Even in restored forests, extreme weather strongly influences wildfire's impacts

The 2013 Rim Fire, the largest wildland fire ever recorded in the Sierra Nevada region, is still fresh in the minds of Californians, as is the urgent need to bring forests back to a more resilient condition. Land managers are using fire as a tool to mimic past fire conditions, restore fire-dependent forests, and reduce fuels in an effort to lessen the potential for large, high-intensity fires, like the Rim Fire. A study led by the U.S. Forest Service's Pacific Southwest Research Station (PSW) and recently published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management examined how the Rim Fire burned through forests with restored fire regimes in Yosemite National Park to determine whether they were as resistant to high-severity fire as many scientists and land managers expected.

Since the late 1960s, land managers in Yosemite National Park have used prescribed fire and let lower intensity wildland fires burn in an attempt to bring back historical fire regimes after decades of fire suppression. For this study, researchers seized a unique opportunity to study data on forest structure and fuels collected in 2009 and 2010 in Yosemite's old-growth, mixed-conifer forests that had previously burned at low to moderate severity. Using post-Rim Fire data and imagery, researchers found that areas burned on days the Rim Fire was dominated by a large pyro-convective plume -- a powerful column of smoke, gases, ash, and other debris -- burned at moderate to high severity regardless of the number of prior fires, topography, or forest conditions.

"The specific conditions leading to large plume formation are unknown, but what is clear from many observations is that these plumes are associated with extreme burning conditions," says Jamie Lydersen, PSW biological science technician and the study's lead author. "Plumes often form when atmospheric conditions are unstable, and result in erratic fire behavior driven by its own local effect on surface wind and temperatures that override the influence of more generalized climate factors measured at nearby weather stations."

When the extreme conditions caused by these plumes subsided during the Rim Fire, other factors influenced burn severity. "There was a strong influence of elapsed time since the last burn, where forests that experienced fire within the last 14 years burned mainly at low severity in the Rim Fire. Lower elevation areas and those with greater shrub cover tended to burn at higher severity," says Lydersen.

When driven by extreme weather, which often coincides with wildfires that escape initial containment efforts, fires can severely burn large swaths of forest regardless of ownership and fire history. These fires may only be controlled if more forests across the landscape have been managed for fuel reduction to allow early stage suppression before weather- and fuels-driven fire intensity makes containment impossible. Coordination of fire management activities by land management agencies across jurisdictions could favor burning under more moderate weather conditions when wildfires start and reduce the occurrences of harmful, high-intensity fires.

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Physicist presents new observational solar weather model

Scientists now have an observational framework to help predict solar weather and how it will affect Earth.

"Now it's possible that we can have a space weather model that's like Earth's meteorology," says physicist Dr. S.T. Wu, distinguished professor emeritus of The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering.

That's thanks to the observation-based model that predicts the occurrence and timing of solar mass ejections recently presented by Dr. Wu at the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics' (SCOSTEP's) 13th Quadrennial Solar-Terrestrial Physics Symposium in Xi'An, China.

Being able to predict such events is important because a powerful direct hit by a coronal mass ejection (CME) is like a huge space hurricane that can deform Earth's magnetic field and fry the circuits of orbiting satellites, spacecraft and delicate terrestrial electronics.

In a large-scale storm, cell service would stop, air traffic control would lose its eyes and ears, and everything could be affected from traffic light control to the automated heating and cooling of buildings to the critical systems that control nuclear armaments. Earth would become largely dark as power grids blink offline.

The solar radiation could directly affect the health of humans, too, Dr. Wu says.

"If you travel to the Pacific, the airlines like to fly you there over the North Pole," he says. "That is the most direct route. But during a coronal event, the solar radiation can affect people, so the airlines try to avoid it by flying below the polar route."

Diverting around the polar route is necessary but costs extra time and money, Dr. Wu says, which is why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meets with airlines annually about possible upcoming events. Better predictions would help airlines.

The new predictive model is the culmination of decades of work by Dr. Wu, the founder and first director of UAH's Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research (CSPAR). He wrote his first research paper on the subject of CME modeling in 1978.

The new model advances previous CME work by Dr. Wu and a global research group that includes his former students and post-doctoral students. Working with Dr. Wu are Dr. Chaowei Jiang of CSPAR and Dr. Xueshang Feng, Dr. Yufen Zhou and Dr. Qiang Hu of China's State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Solar-Interplanetary-GeoMAgnetic Weather Group (SIGMA Weather Group).

In the previous work, Dr. Wu's team devised a model for the development of CMEs that was tested and proven against CMEs observed in the past. The scientists also modeled the conditions that are present in solar magnetic shear -- a sigmoidal twisting of the sun's magnetic field, flux emergence, null formation, torus instability, reconnection and free energy that can cause a CME. Their mathematical model of developing coronal mass ejections was shown to be accurate by comparison with actual observed phenomena from spacecraft tracking events on the sun's surface.

The researchers successfully performed a data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a realistic CME initiation process, a step that helped lead to the predictive model and to better understanding the precursors to these solar storms. "Last time, we only modeled a coronal mass ejection," Dr. Wu says. "Now, we have put that eruption result into our propagation model. We have integrated what we did before into a global propagation model."

The predictive model can foresee the development and impacts of a CME from its genesis on the sun through its journey in the interplanetary medium and to its interaction with Earth.

The presentation was well received by the scientists at the conference because "I didn't use any theoretical inputs," says Dr. Wu.

"Others are doing this work, but they are still using theoretical models, but our work is observational, and that is the difference," he says. "It is more realistic because we start out from the sun and what you can see there, and then we work our way out."

The model provides important information to other scientists working on solar storm prediction.

"I've got the framework that says it can be done, so now everybody can do it," says Dr. Wu. Further development of an accurate solar weather prediction system will take supercomputers and the efforts of many researchers and universities, he says. "Now, everybody can jump in with their own research."

Arriving at the working model caps took 36 years of research for Dr. Wu, a period of time he puts in perspective by talking about the development of meteorology.

"It took 60 years to develop accurate meteorology on Earth," he says. "Everybody knows we needed to do this, but finally we got a result. I feel really good about that I can get a handle on it."

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Top weather conditions that amplify Lake Erie algal blooms revealed

Of the many weather-related factors that contribute to harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Lake Erie, a new study has identified one as most important: the wind.

Over a 10-year period in Lake Erie, wind speed contributed more consistently to HABs than sunshine or even precipitation, researchers at The Ohio State University and their colleagues found.

The ongoing study is unusual, in that researchers are building the first detailed analyses of how the various environmental factors influence each other -- in the context of satellite studies of Lake Erie.

They gave their early results at the American Geophysical Union meeting on Dec. 17.

To C.K. Shum, Distinguished University Scholar and professor of geodetic science at Ohio State, the finding "underscores the need for environmental agencies to incorporate the threat of extreme weather events caused by climate change into future algae mitigation strategies."

Where other studies have linked weather phenomena to HABs, this study goes a step further to look at how environmental drivers impact each other, and "ranks" them by their relative importance in promoting HABs, said Song Liang, formerly of Ohio State and now an associate professor of environmental and global health at the University of Florida.

