at almost all auto plants in the region", Dow Jones Newswires reported.

The picture looked less gloomy for Nissan Motor Co., however, which makes up Japan's big three automakers alongside Toyota and Honda.

The company said global production in April had decreased 22.4 percent on-year but announced a 4.4 percent rise in worldwide sales, marking an all-time record for the month of April.

"Production is picking up earlier than expected, and I expect auto production will recover considerably in June," Saito told AFP. "Auto part makers for Toyota have also said their production will come to about 90 percent of what it should be by June. I'd say production bottomed out in April and will start recovering in May."

Nissan plans to manufacture around 98,000 vehicles in Japan next month, the Nikkei daily said, nearly unchanged from the year-earlier 100,000 or so. And its projected June-November output of roughly 560,000 units is only slightly lower than the 590,000 units of a year earlier.

Total domestic auto output in fiscal 2011 is on course to reach around eight million units, the report said, just 10 percent off the figure for 2010.

The woes of Japan's automakers have been in stark contrast to overseas rivals. South Korea's Hyundai last month posted a 47 percent rise in first quarter net profit on higher prices and strong demand.

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