"What surprised us the most was how the impact of nonweather factors, such as nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, varied strongly by season, while weather factors remained consistently important throughout the year," he said.

Researchers have long known that high nitrogen and phosphorus levels are the actual causes of HABs, which choke freshwater ecosystems and render the water toxic. But when it comes to the various environmental factors that can amplify the amount of these nutrients in the water, or aid or hamper the spread of algae, the relationships are much more complex.

"One of the objectives of this project is investigating historical patterns of harmful algal blooms and their linkage to water quality and environmental factors," explained project leader Jiyoung Lee, associate professor of environmental health sciences at Ohio State. "By doing this, we can better understand and predict the future of HABs and water safety in the Lake Erie community with the impact of changing climate and environmental factors."

Liang and his group analyzed nine environmental factors, including solar radiation, wind speed, precipitation, nitrogen concentration, water temperature and water quality in Lake Erie from 2002 to 2012. Then the larger research team used data from the sensor onboard the European Space Agency's Envisat satellite MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) to examine how the color of the lake water changed during those years -- an indication of the concentration of the toxic blue-green algae present in HABs.

The researchers examined the environmental drivers by season, and found that wind speed affected the spread of algal blooms consistently throughout spring, summer and fall. Seasons of low winds led to larger blooms. That's because when wind speed is low, lake water is more still, and algae can more easily float to the top and form thick mats that spread along the lake surface.

Sunlight, meanwhile, was important in the spring and summer as a source of energy for the algae. Precipitation was very important in the summer and the winter, when rains and melting snow boosted runoff and delivered nitrogen and phosphorus, which algae use as food sources, to the lake.

As the project continues, the researchers hope to get a better understanding of how the variables relate to each other, and explore the notion of weather and climate as factors in a kind of "early warning system" for HABs.

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Global warming's influence on extreme weather

Understanding the cause-and-effect relationship between global warming and record-breaking weather requires asking precisely the right questions.

Extreme climate and weather events such as record high temperatures, intense downpours and severe storm surges are becoming more common in many parts of the world. But because high-quality weather records go back only about 100 years, most scientists have been reluctant to say if global warming affected particular extreme events.

On Wednesday, Dec. 17, at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting in San Francisco, Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science at the Stanford School of Earth Sciences, will discuss approaches to this challenge in a talk titled "Quantifying the Influence of Observed Global Warming on the Probability of Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events." He will focus on weather events that -- at the time they occur -- are more extreme than any other event in the historical record.

Diffenbaugh emphasizes that asking precisely the right question is critical for finding the correct answer.

"The media are often focused on whether global warming caused a particular event," said Diffenbaugh, who is a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. "The more useful question for real-world decisions is: 'Is the probability of a particular event statistically different now compared with a climate without human influence?'"

Diffenbaugh said the research requires three elements: a long record of climate observations; a large collection of climate model experiments that accurately simulate the observed variations in climate; and advanced statistical techniques to analyze both the observations and the climate models.

One research challenge involves having just a few decades or a century of high-quality weather data with which to make sense of events that might occur once every 1,000 or 10,000 years in a theoretical climate without human influence.

But decision makers need to appreciate the influence of global warming on extreme climate and weather events.

"If we look over the last decade in the United States, there have been more than 70 events that have each caused at least $1 billion in damage, and a number of those have been considerably more costly," said Diffenbaugh. "Understanding whether the probability of those high-impact events has changed can help us to plan for future extreme events, and to value the costs and benefits of avoiding future global warming."

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In the mood to trade? Weather may influence institutional investors' stock decisions

Weather changes may affect how institutional investors decide on stock plays, according to a new study by a team of finance researchers. Their findings suggest sunny skies put professional investors more in a mood to buy, while cloudy conditions tend to discourage stock purchases.

The researchers conclude that cloudier days increase the perception that individual stocks and the Dow Jones Industrials are overpriced, increasing the inclination for institutions to sell.

The research paper, "Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns," has been published in the January 2015 issue of The Review of Financial Studies. The research was collaborated by Case Western Reserve University's Dasol Kim and three other finance professors (William Goetzmann of Yale University, Alok Kumar of University of Miami and Qin Wang of University of Michigan-Dearborn).

Institutional investors represent large organizations, such as banks, mutual funds, labor union funds and finance or insurance companies that make substantial investments in stocks. Kim said the results of the study are surprising, given that professional investors are well regarded for their financial sophistication.

"We focus on institutional investors because of the important role they have in how stock prices are formed in the markets," said Kim, assistant professor of banking and finance at Case Western Reserve's Weatherhead School of Management. "Other studies have already shown that ordinary retail investors are susceptible to psychological biases in their investment decisions. Trying to evaluate similar questions for institutional investors is challenging, because relevant data is hard to come by."

Building on previous findings from psychological studies about the effect of sunshine on mood, the researchers wanted to learn how mood affects professional investor opinions on their stock market investments.

By linking responses to a survey of investors from the Yale Investor Behavior Project of Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller and institutional stock trade data with historical weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the researchers concluded aggregated data shows that seasonably sunnier weather leads to optimistic responses and a willingness to buy.

The research accounts for differences in weather across regions of the country and seasons. They show that these documented mood effects also influence stock prices, and that the observed impact does not persist for long periods of time.

A summary of the research was also recently featured at The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation.

Journal Reference:

W. N. Goetzmann, D. Kim, A. Kumar, Q. Wang. Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns. Review of Financial Studies, 2014; 28 (1): 73 DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhu063

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Offshore wind farms could tame severe weather before they achieve land

Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z. Jacobson have proven that offshore wind farms with 1000's of wind generators might have sapped the energy of three real-existence severe weather, considerably lowering their winds and associated storm surge, and perhaps stopping vast amounts of dollars in damages.

Within the last 24 years, Mark Z. Jacobson, a professor of civil and environment engineering at Stanford, continues to be creating a complex computer model to review polluting of the environment, energy, climate and weather. A current use of the model is to simulate the introduction of severe weather. Another is to figure out how much energy wind generators can extract from global wind power.

Considering these recent model studies and as a direct consequence of severe weather Sandy and Katrina, he stated, it had been natural to question: What can happen if your hurricane experienced a sizable variety of offshore wind generators? Would the power extraction because of the storm spinning the turbines' rotor blades slow the winds and diminish the hurricane, or would the hurricane destroy the turbines?

So he worked out developing the model further and replicating what could happen if your hurricane experienced a massive wind farm stretching many miles offshore and across the coast. Amazingly, he discovered that the wind generators could disrupt a hurricane enough to lessen peak wind speeds by as much as 92 miles per hour and reduce storm surge by as much as 79 percent.

The research, carried out by Jacobson, and Cristina Archer and Willett Kempton from the College of Delaware, was released online in Character Global Warming.

The scientists simulated three severe weather: Sandy and Isaac, which struck New You are able to and New Orleans, correspondingly, this year and Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005.

"We discovered that when wind generators can be found, they decelerate the outer rotation winds of the hurricane," Jacobson stated. "This feeds to decrease wave height, which reduces movement of air toward the middle of the hurricane, growing the central pressure, which slows the winds from the entire hurricane and disappears it faster."

Within the situation of Katrina, Jacobson's model says a range of 78,000 wind generators from the coast of recent Orleans might have considerably destabilized the hurricane prior to it made landfall.

Within the computer model, when Hurricane Katrina arrived at land, its simulated wind speeds had decreased by 36-44 meters per second (between 80 and 98 miles per hour) and also the storm surge had decreased by as much as 79 percent.

For Hurricane Sandy, the model forecasted a wind speed reduction by 35-39 meters per second (between 78 and 87 miles per hour) and around 34 percent reduction in storm surge.

Jacobson appreciates that, within the U . s . States, there's been political potential to deal with setting up a couple of hundred offshore wind generators, not to mention hundreds of 1000's. But he thinks you will find two financial incentives that may motivate this type of change.

The first is the decrease in hurricane damage cost. Damage from severe severe weather, triggered by high winds and storm surge-related flooding, can encounter the vast amounts of dollars. Hurricane Sandy, for example, triggered roughly $82 billion in damage across three states.

Second, Jacobson stated, the wind generators would purchase themselves in the long run by producing normal electricity yet still time reducing polluting of the environment and climatic change, and supplying energy stability.

"The turbines may also reduce damage if your hurricane comes through," Jacobson stated. "These 4 elements, each by themselves, lessen the cost to society of offshore turbines and really should be adequate to motivate their development."

An alternate arrange for safeguarding seaside metropolitan areas involves building massive seawalls. Jacobson stated that although these might stop bad weather surge, they would not impact wind speed substantially. The price of these, too, is important, with estimations running between $10 billion and $40 billion per installation.

Current turbines can withstand wind speeds as high as 112 miles per hour, which is incorporated in the selection of a category two to three hurricane, Jacobson stated. His study indicates that the existence of massive turbine arrays will probably prevent hurricane winds from reaching individuals speeds.

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New NASA Van Allen Probes findings assisting to improve space weather models

Using data from NASA's Van Allen Probes, scientists have examined and enhanced one to assist forecast what is happening within the radiation atmosphere of near-Earth space -- a location seething with fast-moving contaminants along with a space weather system that varies as a result of incoming energy and contaminants in the sun.

NASA's Van Allen Probes orbit through two giant radiation devices that surround Earth. Their findings help to improve computer simulations of occasions within the devices that may affect technology wide.

When occasions within the two giant raspberry braid of radiation around Earth -- known as the Van Allen radiation devices -- make the devices to swell and electrons to accelerate to 99 % the rate of sunshine, nearby satellites can seem to be the results. Researchers ultimately wish to have the ability to predict these changes, which requires knowledge of what can cause them.

Now, two teams of related research released within the Geophysical Research Letters enhance these goals. By mixing new data in the Van Allen Probes having a high-powered computer model, the brand new research supplies a robust method to simulate occasions within the Van Allen devices.

"The Van Allen Probes are gathering great dimensions, however they can't let you know what's happening everywhere simultaneously,Inch stated Geoff Reeves, an area researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory, or LANL, in Los Alamos, N.M., a co-author on from the recent papers. "We want models to supply a context, to explain the entire system, in line with the Van Allen Probe findings."

Just before the launch from the Van Allen Probes in August 2012, there have been no operating spacecraft made to collect real-time information within the radiation devices. Knowledge of what could be happening in almost any locale was made to depend mainly on interpretation historic data, particularly individuals in the early the nineteen nineties collected through the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite, or CRRES.

Let's suppose meteorologists wished to predict the temperature on March 5, 2014, in Washington, D.C. however the only information available was from a number of dimensions produced in March during the last seven years up and lower the New England. That isn't exactly enough information to determine whether you have to put on your hat and mitts on a day within the nation's capital.

Fortunately, we've a lot more historic information, appliances allow us to predict the elements and, obviously, countless thermometers in almost any given city to determine temperature instantly. The Van Allen Probes is one step toward gathering more details about space weather within the radiation devices, but they don't have the opportunity to observe occasions everywhere at the same time. So researchers make use of the data they are in possession of open to build computer simulations that complete the gaps.

The current work centers around using Van Allen Probes data to enhance a 3-dimensional model produced by researchers at LANL, known as DREAM3D, which means Dynamic Radiation Atmosphere Assimilation Model in 3 Dimensions. So far the model depended heavily around the averaged data in the CRRES mission.

Among the recent papers, released February. 7, 2014, provides a procedure for gathering real-time global dimensions of chorus waves, that are essential in supplying energy to electrons within the radiation devices. They in comparison Van Allen Probes data of chorus wave behavior within the devices to data in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Polar-revolving about Operational Environment Satellites, or POES, flying underneath the devices at low altitude. By using this data plus some other historic good examples, they correlated the reduced-energy electrons falling from the devices as to the was happening directly within the devices.

"After we established the connection between your chorus waves and also the stressfull electrons, we are able to make use of the POES satellite constellation -- that has a number of satellites revolving about Earth and obtain great coverage from the electrons being released from the devices," stated Los Alamos researcher Yue Chen, first author from the chorus waves paper. "Mixing that data having a couple of wave dimensions from one satellite, we are able to remotely sense what is happening using the chorus waves through the whole belt."

The connection between your stressfull electrons and also the chorus waves doesn't have a 1-to-one precision, however it provides a significantly narrower selection of options for what is happening within the devices. Within the metaphor of looking for the temperature for Washington on March 5, it's just like you still did not possess a thermometer within the city itself, but can produce a better estimate from the temperature as you have dimensions from the dewpoint and humidity inside a nearby suburb.

The 2nd paper describes a procedure of enhancing the DREAM3D model with data in the chorus wave technique, in the Van Allen Probes, and from NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer, or ACE, which measures contaminants in the photo voltaic wind. Los Alamos scientists in comparison simulations using their model -- which now could incorporate real-time information the very first time -- to some photo voltaic storm from October 2012.

"It was a amazing and dynamic storm," stated lead author Weichao Tu at Los Alamos. "Activity peaked two times during the period of the storm. The very first time the short electrons were completely destroyed -- it had been a quick give up. The 2nd time many electrons were faster substantially. There have been a 1000 occasions more high-energy electrons inside a couple of hrs."

Tu and her team went the DREAM3D model while using chorus wave information by including findings in the Van Allen Probes and ACE. The researchers discovered that their computer simulation produced by their model recreated a celebration much like the October 2012 storm.

In addition the model assisted explain the various results of the various peaks. Throughout the very first peak, there simply were less electrons around to become faster.

However, throughout the first areas of the storm the photo voltaic wind funneled electrons in to the devices. So, throughout the 2nd peak, there have been more electrons to accelerate.

"That provides us some confidence within our model," stated Reeves. "And, more to the point, it provides us confidence that we're beginning to know what's happening within the radiation devices."

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Weather changes might be associated with stroke hospitalization, dying

Stroke hospitalization and dying rates may go up and down with alterations in environment temperature and dew point, based on research presented in the American Stroke Association's Worldwide Stroke Conference 2014.

"Weather conditions are not something people would typically connect with stroke risk however, we have found conditions are one of the multiple factors which are connected with stroke hospitalizations," stated Judith H. Lichtman, Ph.D., M.P.H., study author as well as an connect professor in Epidemiology in the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Conn.

Scientists recognized a countrywide sample of 134,510 people, 18 many older, accepted to hospitals in '09-10 for ischemic stroke (triggered with a bloodstream clot that blocks bloodstream flow in or resulting in the mind). Then they acquired temperature and dew point data throughout the period.

They found:

Bigger daily temperature changes and greater average dew point (showing greater air moisture) were connected with greater stroke hospitalization rates.Lower average annual temps were connected with stroke hospitalizations and dying.With every 1?F rise in climate, there is b .86 percent reduction in the chances of stroke hospitalization along with a 1.1 % reduction in the chances of dying within the hospital after stroke.Increases in daily temperature fluctuation and average dew point were connected with elevated likelihood of stroke hospitalization, although not with dying within the hospital.

"This research indicates that meteorological factors for example daily fluctuations in temperature and elevated humidity might be triggers that increase stroke hospitalizations," Lichtman stated. "People in danger of stroke might want to do not be uncovered to significant temperature changes and dew point and, of course, be ready to act rapidly when they or someone they are fully aware encounters stroke signs and signs and symptoms.

"Future research is required to better comprehend the expected outcomes of alterations in climate conditions, in addition to explore potential systems with this association."

Stroke risks that may be transformed, treated or controlled include: high bloodstream pressure smoking cigarettes diabetes carotid or any other artery disease peripheral artery disease atrial fibrillation other cardiovascular disease sickle cell disease high bloodstream cholesterol poor diet physical lack of exercise weight problems and excessive drinking.

Stroke signs and signs and symptoms are facial drooping, arm weakness, speech difficulty, sudden numbness or weakness from the leg, arm or face, sudden confusion or trouble understanding, sudden trouble seeing in either eyes, sudden trouble walking, lightheadedness, lack of balance or coordination, and sudden severe headache without any known cause.

Co-authors are: Erica C. Leifheit-Limson, .D., and Ray B. Goldstein, M.D.

The research was funded through the Yale School of Public Health.

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Extreme weather triggered by global warming decides distribution of bugs, study shows

As global warming is advancing, the temperature in our planet increases. Many of the essential for the big number of creatures which are cold-blooded (ectothermic), including bugs. Their body's temperature is ultimately based on the ambient temperature, and also the same therefore is applicable towards the efficiency and speed of the vital biological processes.

But could it be alterations in climate or frequency of utmost temperature problems that possess the finest effect on species distribution? It was the questions that several Danish and Australian scientists made the decision to look at in many insect species.

Johannes Overgaard, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus College, Denmark, Michael R. Kearney and Ary A. Hoffmann, Melbourne College, Australia, lately released the outcomes of those studies within the journal Global Change Biology. The outcomes demonstrate that it's particularly the extreme temperature occasions that comprise the distribution of both tropical and temperate species. Thus global warming affects ectotermic creatures mainly because more periods of utmost weather are required later on.

Fruit flies were patterned

The scientists examined 10 fruit fly types of the genus Drosophila modified to tropical and temperate parts of Australia. First they examined the temps that the species can sustain growth and reproduction, and they found the limitations of tolerance for cold and hot temps.

"This is actually the very first time ever where we've been in a position to compare the results of extremes and alterations in average conditions inside a rigorous manner across several species," mentions Ary Hoffmann.

According to this understanding and understanding from the present distribution from the 10 species then they examined if distribution was correlated towards the temps needed for growth and reproduction in other words restricted to their ability to tolerate extreme temperature conditions.

"The solution was unambiguous: it's the species' ability to tolerate very hot or cold days that comprise their present distribution," states Johannes Overgaard.

Therefore, it is the ultimate weather occasions, for example prolonged high temperatures or very cold weather, that amounted to the bugs their existence, not a rise in climate.

Drastic changes available

With this particular information in hands, the scientists could then model how distributions are required to alter if global warming continues for the following a century.

Most terrestrial creatures experience temperature variation on daily and periodic time scale, and they're modified to those conditions. Thus, for any species to keep its existence under different temperature conditions you will find two simple conditions that must definitely be met. First of all, the temperature should from time to time be so that the species can grow and reproduce, and next, the temperature must not be so extreme the population's survival is threatened.

In temperate climate for instance, you will find many species that are modified to pass through low temps during the cold months, after which grow and reproduce within the summer time. In warmer environments, the task might be quite contrary. Here, the species might endure high temps throughout the dry hot summer time, while growth and reproduction mainly happens throughout the mild and wet winter period.

The end result was discouraging for those 10 species.

"Global warming can lead to less cold days or weeks, and therefore allow species to maneuver toward greater latitudes. However global warming also results in a greater incidence to very hot days and our model therefore forecasts the distribution of those species will disappear to under half their present distribution"states Johannes Overgaard.

"Actually, our forecasts are that some species would disappear entirely within the next couple of decades, even whether they have a reasonably wide distribution that presently covers 100s of kilometers," adds Ary Hoffmann.

"Although no 10 species analyzed are usually regarded as either dangerous or advantageous microorganisms for human society, the outcomes indicate that distribution of numerous insect species is going to be transformed significantly, and it'll most likely also affect most of the species which have particular social or commercial importance ," finishes Johannes Overgaard.

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Another intending to rainwater: Top worst weather places on the planet

Ever wondered what places on the planet feel the worst weather? Erectile dysfunction Darack has. His article, "The Ten Worst Weather Places on the planet,Inch featured within this month's problem of Weatherwise magazineattempts to title the very best ten places on the planet that constantly feel the most extreme weather. Inverting our passion for "the grass is definitely eco-friendly" lists, (best beaches, places to reside, vacation, etc.), Darack looks into the very best ten places on the planet using the worst weather.

Darack defines "bad" weather, exactly what a "place" includes, and also the research into the conditions themselves. However, because of the possible lack of comprehensive global meteorological research, mainly in the toughest environments in which the risk to human existence is important, Darack depends on the accessible data as well as an effort to become objective.

Oymyakon, Republic of Sakha, Russian Siberia ranks number ten out there. It's been recorded, however with dispute, that Oymyakon has arrived at the cheapest temperature of Earth outdoors of Antarctica and also the very coldest permanently lived on place at -89.9?F. Normally, it drops to -50?F every evening. Also, it is among the places in the world using the finest annual swing rising to 86?F throughout the summer time.

Number six out there is Gandom-e Beryan, Dasht-e Lut, Iran, which is renowned for the most popular land surface temperature ever recorded. Using data from NASA's Earth Watching System's Aqua satellite, calculating your skin temperature from the planet, Gandom-e Beryan arrived at an astounding 159.3?F during the period of 2003-2009.

Next we go to the entire shoreline of Antarctica, which stands at number 3, less for that temperature, although very freezing, for the storms. The driest region meeting the earth's most tumultuous sea, the Southern Sea, leads to almost constant storms racing round the region. Additionally, extreme katabatic wind is another factor. At Cape Dension in Commonwealth Bay in 1995 a wind speed of 129mph was measured. The greatest wind speed ever recorded in Antarctica was 199mph.

Discover which other areas made their email list by being able to access "The Ten Worst Weather Places on the planetInch free before the finish of December 2013: http://world wide web.weatherwise.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2013/November-December%202013/10_worst_full.html

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New phone alerts for extreme weather prevents casualties in India

When Cyclone Phailin hit India at the end of 2013 it grew to become the biggest storm to batter the subcontinent in on the decade. The storm, formally considered a Category 5 tropical cyclone, affected greater than 12 million individuals India and neighboring nations, and needed mass evacuations.

These evacuations revealed a sudden requirement for a highly effective alert system that could forewarn a lot of the population. A brand new paper released in Atmospheric Science Letters particulars how information technology undergraduates have produced image based cell phone alerts, attached to the Weather Research and Predicting system.

India includes a cell phone customer base exceeding 929 million people which is likely to touch 1.15 billion through the finish of 2014. A reminder system produced for mobiles could achieve an believed 97% of people..

The paper particulars how throughout the 2013 storm the pc researchers could track its genesis, progression and landfall. By transforming these details into images appropriate for phones, they produced a predicting and warning system available to regular people.

"Cyclone alerts can help to save lives and property, but should be readily available,Inch stated Dr. Sitting Ghosh. "The worldwide thought of India's emerging IT prowess is uneven. It's regarded as basically a producing hub however, our article puts the nation's statistical literacy to practical use. The simple-to-use Weather Research and Predicting model remains limited for an elite number of customers, for example atmospheric researchers and weather forecasters. Our research explores the way the WRF forecast could be interfaced with mobile telephony with a deep transmission even just in rural pockets asia.Inch

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Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier responsive to weather variability

New research released in Science this month indicates the loss of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is a lot more prone to weather and sea variability than in the beginning thought. Findings with a team of researchers at British Antarctic Survey, along with other institutions, show large fluctuations within the sea warmth in Pine Island Bay. They learned that oceanic melting from the ice shelf into that the glacier flows decreased by 50 percent between 2010 and 2012, which might have been because of a La Nin? weather event.

Pine Island Glacier has thinned continuously throughout past decades driven by an acceleration in the flow. The acceleration is regarded as triggered by loss from the floating ice shelf produced because the glacier 35mm slides in to the ocean. Comprehending the processes driving ice shelf loss and also the glacier's fact is answer to assessing just how much it'll lead to rising ocean levels.

It is known much from the loss is because of an in-depth oceanic inflow of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) around the continental shelf neighbouring the glacier. This warmer water then gets into a cavity underneath the ice shelf melting it from below.

The passage of the warmer water is made simpler through the unpinning from the ice shelf from an underwater ridge. The ridge had, essentially, behaved like a wall stopping warmer water from dealing with the thickest area of the shelf. This ungrounding event was one of the leading driving forces behind the glacier's rapid change.

In '09, a greater CDW volume and temperature in Pine Island Bay led to a rise in ice shelf melting in comparison towards the before dimensions were drawn in 1994. But findings produced in The month of january 2012, and reported now in Science, reveal that sea melting from the glacier was the cheapest ever recorded. The top thermocline (the layer separating cold surface water and warm deep waters) was discovered to be about 250 metres much deeper in comparison with every other year that dimensions exist.

This decreased thermocline reduces the quantity of warmth flowing within the ridge. High definition simulations from the sea circulation within the ice shelf cavity show the ridge blocks the greatest sea waters from reaching the thickest ice. So its presence improves the ice shelf's sensitivity to climate variability since any alterations in the thermocline can transform the quantity of warmth blocking through.

The fluctuations in temperature recorded through the team might be described by particular weather conditions. In The month of january 2012 the dramatic cooling from the sea round the glacier is thought to become because of a rise in easterly winds triggered with a strong La Nin? event within the tropical Gulf Of Mexico. The winds flow in the west.

The findings suggest there's an intricate interplay between geological, oceanographic and weather processes. The research stresses the significance of both local geology and climate variability in sea melting in this area.

Lead author, Dr Pierre Dutrieux, from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) stated: "We found sea melting from the glacier was the cheapest ever recorded, and under 1 / 2 of that noticed in 2010. This enormous, and unpredicted, variability opposes the common view that the easy and steady sea warming in the area is deteriorating free airline Antarctic Ice Sheet. These results show the ocean-level contribution from the ice sheet is affected by weather variability over an array of time scales."

Co-author, Professor Adrian Jenkins, also from BAS, added: "It's not a lot the sea variability, that is modest in comparison with lots of areas of the sea, however the extreme sensitivity from the ice shelf to such modest alterations in sea qualities that required us unexpectedly. That sensitivity is because of a submarine ridge underneath the ice shelf which was only discovered in '09 when an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle planned the seabed underneath the ice. These new experience claim that the current good reputation for ice shelf melting and loss continues to be a lot more variable than formerly suspected and prone to climate variability driven in the tropics."

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Warm weather deaths forecasted to increase 257 percent in United kingdom by 2050s, experts warn

The amount of annual excess deaths triggered by warm weather in Britain is forecasted to surge by 257% by the center of a lifetime, consequently of global warming and population growth, concludes research released online within the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.

The seniors (75 ) is going to be most in danger, especially in the South and also the Midlands, the findings suggest.

The study team, in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, used time-series regression analysis to chart historic (1993-2006) fluctuations in weather designs and dying rates to characterise the associations between temperature and mortality, by region by age bracket.

Then they applied those to forecasted population increases and native climate to estimate the long run quantity of deaths apt to be triggered by temperature -- cold and hot -- for that 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.

They based their information around the forecasted daily average temps for 2000-09, 2020-29, 2050-59 and 2080-89, produced from the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), and population growth estimations in the Office of National Statistics.

The information indicated a considerably elevated chance of deaths connected with temperature across all parts of the United kingdom, using the seniors most in danger.

The amount of warm weather days is forecasted to increase considerably, tripling in frequency through the mid 2080s, while the amount of cold days is anticipated to fall, but in a less dramatic pace.

In the national level, the dying rate increases just by over 2% for each 1?C increase in temperature over the warmth threshold, having a corresponding 2% rise in the dying rate for each 1?C fall in temperature underneath the cold threshold.

Even without the any adaptive measures, excess deaths associated with warmth could be likely to rise by 257% through the 2050s, from a yearly baseline of 2000, while individuals associated with the cold could be likely to fall by 2% consequently of milder winters, from the current toll close to 41,000, and can still remain significant.

Individuals aged 85 and also over is going to be most in danger, partially consequently of population growth -- forecasted to achieve 89 million through the mid 2080s -- and also the growing proportion of seniors within the population, the authors.

Regional versions will probably persist: London and also the Midlands would be the regions most susceptible to the outcome of warmth, while Wales, its northern border West, Eastern England and also the South are most susceptible to the outcome of cold.

Rising fuel costs could make it harder to adjust to extremes of temperature, while elevated reliance upon active cooling systems could simply finish up driving up energy consumption and worsening the outcome of global warming, the authors.

Better and much more sustainable options might rather include shading, thermal insulation, selection of construction materials implemented in the design stage of urban developments, suggest the authors.

As the dying toll from cold temperature temps will stay greater than that triggered by hot temps, the authors warn that health defense against warm weather will end up progressively necessary -- and vital for that early.

"Because the contribution of population growth and aging on future temperature related health burdens is going to be large, the protection from the seniors will become important,Inch warn the authors, remembering the social changes which have brought to a lot of seniors living by themselves -- a contributory step to our prime dying toll in France within the 2003 heatwave.

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Best weather predicting models examined: Which best predicted September 2013 Colorado surges?

Two College of Iowa scientists lately examined ale the earth's innovative weather predicting models to calculate the Sept. 9-16, 2013 extreme rain fall that triggered severe flooding in Boulder, Colo.

The outcomes, released within the December 2013 problem from the journal Geophysical Research Letters, indicated the predicting models generally carried out well, but additionally left room for improvement.

David Lavers and Gabriele Villarini, scientists at IIHR -- Hydroscience and Engineering, a UI research facility, examined rain fall predictions from eight different global statistical weather conjecture (NWP) models.

Throughout September 2013, Boulder County and surrounding areas experienced severe flooding and high rain leading to deaths, losing houses and companies, and also the promise of a significant disaster.

Following the storms had gone away, Lavers and Villarini made the decision to look at how good a few of the leading NWP models tried. Like a constantly enhancing science, NWP involves integrating current climate conditions through mathematical types of the climate-sea system to forecast future weather. For his or her study, the scientists selected the particular rain fall predictions produced by eight condition-of-the-art global NWP models for that duration of the Colorado surges.

"In an prime position time for you to the big event, the rain fall predictions unsuccessful to capture the persistent character from the event's rain fall," states Lavers, corresponding author as well as an IIHR postdoctoral investigator. "However, the rain fall predictions from Sept. 9 (the very first day from the event) did provide guidance showing a substantial duration of rain fall in Colorado."

"Overall, these models tended to underestimate rain fall amounts and placed the rain fall within the wrong area, despite the fact that they provided a sign that a time of heavy rain fall would affect areas of Colorado," states Gabriele Villarini, study co-author, assistant professor within the UI College of Engineering Department of Civil and Environment Engineering and assistant research engineer at IIHR.

Within their study, Lavers and Villarini used a relatively coarse (getting a comparatively low quantity of pixels) global model output. The UI scientists stress that greater spatial resolution NWP models will probably have taken the rain fall to some greater extent.

States Lavers: "It's wished the ongoing growth and development of finer resolution NWP appliances resolve the complex atmospheric motions in mountainous terrain, like the Rocky Mountain tops, will have the ability to enhance the predicting abilities of these extreme rain fall occasions."

The paper is formally entitled: "Were global statistical weather conjecture systems able to predicting the ultimate Colorado rain fall of 9-16 September 2013?"

The study was based on IIHR, the Iowa Ton Center, and also the U.S. Military Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Assets.

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Picture of methods our weather conditions are impacted by green house gases is really a 'cloudy' one

The warming aftereffect of human-caused green house gases is really a given, but as to the extent are we able to predict its future influence? That's an problem which science is making progress, however the solutions continue to be not even close to exact, say scientists in the Hebrew College of Jerusalem, the united states and Australia who've analyzed the problem and whose work that has just made an appearance within the journal Science.

Indeed, you could state that the image is really a "cloudy" one, because the resolution of the green house gas effect involves multifaceted interactions with cloud cover.

To some degree, aerosols -- contaminants that float in mid-air triggered by dust or pollution, including green house gases -- combat area of the doing harm to results of climate warming by growing the quantity of sunlight reflected from clouds back to space. However, the ways that these aerosols affect climate through their interaction with clouds are complex and incompletely taken by climate models, the scientists. Consequently, the radiative forcing (that's, the disturbance to Earth's "energy budget" in the sun) triggered by human activities is extremely uncertain, which makes it hard to predict the extent of climatic change.

Even though advances have brought to some more detailed knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions as well as their effects on climate, further progress is hampered by limited observational abilities and coarse climate models, states Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld from the Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences in the Hebrew College of Jerusalem, author of this article in Science. Rosenfeld authored this short article in cooperation with Dr. Steven Sherwood from the College of Nsw, Sydney, Dr. Robert Wood from the College of Washington, Dallas, and Dr. Leo Donner of america National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. .

Their recent reports have revealed an infinitely more complicated picture of aerosol-cloud interactions than considered formerly. With respect to the meteorological conditions, aerosols might have dramatic results of either growing or lowering the cloud sun-deflecting effect, the scientists say. In addition, little is famous concerning the unperturbed aerosol level that been around within the preindustrial era. This reference level is essential for calculating the radiative forcing from aerosols.

Also requiring further clarification may be the response from the cloud cover and organization to losing water by rain fall. Knowledge of the development of ice and it is interactions with liquid tiny droplets is much more limited, mainly because of poor capability to appraise the ice-nucleating activity of aerosols and also the subsequent ice-developing processes in clouds.

Explicit computer simulations of those processes even in the scale of a complete cloud or multi-cloud system, not to mention those of the earth, require 100s of hrs around the most effective computer systems available. Therefore, a sufficiently accurate simulation of those processes in a global scale continues to be not practical.

Lately, however, scientists have had the ability to create groundbreaking simulations by which models were developed showing simplified schemes of cloud-aerosol interactions, This method offers the opportunity of model runs that resolve clouds on the global scale for time scales as much as many years, but climate simulations on the scale of the century continue to be not achievable. The model can also be too coarse to solve most of the fundamental aerosol-cloud processes in the scales which they really occur. Enhanced observational exams are required for validating the outcomes of simulations and making certain that modeling developments are on course, the scientists.

Even though it is unfortunate that further progress on understanding aerosol-cloud interactions as well as their effects on weather conditions are restricted to insufficient observational tools and models, experienceing this needed improvement in findings and simulations is at technological achieve, the scientists stress, so long as the financial assets are invested. The amount of effort, they are saying, should match the socioeconomic need for exactly what the results could provide: lower uncertainty in calculating human-made climate forcing and understanding and forecasts of future impacts of aerosols on the climate and weather.

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'Standing on the comet': Rosetta mission will lead to space weather research

A comet-bound spacecraft which has been in sleep mode in excess of 2 yrs is scheduled to wake on the morning of Jan. 20 -- beginning the house stretch of their decade-lengthy journey to some mile-wide ball of rock, dust and ice.

If all goes as planned, Rosetta -- a ecu Space Agency-brought mission which involves College of Michigan engineers and researchers -- would be the first craft to really find a comet in addition to track it to have an extended time period.

The Philae lander will latch onto the main of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in November and also the orbiter will operate before the finish of 2015. No mission has ever attempted this kind of in-depth take a look at one of these simple artefacts from the earliest times of our photo voltaic system.

Engineers at U-M's Space Physics Research Lab built electronic components to have an onboard instrument that's thought is the most sensitive available ever flown wide. Along with a team of scientists will engage in the mission science too.

While the majority of the large questions Rosetta aims to reply to cope with the foundation and evolution from the photo voltaic system, U-M researchers can make a distinctive contribution that may provide very practical experience into the way the sun and planets interface today.

They'll evaluate dimensions taken in the comet to review photo voltaic wind interactions that can result in photo voltaic storms. The photo voltaic wind is really a stream of billed contaminants coming in the sun. Photo voltaic storms are bursts of activity that may threaten astronauts and damage Earth's satellites and electric power grid.

"The way the photo voltaic wind works is among the greatest outstanding questions regarding the photo voltaic system today. By studying the way it interacts with cometary gases, we are able to become familiar with a lot concerning the composition from the photo voltaic wind," stated Tamas Gombosi, the Rollin M. Gerstacker Professor of Engineering within the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences.

Gombosi and the research group are leaders within the area of space weather. One they developed was lately adopted through the national Space Weather Conjecture Center.

In the sun's equator, the wind travels rather gradually, Gombosi stated. It moves faster at high latitudes. Interactions backward and forward types can result in magnetospheric storms. Earth orbits close to the equator, therefore it is difficult to read the fast wind from your standpoint.

"But comets go through everything. Using their help, we are able to read the fast photo voltaic wind," Gombosi stated.

Gombosi along with other U-M scientists will engage in additional Rosetta goals. They'll study and simulate how rapidly the comet outgases material from the nucleus to the tail because it rings round the sun. They'll engage in analyzing what elements have been in the comet's tail, atmosphere and ionosphere, in addition to how quickly the electrified contaminants within the ionosphere are traveling.

Michael Combination, the Freeman Devold Burns Collegiate Research Professor within the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, is really a co-investigator on several instruments. He'll consider the speed where the comet's core is sublimating, or turning from the solid right into a gas, and he'll work on the team that's examining individuals gases. They'll explore the amount of deadly carbon monoxide and co2, for instance. They cannot identify co2 from Earth.

"It's tough to observe a few of the chemical species when they are far and faint. Co2 is most likely the 2nd most abundant species for the most part comets, but it is not been noticed in the 1000's we have checked out from Earth," stated Combination, that has analyzed comets in excess of 3 decades.

Comets -- small rock and ice physiques -- were contained in the nebula that created the photo voltaic system and also have been revolving about since in far, cold devices either just beyond the orbit of Neptune or perhaps a quarter from the distance towards the nearest star. For researchers, they are ancient items which help them know how the photo voltaic system created and developed. They are thought to possess shipped Earth's oceans and possibly the seed products of existence in organic materials.

"People make use of the example it's experienced the freezer within the last 4.5 million many introduced set for convenient study. So we are searching around we are able to at how a way the photo voltaic system was 4.5 billion years back,Inch Combination stated.

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is among the littlest physiques humans have ever attempted to find. Its gravity is all about 1,000 occasions under those of Earth.

"Around the lander, there is a camera that may look straight lower like you are standing and searching in the ground. Plus there is a breathtaking camera that may watch out and find out an image from the horizon. It will be fun to determine what this landscape appears like,Inch Combination stated. "It will be like sitting on a comet."

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Report finds increases in coastal population growth by 2020 likely, putting more people at risk of extreme weather

March 25, 2013

National Coastal Population Report cover.

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If current population trends continue, the already crowded U.S. coast will see population grow from 123 million people to nearly 134 million people by 2020, putting more of the population at increased risk from extreme coastal storms like Sandy and Isaac, which severely damaged infrastructure and property last year.

The projection comes from a new report released today from NOAA with input from the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the report, which analyzed data from the 2010 census, 39 percent of the U.S. population is concentrated in counties directly on the shoreline -- less than 10 percent of the total U.S. land area excluding Alaska, and that 52 percent of the total population lives in counties that drain to coastal watersheds, less than 20 percent of U.S. land area, excluding Alaska. A coastal watershed is an area in which water, sediments, and dissolved material drain to a common coastal outlet, like a bay or the ocean.

The National Coastal Population Report: Populations Trends from 1970 to 2020, issued in partnership with the U.S. Census Bureau, updates and expands a 2004 report that detailed and projected coastal population trends from 1980 to 2008.

“People who live near the shore, and managers of these coastal communities, should be aware of how this population growth may affect their coastal areas over time,” said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for the National Ocean Service. “As more people move to the coast, county managers will see a dual challenge -- protecting a growing population from coastal hazards, as well as protecting coastal ecosystems from a growing population.”

Population density is growing at the coast.

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This report offers coastal managers and other users, for the first time, two perspectives on population growth along the U.S. coast -- the traditional perspective that looks at status and trends throughout counties that drain to coastal watersheds, called Coastal Watershed Counties, and a newer focus that focuses only on those counties that directly border the coast, including the Great Lakes.

“Understanding the demographic context of coastal areas is vital for our nation and helps us to meet the challenges of tomorrow. To help inform policymakers and the public through this report, the Census Bureau developed a new measure of coastal populations,” said James Fitzsimmons, assistant chief of the Census Bureau's population division.

Coastal population statistics in the overall total of 769 Coastal Watershed Counties provide context for coastal water quality and coastal ecosystem health related issues, and data from the 452 of those counties that lie directly on the shoreline, called Coastal Shoreline Counties, can be used to talk about coastal resilience, coastal hazards, and other ocean-resource dependent issues.

The coastal shoreline county data was developed with input from both the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“Whether you’re talking about watershed counties or shoreline counties, the coast is substantially more crowded than the U.S. as a whole,” said report editor Kristen Crossett of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “Population density in shoreline counties is more than six times greater than the corresponding inland counties. And the projected growth in coastal areas will increase population density at a faster rate than the country as a whole.”

The report also found that from 1970 to 2010, Coastal Shoreline Counties population increased by 39 percent, and Coastal Watershed Counties population increased by 45 percent.

The report is available on NOAA’s State of the Coast website, which provides quick facts and more detailed statistics through interactive maps, case studies, and management success stories that highlight what is known about coastal communities, coastal ecosystems, and the coastal economy and about how climate change might impact the coast.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Prepare for severe weather - Be a Force of Nature: know your risk, take action, be an example

March 4, 2013

NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have partnered again this year for National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, March 3 to 9. During the week, NOAA and FEMA are calling on people across the country to Be a Force of Nature in their communities by preparing for severe weather and encouraging others to do so as well. 

Severe weather is far more common than most realize. The five most dangerous severe weather hazards -- tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning, floods and winter storms, can be powerful and damaging. While spring is considered the height of season, severe weather occurs in every month of the year and in all 50 states. In 2012, there were more than 450 weather related fatalities and more than 2,600 injuries.

“Improvements in the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings, and the way we communicate weather threats are helping the public stay safe,” said Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. “But this information can save lives and property only if individuals and communities know when and how to take proper action. Preparing for severe weather is a component of building a Weather-Ready Nation and is a national priority.” 

“Severe weather can happen anytime, anywhere,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “We urge everyone to take steps in advance and to pledge to prepare, take action and share what you have done with others. You can find information on how to prepare for severe weather at Ready.gov.”

Be a Force of Nature - Every one of us can help our communities prepare for extreme weather by following these guidelines:

Know Your Risk:  The first step to becoming weather-ready is to understand the type of hazardous weather that can affect where you live and work, and how the weather could impact you and your family. Every state in the United States has experienced tornadoes and severe weather, so everyone is exposed to some degree of risk. Check the weather forecast regularly and visit Ready.gov/severeweather to learn more about how to be better prepared and how you can protect your family when severe weather strikes. Take Action, Pledge to Prepare: Be a Force of Nature by making sure that you and your family are prepared for severe weather. Pledge to prepare at Ready.gov. Fill out your family communications plan that you can email to yourself, put together an emergency kit, and keep important papers and valuables in a safe place.

Stay informed by having multiple sources for weather alerts such as a NOAA Weather Radio, Weather.gov, and Wireless Emergency Alerts. And, sign up for localized alerts from emergency management officials.

Be an example: Once you have taken action Be a Force of Nature by telling family, friends, and co-workers to do the same. Share the resources and alert systems you discovered through your social media network. Create a preparedness video and post on a video sharing site; post your story through your social media network and comment on a blog. Technology today makes it easier than ever to be a good example and share the steps you took to help us achieve the vision of a Weather-Ready Nation.
Join us today and pledge to prepare for the severe weather in our area.

In partnership, NOAA and FEMA have developed a tool kit that can be found online that includes key information related to severe weather.  Each day of severe weather week, NOAA and FEMA will share key information on preparedness such as how to develop an emergency plan, what to include in a plan, tips to better understand a forecast, and steps to recovery through our social channels. Follow us today.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

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Louis W. Uccellini selected as next director of NOAA’s National Weather Service

February 7, 2013

Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., will become the next assistant NOAA administrator for weather services beginning February 10 and the 16th director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, which marks its 143rd anniversary this Saturday.

“Louis’ leadership within the National Weather Service and his relationship with the U.S. and international weather enterprise allow him to effectively steer the agency forward,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA Administrator.

“It’s an honor to lead such a prestigious agency with the unbeatable mission of protecting lives and livelihoods,” said Uccellini. “The past year had its success stories with superior outlooks, forecasts and warnings, including those for Sandy, but difficulties remain. Our eyes remain locked on the future to ensure a National Weather Service that is second to none and supports a weather-ready nation.

What makes the National Weather Service a prestigious agency with a bold future are the dedicated men and woman who work day in and day out to keep us all informed and safe. They do so in ways that are more public, such as issuing life-saving watches and warnings, and in ways that are less apparent but are vital to our society, such as supporting airline safety and marine transportation to protecting electrical infrastructure from solar storms.”

“I congratulate Dr. Uccellini and look forward to continuing to collaborate with him and the National Weather Service,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “FEMA and the NWS in partnership together prepare communities and local officials for the impacts of weather hazards to save lives and protect property.”

 “Working with a spectrum of partners, including emergency management, the commercial sector, broadcasters, academia and social scientists, we can and will meet the nation’s needs to overcome the very real threats from the increasing severity and frequency of weather and climate extremes,” added Uccellini.

Laura K. Furgione, who served as acting director of the National Weather Service since May 2012, will return as the agency’s deputy director. “Louis has always placed a priority on providing forecast tools to help field offices and national centers be successful. I’m proud to work by his side as we continue supporting our nation-wide team,” said Furgione.

Since 1999, Uccellini has led the NWS’ National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which in 2012 moved to a new state-of-the-art facility in College Park, Md. At NCEP, he was responsible for directing the planning, science and technology, and operational responsibilities related to NCEP’s Central Operations and Environmental Modeling, as well as seven national centers, including the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., and Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. Uccellini is also a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and just completed his term as the society’s president.

Uccellini, 63, began his weather career at the Goddard Space Flight Center's Laboratory for Atmospheres as the section head for the Mesoscale Analysis and Modeling Section in 1978. In 1989, he joined the NWS as chief of the Meteorological Operations Division and then became director of the Office of Meteorology in 1994.

Uccellini received his Bachelor of Science (1971), Master (1972), and Ph.D. (1977) degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He has published more than 60 journal articles and chapters in books, and is known for coauthoring the widely acclaimed two-volume book, Northeast Snowstorms.

A native of Bethpage, N.Y. on Long Island, Dr. Uccellini is a resident of Columbia, Md. He and his wife, Susan, have three children.

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Research finds new way to identify which El Niño events will have biggest impact on U.S. winter weather

February 7, 2013

El Niño, warmer than average waters in the Eastern equatorial Pacific (shown in orange on the map), affects weather around the world. A new study, just published in the February 2013 issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts.

Download here (Credit: NOAA Visualization Lab)

Weather forecasters have long known that El Niño events can throw seasonal climate patterns off kilter, particularly during winter months. Now, new research from NOAA and the University of Washington suggests that a different way to detect El Niño could help forecasters predict the unusual weather it causes.

A network of buoys that spans the Pacific, the TAO-Triton array, observes conditions in the upper ocean and is essential for forecasting El Niño months in advance, and for monitoring it as it grows and decays. A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper.

“When it comes to El Niño’s weather impacts, we are always looking for ways to improve our forecasting skill,” said Harrison. “Our goal is to extract the most useful information to predict El Niño seasonal weather anomalies.”

Harrison and Chiodi looked at all El Niño events that were identified by sea surface temperature measurements since 1979. They then examined satellite imagery for these events and found that a subset of the events showed a sharp dip in heat radiating from the tops of deep convective clouds, an indicator known as outgoing long-wave radiation or OLR. When comparing the El Niño events to historical weather records, the scientists found that the El Niño events with drops in OLR were the ones most likely to play havoc with winter weather.

They also found that El Niño events with no corresponding drop in OLR did not produce statistically significant anomalies in weather patterns. The dip in heat from deep convective clouds usually occurred before winter, so the timing of the signal could help forecasters improve winter seasonal outlooks, the scientists said.

“By sorting El Niño events into two categories, one with OLR changes and one without, forecasters may be able to produce winter seasonal outlooks with more confidence than previously thought possible,” Harrison said.

El Niño refers to a warming of waters along the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Through its influence on the atmosphere, El Niño shifts tropical rainfall patterns which causes further shifts in weather around the globe, including milder winters in western Canada and parts of the northern United States and wetter winters in the some southern states.

Industry sectors from energy and construction to transportation and tourism are keenly interested in how El Niño will affect their costs. El Niño-influenced weather can affect fuel oil demand, travel delays, and retail sales. Better accuracy in El Niño predictions could help industry to prepare for its impacts more efficiently.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels at social media channels.

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